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"Games are shorter and more snowbally than ever"

Glory ln Death··6 votes·1,949 views

From League of Graphs:

  • Patch 6.22 and before (look at match duration)

http://www.leagueofgraphs.com/img/infographics/patch-6-22.jpg?t=412933

  • Patch 6.23 to present

http://www.leagueofgraphs.com/img/infographics/patch-6-23.jpg?t=412933

Prior to Patch 6.23 (for at least the entirety of Season 6 - I checked), ~54% of games ended before 30 minutes, with ~25% ending between 20 and 25 minutes. Since then, the percentage of games ending before 30 minutes has dropped to 39%, with ~25% of games ending between 30 and 35 minutes. Only 15-18% of games now end between 20 and 25 minutes.

What does this mean?

SINCE PRESEASON AND THE ADDITION OF SO MUCH "SNOWBALLING", AVERAGE GAME LENGTH HAS INCREASED BY ABOUT 10 MINUTES.

In addition, all the way back through the end of Season 5 (as far back as I can see the infographs on my phone), the % of games won off of First Blood/First Turret/First Dragon, etc have been consistent within about 2%. If the game were actually getting more snowbally, those numbers would have increased drastically, especially First Inhibitor and First Baron, since those are directly influenced by First Turret and Dragon (if snowballing from the First Turret Blood and Dragons was stronger now than in the past, it would make Inhibitors even easier to get, which would make winning even easier than in the past - not to mention how there was virtually no change in win % when the "OP, snowballing" Elemental Drakes were added).

Now, I haven't seen the statistics from before Season 5 (not sure if League of Graphs just doesn't have them or I just can't figure out how to get to them on my phone), but since Preseason, the game has actually been statistically less snowbally and had longer games on average than it has for at least a year.

So, please - stop the circlejerk.

35 Comments

Penns14 votes

Its not about actual game length imo, its about when games are pretty much decided. Gank and first tower bot (+ drake) = game basically over unless maybe both top and mid are winning.

watch the bush7 votes

Exactly this. It never used to be this way.

vOmvbrawfU2 votes

IT'S NO DIFFERENT. It's like a fucking 3% win difference since they added first tower gold. FFS stop circlejerking and think for yourself.

Critmaster Garen6 votes

[{quoted}](name=Sharkbait ohaha,realm=NA,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=VuwUsZi4,comment-id=00010001,timestamp=2017-02-08T18:13:53.108+0000)

IT'S NO DIFFERENT. It's like a fucking 3% win difference since they added first tower gold. FFS stop circlejerking and think for yourself.

3% winrate can make the difference between a trash ter champion and a meta champion.

in case of turret frst blood, the win% was already high before they added the bounty. but it might have still allowed teams to recover more often. now that the win % is even higher, it made an already bad situation worse.

vOmvbrawfU1 votes

I did not see 1 person bitching about getting first tower being OP before. Even though it was only 3% lower of a winrate than it is now. Why? Because first tower gold doesn't mean shit. The reason first tower winrate is so high is because the team getting first tower is the team that is winning. Because they're better. So they continue to win.

Critmaster Garen5 votes

[{quoted}](name=Sharkbait ohaha,realm=NA,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=VuwUsZi4,comment-id=0001000100000000,timestamp=2017-02-08T18:33:22.203+0000)

I did not see 1 person bitching about getting first tower being OP before. Even though it was only 3% lower of a winrate than it is now. Why? Because first tower gold doesn't mean shit.

it makes a winrate 73% difference. i wouldnt say "doesnt mean shit" to that.

and people have ben critisizing game pacing for a long time. not jsut game time. but the fact that games have been snowballs to either side. if theyre 25 minute snowballs or 20 minute snowballs doesnt matter much. in both cases it feels terrible.

it started when riot increased death timers, and it still feels like shit.

EndlessSorcerer2 votes

I'd say the bigger issue is the increased importance on securing FB tower.

First tower often falls by 10 minutes (or even before that) due to the pressure on bottom lane.

Glory ln Death1 votes

If First Turret Blood were contributing to snowballing, we would see an equal - probably larger, actually, considering how snowballing works - increase in win rate based off of subsequent "Firsts" such as Baron and Inhibitor.

However, since Patch 5.22 (according to League of Graphs), First Turret win rate is the only one (among turret, blood, dragon, baron, and inhibitor)that has fluctuated significantly. In fact, First Blood and First Dragon win rates are each 1% lower than in 5.22, and inhibitor and baron are within 0.5%.

Where is the snowball? Turret has given a 2-3% increase in win rate. The extra gold and map pressure makes it easier to take other objectives, which should give even more of an advantage, which should make it easier to take Baron and Inhibitors, which should now have an even higher win rate than in season 5 because of all the extra snowballing that started with the first turret. So why are first inhibitor and first baron win rates almost exactly the same?

The game ought to be cinched by then based on all the snowballing that the Boards are talking about.

AMYS GRAVE5 votes

Ok first off you're looking at the short term trends.

http://www.leaguemath.com/match-duration-analysis/

from patches 5.1-5.6 show high elo gametimes of 31 minutes (note this is largely before cinderhulk was released and increased game times)

http://www.leagueofgraphs.com/infographics/patch-5-22-infographics

patch 5.22 had game times averaging 31ish minutes so this seems to confirm this and note that patch 5.22 was well after cinderhulk nerfs and sated being added.

http://www.leagueofgraphs.com/rankings/game-durations

patch 6.22 had average game times of 26 minutes for master tier.

Look at game duration on average by ranking and you can see that in the past two years we've lost 7 minutes of game time at high elo. You can't compare one patch to the one immediately before it to draw out a trend. This is a long term problem.

Sailor Mint1 votes

A lot of it is Korean solo queue. They will just give up and open mid if they are behind.

While nowhere near the same extent, that trend is also present in other regions, High Elo games are not indicative of anything for that reason. Low sample size is also a factor.

AMYS GRAVE1 votes

They did that then and they do that now. If anything them giving up earlier/more often is just a sign that the problem is real.

Sailor Mint1 votes

If you were paying to play the game, you wouldn't want to spent time in games "you can't win".

Glory ln Death1 votes

This was not looking at the short term trends. As I stated in the post, the numbers are consistent both before and after each of the shown patches. In every Season 6 patch prior to 6.23, ~54% of games ended before 30 minutes. In ever patch since 6.23, ~39% of games ended before 30 minutes.

For 3 months, the majority of games have lasted about 10 minutes longer. It flipped in literally one patch, but the Boards hasn't seemed to notice.

AMYS GRAVE4 votes

This was not looking at the short term trends. As I stated in the post, the numbers are consistent both before and after each of the shown patches.

except it isn't, i just provided data that shows games are shorter than they used to be. This has been a longer trend than three months, the flip in that one patch just brought it to our collective attention that this has been happening and that one patch was particularly obnoxious.

Glory ln Death1 votes

Your "data" you provided is in the form of an extremely small sample size from one region collected by a single individual who starts off by admitting that his data set is only "semi-decent".

The data he collected composed of only 7000 ranked games per day, only from NA. Considering that Master/Challenger is - what? ~~~2%~~ Edit: 0.08% of ranked players? - that's only maybe 140 6 ranked games each day from those tiers. He even included the deviation for each tier, which was nearly 8 minutes for those 2 tiers - over 25% deviation.

The sample size and deviation are fine for what he was looking for - a comparison of game length between tiers - but the data does not give an accurate indication of actual average game length. The sample size is too small, and it only covers one region.

The data that I provided in the original post comes from all available ranked games and all regions. It accurately portrays the state of the game, which is: average game time has_drastically_ increased, and it has stayed there for 3 months. Could it still be shorter than it was 2-3 years ago? Maybe. But, right now, games are 40-50% Edit: 10% longer on average than they were for the entirety of Season 6.

AMYS GRAVE3 votes

Your "data" you provided

vs. ?

The data that I provided

I pointed to multiple sources which are in agreement with each other, one of which was league of graphs, which is the exact same source you used just looking at patch 5.22 instead of patches 5.1 to 5.6. Both of those sources back up the point that game times have shortened. Maybe try reading the whole post and considering the data presented for a few minutes?

But, right now, games are 40-50% longer on average than they were for the entirety of Season 6.

Actually average game time went from 26 minutes almost even, to 26:49. That's an increase of ~3%. A 40-50% increase would have been averaging 26 minutes on patch 6.22 to 36 minutes on patch 6.23. That's not even close to the truth.

EDIT: testing your claim against the data that is easily available a 40-50% increase in game time between patches 6.22 to 6.23 given that 6.23 high elo games average 26:49 would mean that high elo game times on 6.22 would have had to be 18:34-13:25. This is clearly absurd.

Glory ln Death1 votes

Where are you getting those game lengths? Because you haven't linked any information regarding patch 6.22 or 6.23. You've only linked early Season 5, 5.22, and our current patch.

Actually doing the math using League of Graph's info (a rough estimate since we only have the 5 minute intervals and not the exact times) gives an average game length of 31.66 minutes in patch 6.22 and 34.54 minutes in patch 6.23. Certainly not 40-50% (I was eyeballing that, focusing mostly on the 25% regions. My bad.) But it's still a 10% increase in average game time.

It may not be as huge of a difference as I initially thought, but it's still a significant increase.

AMYS GRAVE3 votes

Where are you getting those game lengths?

http://www.leagueofgraphs.com/rankings/game-durations

High elo average game lengths from the link i posted in the first place. Until you read my posts and consider the data presented you're wasting my time.

Glory ln Death1 votes

I have read your posts and the data, but nowhere do I see any information regarding average game duration for Challenger in patches 6.22 or 6.23. The link you posted only gives information for the current patch, with no way to jump between patches (unless it just doesn't show up on mobile). So unless that's the case, it seems like you're just pulling numbers out of the air.

Edit: By the way, I calculated out the average game length of the 5.1-5.6 period from the first article you referenced. Under the assumption that it's numbers were an accurate representation of game duration in each eloquent and there was a similar distribution of players then as there are now, average game time was 35.4 minutes. Less than 1 minute longer than currently.

AMYS GRAVE1 votes

it seems like you're just pulling numbers out of the air.

40-50% lol. You are wasting my time.

Glory ln Death1 votes

I did the calculations and provided the correct numbers immediately after, lol. You have yet to explain where your numbers come from, because they certainly aren't in the links you're providing.

AMYS GRAVE1 votes

They are directly from the links if you open them. Stop wasting my time. Seriously go away if you have nothing constructive to say.

Glory ln Death1 votes

And as I have said before: the data you are citing is not in those links.

Where does it say game length was 26 minutes flat in Paych 6.22 like you're claiming? The 26:49 is there for the current patch (although you claim that that is for Patch 6.23 - not to mention that this patch has only been up for about 12 hours).

If you can't actually find statistical evidence to back up your claims, just say so. I corrected myself where I was wrong - even went back and clearly labeled the edits - it's really not that hard. The only person wasting your time here is you.

Seriously go away if you have nothing constructive to say.

In case you've forgotten, this is my post. No one is forcing you to come here.

AMYS GRAVE1 votes

Where does it say game length was 26 minutes flat in Paych 6.22 like you're claiming? The 26:49 is there for the current patch (although you claim that that is for Patch 6.23 - not to mention that this patch has only been up for about 12 hours).

When i posted it was from patch 7.2 (the website updated today) so the patch so plenty of statistical relevance not the 12 hours of data you're claiming. By your own arguments game length hasn't changed since then. Therefore it is perfectly applicable.

If you can't actually find statistical evidence to back up your claims, just say so.

Have and did.

I corrected myself where I was wrong - even went back and clearly labeled the edits - it's really not that hard. The only person wasting your time here is you.

Your edits are still wrong, now you edited it to say 10% which is still a factor of 3 more than reality.

Also you averaged wintrates without taking into account the different number of games, which is not how averages work. You need to weight them by number of games per division. Also bronze and silver games shouldn't carry the same weight as master challanger games.

The only person wasting your time here is you.

Spreading misinformation is wasting everyones time, so i'm trying to make sure that people aren't swayed by your exaggeration and misinterpretation of the data.

Glory ln Death1 votes

The average game duration during Patch 6.22 was 31.66 minutes, and the average during Patch 6.23 was 34.54 minutes. That is based on the total number of games, not influenced by rank. A three minute increase in game duration. That is a 9.5% increase in game duration. 10% is pretty accurate, and that is reality.

You claim to have provided statistical evidence, but one source doesn't use a proper sample for what you are trying to prove. The "League of Math" article collected data to observe a general trend in game length between elos, not to find an accurate average game length for each elo. It holds no weight as evidence.

Another source does not contain the information you claim it does. Where in the "League of Graphs" page you linked is there any information related to patch 6.22 or Patch 6.23? You cited a page showing Patch 7.2 information, then claimed it contained Challenger game duration for both Patch 6.22 and 6.23, which it clearly does not.

So, WHERE did "26 minutes flat in 6.22" come from? And where does "we've lost 7 minutes of average game length over 2 years" come from? The only game times you've mentioned are 31 minutes at the most and 26 minutes at the lowest. That's 5 minutes max.

And NONE of what you have said disproves that game length has increased since the beginning of Preseason. Does that mean the game is perfect and balanced? No. Does it mean it's getting better? Well, in one of the ways everyone is screaming about on the Boards - "games are too short" - yes.

There are very few reasons game length would have increased. 1) Snowballing mechanics were nerfed or removed. 2) Comeback mechanics were buffed. Honestly, it was probably comeback mechanics being buffed (support item mini-rework, specifically). Whatever the reasons, though, game duration is longer.

AMYS GRAVE1 votes

Edit: By the way, I calculated out the average game length of the 5.1-5.6 period from the first article you referenced. Under the assumption that it's numbers were an accurate representation of game duration in each eloquent and there was a similar distribution of players then as there are now, average game time was 35.4 minutes. Less than 1 minute longer than currently.

Not how averages work. Not every division has the same number of games played and bronze/silver games don't represent the state of balance in the slightest.

Glory ln Death1 votes

Ah, my bad. That was a mistake on my part.

TyrekGoldenspear4 votes

Huh. Interesting.

Nothing like facts and data to quell the masses.

AMYS GRAVE4 votes

Couldn't agree more, losing 7 minutes of average game time is quite telling when you actually look at the data. See my post.

Critmaster Garen1 votes

{quoted}

Huh. Interesting.

Nothing like facts and data to quell the masses.

ok, we already know the game was shit like this because it wasnt too long ago.

but just because it was shit once and then they did some small changes, doesnt mean its not shit right now because of other changes.

HeeroTX3 votes

Here's what I want to know and why I think we're hearing all this talk of snowballing NOW. What time (in the game) do teams on average get first blood, and what time for first tower? What did that used to be?

According to the inforgraphics, First Tower blood means a win 72% of the time. I would suggest that prior to 6.22 (according to their explanation the charts are from the first few days of the patch) First destroyed tower would occur later in the game. Which means even if the game itself is longer, it FEELS more oppressive because it is much harder for my team to win. (First Blood is a 60% win case, and I KNOW you see ganks much faster since 6.22 since jungles have taken priority, which is even mentioned in LCS commentaries, which is basically de facto "voice of Riot")

It's not about how long the game goes, it's about how the game FEELS. Put another way, it is entirely possible for a team to win a 4v5, but MOST of the time the 4 will lose and it will FEEL really bad playing it out. I've had games where someone dc'd/afk'd 5 mins into a game and we've stretched it to 40. But we still LOST, and even though it might have been POSSIBLE to win, you still feel like that game was lost at 5 mins.

9L9L9L9L9L9L9L2 votes

https://media3.giphy.com/media/Y2nbrJyAR6RiM/200_s.gif

Poske2 votes

Well yeah if you compare it to a time where single ace ment 59 Towers 10 inhibitors 5 nexus towers nexus baron and dragon due to Stupid Death Times

Then yeah league isnt snowbally nowdays

I remember a game.it was a 4vs5. We ace the enemy team

Xin zhao ezreal and me thresh. Took inner mid tower outer mid tower inhibitor tower, 2 nexus towers, nexus and we still had like 7 seconds left till they spawn

O.OO.O.O.O.O.O so yeah compared to that time league isnt snowbally League was that snowbally for only 2 patches. Idk if you took this data from those 2 patches or not though but it seems that way

Now snowball is fine First blood is fine Unless it comes from blitz invade... at that point i hate it but this can be changed by making pre minion spawns more engaging. Idk add a rune in a middle of both rivers so that people actually fight for it rather then one side invading the alt tabers.. Rune could grant experience / gold. Think of it as a skarner rock but 2x times more worth fighthing for only available for the first 2 minutes and a half

So dashy champs get the extra exp/gold/whatever NO dude . we could ahve it spawn at 0.50 seconds at that point anyone can be there

First blood on towers is also fine

Whats not fine is the fact That 2 infernals means that the game is lost unless you are SKT t1 and the enemy team throws for no reason bunch of times in a row

While 2 Mountain drakes literaly mean nothing because enemy team doesnt even let you reach towers........

Basicly nerf Infernal buff mountain a bit and then all dragons are around similar power level

nerfed infernal would give 5/10/15 bonus dmg Buffed mountain could give bonus extra dmg to minions, Extra damage to towers even if there are no minions nearby (Yeah if there are no minions nearby you cant apply mountain drake to towers Rip xin zhao dream)

Apart from the changes i proposed snowball is fine in league

Critmaster Garen2 votes

plus, game time and game pacing are two different things.

just because a game drags out to 25 minutes doesnt mean its not lost at 10 minutes, becasuse one of the teams got an early advantage that doesnt allow the other team to recover.

Mountain Warden2 votes

What I've noticed is that when a team looses a couple of key moments early in the game, it's pretty easy for that team to turtle and prolong a game they will inevitably looses anyway. Game length doesn't tell the whole picture how snowbally is the current meta.

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