Change to rarely dropping key fragments?!
Please hear me out and consider this idea before downvoting!
As a post/comment recommended it on Reddit, it might be actually a better idea to have the keyfragments drop every x-th time. For example you get a key fragment every 5th won game. 5 wins is not that easy to obtain, but at least we could keep opening the boxes, would feel more motivation to play and even strive to win the game. Now we reached the point where it is relatively easy to obtain the boxes and everyone has like ~3-6 boxes unopened and NO SHARDS AT ALL.
If we are honest, if we want to buy hextech content for RP , the key only is 125 RP, while the combo key+box is 195 RP. Most of the people will buy the 195 RP one if they spend anything on it anyway. That leads back to the problem, still have a big amount of chests and no key frags at all.
I've forged last month 2 keys, key frags came every 2nd won games. Now I cant get a single key fragment for 3 weeks by now, and it's not that I've lost all of my matches. The drop rate is probably set to every 27th win or something.
Riot, please consider making the drop rates fixed, and not random. I'm sure there's a good fix frequency. You can even make it 6-8th win and that would probably still work better!