Spring 2017 - Stats-based Projections - Week 6 Onwards
Hi,
Here are my projections for Week 6 onwards.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vS_tdqwjerf8x9tq_6VTk_KJ3YFW_qd8NIiqFVg1Mdw/edit?usp=sharing
As before, you will find 3 tabs:
- LCS_Stats : Which shows average deaths and kills per game, and which teams players are generally going to be more valuable based on scheduled matchup (according to the prior two factors).
- Best_Format_Projections : Which groups players by role, and sorts them in order of who is going to be most valuable for Week 6 in the 'Best Game' format.
- First2_Format_Projections : Which groups players by role, and sorts them in order of who is going to be most valuable for Week 6 in the 'First2' format.
In both Format_Projection tabs, you will see:
- My projections (W# Proj.) and Riot's estimates (W# Riot) for previous weeks have been provided alongside the actual results for each week (Week#).
- The scheduled matchups, alongside my projections for the current week (including Riot's estimates (W# Riot)).
- Projections for the remaining weeks of play (W# Proj.).
- Accumulative values for each player's projections are also supplied for Weeks 6-9 (until the end of the Fantasy split) (W6-W9).
I recommend using these stats and projections in conjunction with your own intuition for whether matches are going to turn into macro-fests (which don't usually produce many points), complete shut-outs, utter carnage, or anything else in between.
Also keep in mind that some teams/players that have started strong are also in a decline, and vice versa.
Good luck!
Extra Notes... (optional reading below)
The Link
It is the same each week. You may see me updating it as you're viewing it, especially around matches. Average Deaths & Kills stats are usually updated frequently (when I'm online), but future projections are normally only updated in the closing day. Once all the stats have been finalised, I'll then finalise my projections, and submit a new discussion thread.
Red Player Names
Red player names means they have been substituted at some point this split, and are in danger of not playing a full week. Also note that I don't have inside information on who is in or out each week/match, so don't rely on this being gospel.
Omitted Players
Note that some players have been omitted, due to appearing in only a single week, and/or not completing a full series, so I couldn't generate reliable projections for them. I will try to include them as I collect data on them.
Players that are currently omitted:
- GBM
- Ray
- Stunt
Historical Projections/Estimates
I've only recently been collecting the data that I have available to me for Riot's estimates for players. This will be provided alongside my own projections, so that you can gauge whether you think my projections are more reliable than Riot's.
I'm wary of the sheets being too cluttered with information, and it being difficult for everyone else to know what all of the figures mean. So if this becomes a problem, I may change the structure to accommodate.