Pseudo Q's Stats-based Projections - Week 4

Pseudo Q·6/21/2016, 12:31:28 AM·2 votes·768 views

Hi,

I know a few people that prefer not to wait until the 11th hour to get some advice on which players from which teams they should be aiming for.

Now that we have 3 weeks of data to work from, we can start using it a bit more reliably.

I crunch the numbers that are produced in the Stats page into a more usable format, calculating which teams give away the most deaths per game, which teams have an above average number of kills per game, and then calculate an expected number of kills per game for each team given their matchups each week. All it takes is a copy-paste after each week (or match) to get an idea of which free agents might be flying under the radar and could net me some decent points for the coming week, or future investments I can acquirer that can warm my bench until following weeks.

The general order of the teams is typically the same between the two formats (First 2 Games and Best Game), but it does make a difference. Both will be provided.

It's not to be taken as gospel, but it may help you get a feel for who has strong and weak matchups each week. It also calculated which teams have the highest 'value' going into the future, to the end of the split.

Note that only Week 4 is expanded to show matchups. The next few weeks are also provided, but collapsed, showing only the final calculation (hopefully you'll understand what that means when you see it).

First 2 Games

http://i.imgur.com/H6TYXnb.jpg

Best Game

http://i.imgur.com/Je1fMuK.jpg

I hope this is useful for some of you. But (disclaimer time) always remember that it's not an exact science, upsets can happen, and team strategies can change. Take it all with a pinch of salt.

If it's well received, I'll try to post something each week (but less wordy in the future). I'd appreciate some up votes as a sign of whether this has been useful/interesting for you.

8 Comments

GuppyRoc6/21/2016, 2:50:17 AM1 votes

So i got some insight from a couple people but i want to know your input on my lineup this week. It's about to be a crazy matchup because my opponent has some really high scoring players. Thanks for your time man.

My team: Top: Odoamne JG: Santorin Mid: Febiven ADC: Sonstar Supp: Biofrost Flex: Expect Team: FNC Alt: Meteos, Betsy, LOD

Opponent's team: Top: Huni Jg: Trick Mid: GBM ADC: Doublelift Supp: Vander Flex: Wildturtle Team: G2 Esports Alt: PowerOfEvil, Yellowstar, Hauntzer

I made my team based off of who their opponents are (H2K vs UoL, NRG vs FOX, etc). I didnt want you to read all the free agents available and everything since insight helps a lot anyways. Thanks again!

OHminus6/22/2016, 2:20:52 PM1 votes

Roster: Top: Impact Jg: Reignover Mid: Keane ADC: Wildturtle Supp: Smoothie Flex: Meteos Team: G2 Alts: Kobbe, Ninja, Expect

Opponent's Team: Top: Gamsu Jg: Sven Mid: Ryu ADC: Zven Supp: Matt Flex: Freeze Team: C9 Alts: Dardoch, Fox, Vizicsacsi

Notable free agents: Night, LOD, GBM, Steve, Hakuho

Should I do anything different? The opponent's roster looks pretty scary and I have question marks at support and mid (Smoothie may not start, APX might not win).

Axis the Dragon6/22/2016, 6:59:30 PM1 votes

Roster Matchup

Avail: ohq, PoE, keith, matt, police, hakuho, all of giants, UoL, schalke (minus mr ralez), and P1