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Stats-based Projections - Week 5

Pseudo Q·6/27/2016, 12:46:33 AM·4 votes·1,247 views

Hi folks,

Here are the projections for week 5 (average kills per game), based on the stats for the split so far. Like last week's discussion, only the matchups for the coming week are shown, but expected values for each week until the end of the split are also provided.

Average Kills & Deaths = 11.75 per game.

http://i.imgur.com/8a7oKOa.jpg

You should be able to use this data (along with the stats provided in the Stats page from your fantasy league) to help form an idea about who you want to start/bench/trade for the weeks to come. Depending on the size of your fantasy league, your ability to trade will vary greatly.

Keep in mind that each team will have its own balance for how those kills (+assists) are distributed amongst the team.

Feel free to leave any requests for advice, with your roster & free-agents (but I'm not so bothered about seeing who you are matched up against). If you're happy to leave a link to your roster page, that might be the best option.

As ever, up votes to keep this 'Hot' until next week would be appreciated if you find these weekly projections (and collation of stats per team) useful.

[Edit]

Projections vs Results

http://i.imgur.com/dpOTGhf.jpg

9 Comments

Pseudo Q6/27/2016, 12:52:23 AM3 votes

I'm considering posting up similar projections for players too (broken down by position). But substitutions makes refining the data a lot harder, and prone to being a bit wonky for them unless I spend a lot of time manually digging out match data. For the most part, it looks useful though, so I may end up throwing it out here anyway, and just add some notes for the wonky data for substitutes.

Pseudo Q6/27/2016, 10:47:43 PM2 votes

Ok, I'm going to give what I've got clear data to go by for each position.

Any player that has ever been substituted (even just once) is going to be omitted, but I'll mention who they are. I'd rather not show them than provide duff/fudged data. I may decide to fudge a number in future posts, but for now I'll do it this way.

P.S. The reason I can't easily process substitutes is because all I do is copy-paste the whole stats page for each week into a spreadsheet. But because the collapsed stats give numbers for the entire week, rather than per game, I can't easily calculate a player's kill participation, which is one of the factors in my calculations for projected points in future weeks. Manually clicking each [+] to expand the individual match stats makes this an unsustainable way of working, but it also doesn't provide stats per game, and only shows the stats for the match which doesn't account for mid-match subs.

DoubleOH9inches6/30/2016, 2:51:04 PM2 votes

Hey just wanted to say thanks for this. That is a decent amount of work that a lot of people want but no one wants to do. I appreciate it. I just wish Riot put any where near the effort you are in supporting this Fantasy LCS as well, for those people who dont know about these boards.

Pseudo Q6/27/2016, 10:55:12 PM1 votes

Jung

http://i.imgur.com/RnxrvMA.jpg

Omitted

  • (Echo Fox) Hard
  • (Echo Fox) Grigne
  • (Liquid) Dardoch
  • (Liquid) Moon
  • (Phoenix1) Zentinel
  • (Phoenix1) Inori

[Edit]

Projections vs Results

http://i.imgur.com/s0MUYW5.jpg

Pseudo Q6/27/2016, 10:57:34 PM1 votes

Mid

http://i.imgur.com/qMGrRSl.jpg

Omitted

  • (Origen) PowerOfEvil
  • (Origen) xPeke
  • (Phoenix1) Pirean
  • (Phoenix1) Slooshi

[Edit]

Projections vs Result

http://i.imgur.com/3V7VP5H.jpg

Pseudo Q6/27/2016, 11:01:11 PM1 votes

ADC

https://i.imgur.com/IY3LgWz.jpg

Omitted

  • (Team Vitality) Police
  • (Team Vitality) Reje
  • (Phoenix1) Mash
  • (Phoenix1) Slooshi
  • (Liquid) fabbbyyy
  • (Liquid) Piglet
  • (Origen) Forgiven
  • (Origen) xPeke

[Edit]

Projections vs Results

http://i.imgur.com/NguiMeN.jpg

Pseudo Q6/27/2016, 11:02:51 PM1 votes

Supp

http://i.imgur.com/Nl18TVT.jpg

Omitted

  • (Cloud9) Bunny FuFuu
  • (Cloud9) Smoothie

[Edit]

Projections vs Result

http://i.imgur.com/WAOKqH7.jpg

Pseudo Q6/27/2016, 10:50:17 PM1 votes

Top

http://i.imgur.com/OloTW8K.jpg

Omitted

  • (Phoenix1) Brandini
  • (Phoenix1) Zig
  • (G2 Esports) Expect
  • (G2 Esports) Kikis

[Edit]

Projections vs Results

http://i.imgur.com/4b9yOwM.jpg