I, personally - almost always pick swiftness. Treads has these two reasons to be bought:
- Magic Resist
- Tenacity
So, as a top laner, the only time I see mercury treas as useful is if
A. If my Opponent is heavy AP (even then it is still debatable on how I'm doing in the Lane)
B. If they have a lot of cc OTHER than a slow.
C. If that cc is up very often.
If the enemy jungler happens to have these qualities, I may also consider Mercury Treads.
So again, as a Top laner, there is almost never a time where I personally would pick not swiftness (except maybe on Nasus, cause he tends to be the focus of the enemy TEAM cc, so its different, but still depends). Its just that most cc in that area are slows - Tenacity reduces the duration of the slow, swiftness reduces the size of the slow.
Now, in mid lane or bot lane, or even on a jungler, the check list is similar, but champions who meet the criteria appear more often.
Disclaimer - I'm Bronze, please don't judge me.