Vanguard Update: Likely Candidates, From What We Know.
Who are the candidates?
The Vanguards on the Subclass List are:

What are the goals of the Vanguard Kit Updates? "We want to give tanks more mastery and skill expression, as well as unique identities."
Who is most likely to be cut from the get-go?
X
- With a number of reworks in his history, Gragas' kit already accomplishes the update's goals pretty well.
X
- Being on the Tier 1 VGU list, he is unlikely to get a lot of attention before his VGU happens.
X
- Gnar has a modern kit that already accomplishes the goals for the update. also, he is only a Vanguard sometimes. ;)
X
- As Meddler recently mentioned, Rek'Sai is close to a mini-rework that will push her from Vanguard towards Diver.
X
- Having had a very successful VGU, Sion will likely get very little attention.
So, what are the chances for the remaining seven?
- One Trick Pony, likely not something that could be solved with small changes. GOOD Chance for large-scope changes.
- One Trick Pony, but has little but ambient damage after initiation. PRETTY GOOD Chance for large-scope changes, but perhaps smaller scope mechanical changes could do just enough for him.
- Not the worst in the world, but niche/skill expression/in-fight high moments could all use a little something. PRETTY GOOD Chance for large-scope changes.
- Decent uniqueness, but not a lot of skill expression/high moments to go with that. MODERATE Chance for large-scope changes.
- It's really hard to say with Nautilus, but I'd wager it's a coin-flip between larger- and smaller scope changes. LOW-TO-MODERATE Chance for large-scope changes.
- Leona has an ok niche and somewhat more skill expression than other older Vanguards. LOW-ish Chance for large-scope changes.
- After the Juggernaut Update way way back, Skarner returns! This would be an opportunity to revisit areas where his last update fell short. Although his update wasn't as successful as others have been, his kit is in a somewhat decent spot, all considered. Smaller changes might be enough until a VGU a few years from now. LOW-ish Chance for large-scope changes.
Other Factors: In exploring the update designers could find a REALLY exciting direction/mechanic for a specific champion that could push it to be among the large-scope updates despite being Moderate or Low-ish priority. A Curse-mechanic tests really well on Amumu? Goo-y terrain-interaction for Zac? A way to make Nautilus 100% more Titan-sized? The PERFECT direction for Skarner? Discovering things like that would make a champion a lot more likely to jump right up to qualifying for a large-scope update. On the other hand, a champion that would have been prioritized for work could be demoted if they really can't find a good direction for them, or if it turns out that the scope would have to be too big to fit into a class-update.
In Summary Most Likely Large-Scope Updates:
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Likely For Smaller-Scope Changes:
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Edit: It is possible that Maokai also could be a candidate, despite primarily being a Warden. He has more Vanguard qualities than most Wardens, (e.g. twisted advance) and his picture did show up on the Devblog.
and
no other champion needs another ability for one of their other abilities to do anything. And speaking of his E, Rammus has one of the weaker of the 3 taunts in the game, single target when
can get multiple targets but it cost a lot of energy and
has it in the form of an ult with a high cdr.
then Rammus loses and threat in the game besides a short taunt. If he is ahead against a full AD comp it then becomes hard for them to fight him if they don't 1 v 5 him. Rammus has little interaction with how he fights people, and almost no variation in the fighting style. He is super niche and if the enemy builds armor shred then he becomes useless since he gets damaged too quickly without being able to be helpful