Stats-based Projections - Week 9
Time for the final round of upsets and disappointments.
You can see how poorly the projections compared to the actual results in my latest comment on Week 8's Stats-based Projections.
Week 8 Summary
** EU - In order of Points Per Game**
- G2 Esports: Bossed it up against UOL and S04, averaging over 20 points per game per player. Uncharacteristically, Perkz manage a week without feeding.
- Giants: The pendulum of current form for GIA swung back in the other direction this week. turning their 0-4 from week 7 into a 4-0 in week 8, milking OG for some big points (particularly SmittyJ), and dealing with VIT quite handily.
- Splyce: Even though they are on the up and up, SPY weren't expected to get huge points from 2 teams that typically don't give away many points to their opponents (FNC & H2K). As a whole this ended up pretty much true, and they ended up slightly better off than expected, but Sencux profited the most, leaving the rest of the SPY squad behind, hovering just above in the land of mediocrity.
- ROCCAT: Performed slightly better than expected, and decided (momentarily) that they'd had enough of being the whipping boys of the EU LCS. They had their best week yet for deaths per game (dropping to 7th highest for the week, across both regions). ROC pummelled a bunch of points out of S04, only to fall back into their old habits against UOL, gushing points all over them.
- Unicorns Of Love: Struggled (understandably) against the number 1 team in EU, but managed to offset their poor performance against G2 with a refreshing shower of points from ROC. They ended up pretty much where they were expected to be for week 8.
- ORIGEN: Struggled against a resurgent GIA, but managed to get some respectable points against a floundering FNC squad.
- H2K: Scored very well against a disappointing VIT team, but when they were outclassed by an ascended SPY, it put them below their expected points for the week.
- Fnatic: What has happened to FNC? They turned into one of the biggest disappointment of all the EU teams for week 8. SPY showed them their dominance, and they could only manage a draw against an OG squad that's still in flux.
- FC Schalke 04: It was to be expected that they wouldn't get much from G2, but there was a possibility that they could have carried a swing in momentum from their match against ROC into the G2 matches... only, they became one of solemn few that failed to get anything out of ROC. The disappointment of FNC this week may well have been overshadowed by this one failure against the surest of sure bests.
- Team Vitality: Another big under-performer, but the level of disappointment was tempered by the fact that they weren't expected to do very well anyway.
NA
- Cloud9: They're back! Take my energy! Meteos only managed to get less than 10 more points than expected this week, but the rest of the squad (including a poorly performing Impact, who rose from 17th best performing Top in week 7 to 1st in week 8) managed to bust out 20-30 points more than anticipated. A Triple, a Quadra, and a Penta against P1 ensured that C9 closed the week with the highest points per game across both regions.
- Immortals: Well, they're not immortal, but they consistently prove that their opponents are even less so. Performed well, but that was expected in week 8.
- Liquid: Did better than expected. Mainly due to Dardoch being on a Warpath vs NRG (see what I did there?).
- Counter Logic Gaming: There was quite a bit of variety in how closely CLG players performances compared to their expected points. Huhi broke FOX, rendering them null and void.
- TSM: Had their 2nd lowest kills per game of the entire split in week 8. Of the NA teams, TSM were perhaps the biggest disappointment, ranking merely average in the grand scheme of things. Obviously, losing to P1 was somewhat of a surprise, and the biggest upset of the entire split.
- Apex: It seems hit or miss as to whether teams can get a reasonable offering of points from IMT, but APX seemed to miss out again, just like they did last time. And a decent showing against FOX still wasn't enough to offset their losses against IMT.
- Echo Fox: Despite not performing very well, they actually performed better than expected.
- Phoenix1: A win against TSM put them higher than expected this week, but they got destroyed by C9. Before this week began, if I had to guess which team (out of TSM and C9) would give up a loss to P1, I would have said C9.
- NRG Esports: They actually got some ok points against IMT, but TL went on a Rampage with NRG.
- Team Envy: Had the same matchups as P1 in week 8, but where P1 did better than expected, NV did even worse.
Split Stats - Average Kills Per Game
http://i.imgur.com/zoI3hiG.jpg
Split Stats - Average Deaths Per Game
http://i.imgur.com/RsX62Cj.jpg
Now, time for the assuredly reliable projections that you know can certainly be trusted, because data. Mhmm, no doubt about these this week! What could possibly go wrong?
Top Projections - Week 9
http://i.imgur.com/tSU2t9j.jpg
Jung Projections - Week 9
http://i.imgur.com/xYQR5DJ.jpg
Mid Projections - Week 9
http://i.imgur.com/i4u3kI9.jpg
ADC Projections - Week 9
http://i.imgur.com/ll2uF9O.jpg
Supp Projections - Week 9
http://i.imgur.com/pRInexQ.jpg
If you've been paying attention to what's been going on across this split, you undoubtedly know that nobody really knows what is really going on from week to week. Data is generally dangerous to use in isolation, but this split has shown that on average, nobody is average.
Now shut up and give me your upvote!
By the way, I'd like to thank the 3 or 4 people that do regularly give me upvotes. It takes quite a bit of effort to get these out, especially within a day or two of the previous week finishing.
Less than 3.
