"...one death shouldn’t make or break the entire laning phase."

An Actual Ghost·Feb 7, 2017·167 votes·6,960 views

Quoted from 7.2 patch notes - Darius section.

So, @ SCARIZARD, AETHER, GENTLEMAN GUSTAF & LUQIZILLA...

A single death nowadays is very likely a tower plus dragon followed by a rotation to another lane for another free tower.

Blue side = 72.7% winrate after first tower

Red side = 70.8% winrate after first tower

Source: http://www.leagueofgraphs.com/rankings/win-stats

How do you feel about the current state of the game with it being statistically likely that a single death does, in fact, make or break the entire laning phase?

113 Comments

agbudarFeb 7, 201774 votes

make towers great again!!!! thunderous aplause trump towers for LoL 2017~ again thunderous aplause WE ARE GONNA MAKE THEM SO GREAT YOU CAN SEE THEM FROM THE MOON... THE MOOOOON~!

the crowd is going WIIIIILD~!!

WoonStruckFeb 8, 201712 votes

Orrr...we lower damage in the game so dives take longer and the rest of the game is healthier as well.

Faceroll TacticsFeb 8, 20177 votes

As much as that would seem to fix things, the meta would flip and unkillable Vladimirs/Olafs/Aatroxes/Cassiopeias/anyone with sustain and dps would appear.

PrismghostFeb 8, 20178 votes

[{quoted}](name=Faceroll Tactics,realm=NA,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=8Bma3kEh,comment-id=000200000000,timestamp=2017-02-08T00:42:11.469+0000)

As much as that would seem to fix things, the meta would flip and unkillable Vladimirs/Olafs/Aatroxes/Cassiopeias/anyone with sustain and dps would appear.

Unkillable Aatroxe......I like the sound of this

WoonStruckFeb 8, 20172 votes

It wouldn't make them unkillable lol.

Damage was way lower before and they were still shit-tier champs.

WiegrafOfValorFeb 8, 201732 votes

#I will make Red Team Great Again!

#I will make the biggest Red Turret you have ever seen, and Blue Team will pay for it!

#No one build turrets better than me.

#Donger2017

Sexy Jack RabbitFeb 8, 201715 votes

Is Taliyah his Secretary?

devdev463Feb 8, 20179 votes

"One death very likely means a tower"

Does it though? Do you have any stats? If I had to guess the number of times a tower is taken on the first kill of a lane probably isn't more than 50%. Until you can prove it this is just useless conjecture.

MoetaroFeb 8, 201743 votes

Actually you dont need to die to lose your tower, you just only have to back at the wrong time and, if the enemy team knows its stuff, you lost your tower, because they will be 4maning it while you have a walk back to lane.

Succubús GFFeb 8, 20172 votes

Do you have any stats proving this to be false? No, didn't think so. Don't act superior in the same boat

BonipherusFeb 8, 201738 votes

Burden of proof lies on the original claim. Basic logic.

ManiacalCoyoteFeb 8, 201727 votes

Risky move, using logic on the internet.

3TWarriorFeb 8, 20177 votes

"I'm telling you, the Earth is round!"

"do you have any proof? you're just going to die man!"

"guys, i'm telling you, the earth is NOT the center of the entire universe"

"ha ha ha, what, next thing you'll be telling us is that is that it revolves around the sun, like a wind vane or something?"

the problem with league, however, is that once the "proof" is given, riot has already decided to change something else that has nothing to do with it

QuinnovaFeb 8, 20171 votes

So... it's true until proven false? uh... okay.

macromiteFeb 8, 20171 votes

yup, that is how the internet works. Op is right until proven wrong. IF you want to say he's wrong, then you should have evidence, otherwise you're point is pretty much invalid.

Why? because both of you are posting without evidence, and the first thing without evidence wins here.

Less like a legal system and more like a scientific system.

QuinnovaFeb 9, 20171 votes

nope, that's a fallacy. 'argument from ignorance'.

macromiteFeb 9, 20171 votes

here's the thing.

both sides are using the fallacy.

QuinnovaFeb 9, 20171 votes

nah, one of them just has no evidence. which is just as bad I guess

GayFluffyUnicornFeb 8, 20174 votes

I guess it depends heavily on elo. The higher you go usually less deaths appear especially early ones. So when someone dies first at level 6+ a full health tower is gone in that period without teleport or someone defending it.

RalanrFeb 7, 20178 votes

I like it whenever I play Darius since I'm usually the one getting the kill.

EbonyBladeJ88Feb 8, 20172 votes

Usually that's the case, unless the enemy JG camps you, or (As has happened to me when I play Darius top) you get 4-manned simply because you got one kill on your opponent, and they incessantly stay there until your turret is gone.

General Esdeath Feb 8, 20178 votes

Camille one Draven death Fiora shouldn't Fizz make Jayce or Katarina break Leblanc the Pantheon entire Riven laning Talon phase Zed

drakuIa421Feb 8, 20171 votes

most of these are assassians.

General Esdeath Feb 9, 20171 votes

"the point of the assassin rework is to give assassins more counterplay and reduce snowballing"

JoeMGFeb 8, 20177 votes

Turrets just need better defenses. Actually the overall damage in the game needs to be toned down but I think a slight tower buff is more reasonable.

JasiwelFeb 8, 20173 votes

I think Towers could use more Resistance, it's sad to watch a Mage blow through a tower simply because they have high Ratios. It would make also ADCs feel more appreciated due to raw DPS being more important. DPS used to be important in destroying towers, now Towers are less appreciable due to being easily killed by anyone with moderate Bonus Ratios.

I think Towers could use a DPS buff on their own right. I'm really tired of watching a Vayne tower dive me, take four turret shots, and not even fall below 30% HP. Yes that's happened, and no it wasn't lategame. It was between 15-20 minutes.

Kats PajamasFeb 8, 20172 votes

{quoted}

I think Towers could use more Resistance, it's sad to watch a Mage blow through a tower simply because they have high Ratios. It would make also ADCs feel more appreciated due to raw DPS being more important. DPS used to be important in destroying towers, now Towers are less appreciable due to being easily killed by anyone with moderate Bonus Ratios.

I think Towers could use a DPS buff on their own right. I'm really tired of watching a Vayne tower dive me, take four turret shots, and not even fall below 30% HP. Yes that's happened, and no it wasn't lategame. It was between 15-20 minutes.

The reason AD is better at killing towers is because of the minion debuff. If your tank is diving turret for a mage to kill it, it's much more risky. If the AD has a Last Whisper, then they just blow it away. If a minion is present, and the debuff is applied, or your tank is fearlessly tanking for a minion also, then Mages can realistically blast towers down, but it's more complicated. Focus the minions with wave clear and this won't ever happen.

If your team just isn't there, then that's different and their fault.

Spaceman5pffFeb 8, 20175 votes

Trust me. ADC don't need to feel any better in this Patch of Lethality.

MoetaroFeb 8, 20177 votes

We pushed the bot lane completely, wiped out the enemy's wave and let ours to get their tower. Plenty of time to back, so we backed.

Midlaner came to our lane, they 3 pushed and got our tower to 10% in our way back. To 10%!

You cant even back without losing a tower. And I mean to back at the right time, after shoving your minions to the enemy tower.

If the enemy team knows what they are doing:

You die once, bye bye tower. You back at the wrong time, bye bye tower. They 4man you, bye bye tower.

Kind of stupid, tbh.

Ravenous HowlsFeb 8, 20173 votes

{quoted}

We pushed the bot lane completely, wiped out the enemy's wave and let ours to get their tower. Plenty of time to back, so we backed.

Midlaner came to our lane, they 3 pushed and got our tower to 10% in our way back. To 10%!

You cant even back without losing a tower. And I mean to back at the right time, after shoving your minions to the enemy tower.

If the enemy team knows what they are doing:

You die once, bye bye tower. You back at the wrong time, bye bye tower. They 4man you, bye bye tower.

Kind of stupid, tbh.

I agree. I miss the good old days where you needed a pusher like Nasus, Tryn or Trundle to demolish towers that fast. Now all you need a is a hard sneeze and half a flatulation in the direction of any said tower to knock if over.... Good job Rito...

[zombie-brand-clap]

ModAcademy KaynFeb 7, 20175 votes

You act like those aren't the same/similar numbers before...whenever you're making a comparison from. First tower has always been a good indicator about who's going to win the game.

RozzetaFeb 7, 20177 votes

They are similar numbers from before, with the major difference that it now happens considerably faster, and with less means to prevent it, with makes it more griveous to the players on the losing side as they can see the immediate consequences of losing tower.

Baron of BreadFeb 7, 20174 votes

[{quoted}](name=l REFUSE TO CHAT,realm=NA,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=8Bma3kEh,comment-id=,timestamp=2017-02-07T22:05:52.336+0000)

A single death nowadays is very likely a tower plus dragon followed by a rotation to another lane for another free tower.

Got numbers for that?

As far as the other things go, a team that gets ahead should have a good chance of winning. Either by way of being better or just having an advantage.

An Actual GhostFeb 7, 201720 votes

I looked, but couldn't find "first tower % caused by single death" from a decent source. If such a statistic exists, please share. I'm going of my personal experience here. If it is different in your elo, feel free to share. I'm an open minded scientific mind, not here to die-hard an argument off of minimal research without listening to counter arguments. I'm not republican, geesh.

Spaceman5pffFeb 7, 20175 votes

Your stats are pretty close to spot on from memory. Thing is, before first tower gold, the correlation was just 2% weaker, meaning the impact on the game is not as big as everyone is cracking it up to be.

An Actual GhostFeb 7, 201713 votes

I'm not very interested in first tower gold. It obviously didn't help whatsoever, but I'm more concerned with the 4 bot gank or 1 death mid that means my tower is now gone and now I have a 30% chance to win.

Spaceman5pffFeb 7, 20177 votes

It doesn't mean you have a 30% chance to win. It means 30% of those games ARE won.

It is FAR more complex than what you make it out to be. You can either be the victim of a statistic or you can be a player in a game.

guess what? The victims are the ones who never get any better at league.

MoetaroFeb 8, 20174 votes

If the team destroying the first tower has a 70% chance to win, and you lose the first tower, you dont have to have a "scientific mind" or be a genius to know that you have now a 30% chance to win.

It doesn't mean you have a 30% chance to win.

winning 30 games out of 100 games in this situation, does exactly mean that.

You can either deny the reality, or you can face it. Guess what? denying the reality doesnt help to win.

Spaceman5pffFeb 8, 20175 votes

Put it this way:

only 25% of students diagnosed with ADHD + another behavioral condition will graduate college in 4 years.

I fall into this category. However, that does not mean I have a 25% chance to graduate.

My ability to graduate is not decided by "chance" or "the odds" Just like every game of league is not decided by "chance" or "the odds"

MoetaroFeb 8, 20173 votes

Yes, sure, you can be "the special one". Why not?

Sure it means that. You have a 25% chance to graduate in 4 years. Yes. You can get it? sure, still, your odds are 25%. Do you think that "you are special"? or what? Hey, only 1 out 4 guys like me gets it, but my chances are 80%. O.o'. If your odds are 80% then, they are not like you, obviously or there are other factors, like "only 1 out of 4 students like that that dont study more than 4 hours a day".

Nah, nonsense.

You are going to lose 30 out of 100 games where you lose first tower. 30% chance incoming, whether you like it or not. If you had any other chance, you wouldnt win 30 out of 100. As I said, you dont need a scientific mind to understand that. Sometimes you will have 10, sometimes 40, but as average, 30.

Spaceman5pffFeb 8, 20173 votes

OKOK so clearly my example was taken as my pleading for special treatment or something.

Not the case.

I was just attempting to demonstrate to you that other factors are at play than one raw statistic.

However, if you have the mentality that you will lose, then you likely WILL lose.

PB4UAMEFeb 8, 20178 votes

Aggregate statistics do not apply to the individual observation-- even within the same sample set.

Baron of BreadFeb 8, 20179 votes

It doesn't necessarily mean you have a 30% chance to win. Each game has an independently determined chance to win once first tower is taken. That independent chance averages to about 30%, but just because there is an average doesn't mean every game conforms to that average.

Spacesuit SpiffFeb 8, 20173 votes

Im sitting in mid plat and ive not noticed a single instance of one death or gank leading to a tower. You get the odd 4man gank at 4 minutes, but they don't really go for objectives after it. And I cant imagine mid abandoning lane just to help push bot in because the other bot backed.

The constant botlane ganks are annoying yeah, but unless things are super different in higher elo this "first team to gank gets turret and dragon" thing is just boards hysteria. How on earth do you take a tower AND dragon in the time it takes to walk back to lane for the first time? Maybe if you've got a Tristana and a jungler who can solo drake, but that isn't what these posts are claiming.

Envoy of MelodyFeb 8, 20174 votes

Watch as Riot elegantly skips this thread like all the time when something is decisively AGAINST their opinion of what's healthy for the game and what not.

Or will they prove me wrong and say something?

no to toxicFeb 7, 20172 votes

Maybe Riot should do a revert first blood first team to get a kill loses 400 gold.

TurquoiseYoshiFeb 8, 20174 votes

Now this is just silly

ChaoticPineconeFeb 8, 20172 votes

I remember a rioter quoted that yes - you have have a very high winrate after taking the first tower. However, its always been high. Even before the first tower gold and lethality buffs, it was still close to 70%.

UkeNeverSemeFeb 8, 20172 votes

This got some attention a while ago and someone commented that before fb tower it was like a 68-69 percent winrate. Whoever gets early advantages are likely to be PLAYING better, and will therefore normally win. Nothing weird about that.

Dev DogFeb 8, 20172 votes

the idea of examining the first tower statistic as a way to say that dying once in lane leads to a loss seems simplistic for a couple of reasons.

first, losing first tower is an indicator of a losing game, and a correlation, but not necessarily a causative factor of losing the game.

It's like saying, 70% of runners in 1st place for the first third of a marathon finish in 1st place. Well, if you heard that statistic, or a similar one, you would think, oh, of course, because they were already in the lead, it makes sense that they would end in the lead.

Similarly, If you are losing the first tower, that is usually because your team is behind somewhere on the map, and the enemy team has the wiggle room to send more than one person to shove down your tower, which means as a team you are 1) behind the enemy team in terms of kills/cs or 2) behind the enemy team in terms of map/objective awareness or just general teamwork. Your likelihood of winning the game was probably decided before you lost your tower or died once in lane.

secondly, as many players in this chat have mentioned,first towers are taken for a multitude of reasons, not just because of dying once in lane. improper backing, organized 4 man ganks/pushes/rotations, or just sloppy roaming can lead to your tower being taken.