Here's some hard data from when I started recording my Key Fragment drops. I did not include Co-op games in my Honor 1.0 data but I did include them in my Honor 2.0 data.
Key Fragment drops seem to require either slightly more games or around the same amount of games as before.
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Honor 1.0
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2/6 - 3/7 - 57 games, 10 Key Fragments
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3/8 - 4/6 - 26 games, 6 Key Fragments
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4/12 - 5/11 - 77 games, 11 Key Fragments
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5/12 - 6/11 - 98 games, 10 Key Fragments
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6/11 - 6/28 - 110 games, 11 Key Fragments
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Honor 2.0
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7/31 - 8/29 - 161 games, 12 Key Fragments
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7/31 - 8/29 - 75 games, 9 Key Fragments (5 from Honor Capsule)
Now, looking at it from an Honor perspective:
- 46 games at Honor Level 3, 3 Key Fragments (in two increments, 2 Fragments then 1 Fragment)
- 14 games at Honor Level 4, 6 Key Fragments (in two increments, 5 Fragments from Honor Capsule then 1 Fragment)
I got the Honor Capsule very shortly after hitting Honor Level 4 so I think that the Capsule came from my games at level 3, since I didn't play any games between the time that I leveled up and the time I got my Capsule.
I'm going to have to play more games at Honor Level 4 to see if Level 3 really has any benefit.