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A look into the state of Lulu

Aptest·3/25/2017, 9:41:47 AM·4 votes·822 views

TL;DR: lulu's the most broken champion in league right now.

Following Dr Sona x Rubik's thread, this is an investigation into the "potential win rate" of Lulu at high elo.

What is the potential win rate? it is how much you can do with her if you are really good on her. It's not what the average player can expect to achieve if he just plays lulu, but rather, how much a dedicated and proficient and SUCCESSFUL (not one of those 40% win yasuo one-tricks I find in my elo) lulu player can squeeze out of the champion.

How does this manifest? A player who's MMR is stable, if he picks up lulu to one-trick, will gain MMR. This increase in MMR represents the strength of the champion.

Alternatively, if a player is keeping his MMR stable through losing with other champions, the win rate on Lulu represents her potential for this player at that MMR.

this is a very mild example. realy working examples are much more obvious:

https://img2.brain3.photobox.com/42478021c8d190a1fe8d2c2af625170587732d791be5e5b7d6e730af07454193acd8cf25.jpg

In both cases we have to assume there is no malice or "doctoring of the results". Its very easy to doctor the results if you are a good player. All you have to do is throw away some games (lose intentionally), or use some other method to get easy opponents. For instance get a silver account and one-trick lulu on that.

Here is how obvious results doctoring looks like:

https://img2.brain3.photobox.com/120595327ae330e151ac981abffe97fb2e35fe8294dc40468432ed6694e37c5285418577.jpg

As you can see this account starts in Silver (this account only exists in season 7) and climbs from there. The high win rate on Lulu (and Sona) only represents the period in this account when the player was against very easy opponents (from his perspective as a diamond 5). I.E. this explains nothing about Lulu (or Sona) because the players were not evenly matched when this data was gathered.

Using league of graphs, I went over the 50 best high tier lulu players. I attempted to weed out the ones I thought (qualitative process, sorry, not the good old fashioned scientific method) had errors due to starting the account in low mmr (about 30-35 of the 50, btw), and my conclusion is thus:

lulu right now can reach 60-75% win at the hands of a skilled OTP.

I.E. she's broken as fuck.

9 Comments

Ahristocats3/25/2017, 9:52:03 AM2 votes

to be fair no permabanned champions were once balanced, and it's only a matter of time until lulu is nerfed my concern is just how much time we're going to wait, because meddler has some issues on following what's happening in high elo just like how he took 3 months to nerf corki

what's broken with lulu? i would say her impossible-to-lane against laning phase, but i'm going to ask as many high elo support main as i can to see if i'm right

Tin of sardines3/25/2017, 10:23:44 PM1 votes

60-75% win that amount? is not that much... honest, I need raw data at this point to get a good P, because freaking people can trust a site to do the math. well, I could ask my sister to go and play 3 supports at random... and get some results, but a would need at least 100 games per champion to have like 4% deviation. honest, I don't play that much to know if she is OP or not, but that amount of Win rate for a high skilled Lulu player is just evidence, not proof that she is OP. we gonna need more data, a lot more data.

Athenes Lulu3/28/2017, 8:24:02 AM1 votes

While you are not lying based on your statistics, you keep in mind about one thing: A LOT of those Lulu "one tricks" who got their way to diamond have never touched a single Lulu game in season 6 or before, and that's the information you want to look for as well. I don't know if you can call them "true one tricks", but moreso meta sheep that one-tricked Lulu because they saw her OP and freelo.

The problem right now is skillcap doesn't even matter since you just need to know how to click E and 1v2 (and for some reason she doesn't get punished for it), and you instead get rewarded for rushing the same items (Censer, Redemption, and Locket), and autobind everything you have to a said carry instead of trying to use and time your spells wisely. Actually, if you try to do the latter, you're gonna have a hard time, which kinda throws away the point of being even "experienced" at playing Lulu so your point isn't the most accurate.

In short: Lulu is broken not because a said one trick and "skilled player" plays the champ well to get freelo, but because you don't even need a skillcap to do well while not really knowing how much she can really do.