https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/project/trueskill-ranking-system/
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/publication/trueskilltm-a-bayesian-skill-rating-system/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system
https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Rating_of_Chess_Players_Past_and_Pre.html?id=syjcPQAACAAJ
I guess that's a problem with algorithms that even the programmers don't understand.
No... its understood quite well. There are well documented and have been peer reviewed for years as well as a massive amount of data that's generated by the Trillions of games played. Riots system CAN BE DONE BETTER! But its not broken and any one telling you it is full of shit.
Players are constantly wrong and don't even take a second to research the topic before spewing BS random guesses all over the boards to justify their raiting not matching their personal self expectation. Most players consider their "skill level" to only be their best games. In form, when they play well. Its commonly assumed as the mean average for their top end performances, when a MMR system is the mean average for ALL performances.
Toxicicty is a issue for a competitive ladder, behaviors that throw losses into the game will in MMR just impact that accounts average performance and lower them on the ladder. Player behavior systems are what get used to remove a player from the que, bans and so on. MMR is objective and looks at the result of a match. Player systems will look at the individual details of a match, chat logs, if some ones running it down mid, if some ones refusing to play as a teammate to win, some one rage quit or afked, sold off all their items. ETC. Many times you need a subjective observation to really track down an issue case as automation for subjective judgment is far more complex then a MMR system.
Players consistently consider 3 games a streak. Iits biased and terrible logic.
https://www.random.org/coins/?num=100&cur=60-usd.0025c-ct
Flip 100 coins. Your legendary Fair "50% odds". Gee golly gosh monkeys! a streak starting at 3 for heads or tails shows up ALL THE TIME. But a streak of 15? Almost never see that.
Lets look at some Binary results of W or L.
So 3 for a streak is just a weak number being something like 2^3 = 8. That's what 7 to 1 odds to see if your looking at literally just 3 games? There 1 possible outcome out of all 8 possible combinations you can make that's gonna be 3 wins. This gets exponetionally smaller as you up the # of possible results, for example 2^4, one more game? For a 3 streak would be what. 16 ways to make combinations. WWWW.WWWl. LWWW. So... look for a streak of 3 in a set of 4 games and you end up with... i think 4.333 to 1 odds?
I am bad with factorials and struggle with statistics so I may have provided incorrect Odds.
and MMR systems don't care about order? WWlW is the same as WWWL unless you hit a K factor slowdown. +5+5+5-5= 10. -5+5+5+5=10. +5+5-5+5 = 10. Its basic addition for your Rating point changes, Yea WE and K impact it but the rules are the same for everbody. 100 random players with a raiting of 1200 with K at X value vs 100 1400 with K at Y will generate the same result every single time for the adjustment, the math has rules it obeys the same way every time.
Also no shit you see a streak end when you have a awfull teammate. Your more likely to lose when you have crappy teammates. Should be self evident? Like OMG we by far where the better team and stomped them super hard. Thats why we lost? Vs. Some one sucked it up, behaved inmautrly and I had a crappy game because of it. That's why we lost.
No idea why players think, oh my team of 5 and their team of 5... my team better be ALL better players then the other 5. That's fair? A reasonable expectation. 1-2 folks on your team are gonna be outclassed. when its 3-4 its usually GG.
And again back to my comment about importance of player behavior systems.
Look at what a 10% player population looks like in contect of 5v5 games. 10 slots. your 1. 9 open slots. Lets measure 10% toxicity. If only 1 in 10 players is a negtivive teammate.
https://www.wizards.com/dnd/dice/dice.htm Go to D 10. Set it to be 9 dice, this represents all the other players in a game. Pick 1 number. I am going to use 1 for mine. 1 has 10% odds of RNG being rolled on a D10.
Roll(9d10)+0:
1,5,6,4,2,1,8,4,2,+0
Total:33
Roll(9d10)+0:
8,6,10,2,6,3,8,9,4,+0
Total:56
Roll(9d10)+0:
9,10,4,4,10,10,8,1,10,+0
Total:66
Roll(9d10)+0:
4,9,5,6,1,10,6,10,8,+0
Total:59
Roll(9d10)+0:
9,7,1,5,1,2,8,6,5,+0
Total:44
4 out of 5 games had toxic players at a rate as low as 10%.
Many players would think oh 1 in 10 games might see a troll. when... well 10% is a massive number your gonna find in your games almost always. So... player behavior needs to be a constant focus and consistently negative players have to be removed for competitive integrity.
Also Darth. Nothing personal. I have no beef with you. Please take any harsh language to never be directed personally at you, I'm just venting a bit.
I just like numbers and dislike how fucking difficult it is to try and convince players to care about the behavior systems riot uses because MMR is a proven system. Just don't get why its so difficult for people to grasp that in team PvP games you can bet that The P impacts gameplay. Game can be good but if P is filled with garbage the gameplay is... garbage. Its really simple. So... if you care about the game being better. Behavior systems for Ranked Need a rehaul more then anything else. I hope managed to convince you on this.