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Road to Worlds Breakdown

Mostly Janna·7/27/2015, 3:48:21 AM·12 votes·4,690 views

UPDATED given conclusion of matches from 8/9/2015. SPOILERS ARE BELOW. UPDATED given conclusion of matches on 8/8/2015. SPOILERS ARE BELOW.

Here are the breakdowns of the options for each of your favorite teams to secure a spot for worlds. I will update the Roads to Worlds for each team as playoff matches conclude.

The point matrix is attached and takes into consideration the points carrying over from the Spring Split. I've added another matrix that is color coded/boxed. One team from each color (yellow or blue) will end in 5th/6th, 3rd/4th, and 1st/2nd. I've added in the fact TL and CLG cannot finish lower than 4th place.

This is based off of:

Point Totals (Final Totals in bold):

  • TSM - 130-180
  • TL - 90-140
  • TiP - 70-120
  • CLG - 50-100
  • Cloud 9 - 70
  • Gravity - 30 - Dignitas - 20

Team Liquid

New: Team Liquid is still looking to take home the summer playoff championships. While much of what was previously stated holds true, TSM securing victory over Gravity narrows their path to worlds. Since TSM is well poised to take home a spot in worlds as points leader carrying over a significant number of points from their 1st place finish in the Spring Split.

Team Liquid fans should be obviously looking for victory this weekend, but a loss doesn't completely eliminate their chances at securing a World's spot as Points Leader. If Team Liquid loses to TSM, they will be looking for a Team Impulse loss as well as a first place finish for TSM. This will leave Team Liquid as points leader providing they beat potential 3rd place matchup opponents Team Impulse.

Cheer Tip: Cheer against Team Impulse (and/or TSM in both of their matches)

Old: TL has one of the most options for getting to worlds given C9s Summer Split. Aside from getting first in the Summer Playoffs, there are a number of scenarios that could get TL to Worlds with a points qualification.~~

TL can qualify with points with as low as 3rd place providing that if they do lose their first matchup in the summer playoffs providing TSM was their opponent and they proceed to win. They would then need TSM to win the Summer Playoffs and TiP not getting into the Championship match against TSM. As another option, if TL manages to get to the Summer Playoff Championship (2nd), they would qualify providing TSM lost to Gravity or TSM loses their match for 3rd.

If the above doesn't happen, TL is guaranteed to play in the regional qualifiers for the third slot.

Cheer Tip: TL fans you want TSM to lose against Gravity.

Team SoloMid

**New: ** Not much has changed overall for TSM, but they have improved their shot at Worlds solely by beating Gravity. TSM could lose all of their remaining matches and still take home a spot as Points Leader providing Team Liquid takes home first. TSM guarantees a spot at World's if they can beat Team Liquid. If they lose, they just need 3rd place to secure that world's spot. The only competitor for points leader for TSM is their next opponent, making that game incredibly important.

Cheer Tip: Still.. T-S-M. T-S-M. T-S-M.

Old: Given the large number of points TSM is carrying over from the Spring Split, they have lots of options for routes to world despite their difficulty in the later half of this split.

TSM is guaranteed a spot in the Regional Qualifiers even if they don't get out of the first round, so any TSM fans can still have hope outside the playoffs.

For TSM to guarantee a qualify with points, they need to beat Gravity and TL. If they lose the TL match they can still qualify with points if they win their match for 3rd. There is also the possibility that TSM qualifies with points without winning a single match. This would involve TL losing all of their matches and TIP either winning or coming in a spot less than second.

Cheer Tip: Keep chanting TSM.

Team Impulse

New: Impulse has a lot of momentum going into their matchup against CLG. Despite the loss of XWX, they have maintained their hotstreak from the second half of the split. Impulse is still in the running for points leader providing they are facing off against TSM in the finals. Either way in that scenario guarantees Impulse a shot at worlds - either they come out with 1st and earn their spot that way or take comfort in that 2nd place will earn them a spot as Points Leader.

_Cheer Tip: Cheer for TSM as well. _

Old: Impulse is in a good spot given their victory over Dignitas. Not only do they not have to worry about not having a chance at running the gauntlet at Regionals, as their spot in it is now guaranteed, they can still qualify as point leader, win the Summer Split, or worst case, qualify through Regionals. To keep their chance at point leader, TiP wants Gravity to beat TSM and then TL to lose their match for 3rd place.

Impulse also has a number of options. A second place finish could still yield them a spot in worlds. In that scenario, Impulse fans are wanting to face Gravity in the Championship and Team Liquid to lose their match for 3rd.

~~If Impulse fails to get out of the first round of playoffs, Gravity can not have won their match against TSM or there is a chance they would not have enough points to get into Regional Qualifiers if DIG manages to get higher than 4th. ~~

No matter what happens, as long as Impulse manages to get out of the first round, they are guaranteed a spot at Regionals.

Cheer Tip: Definitely want to be cheering against DIG in Round 1. Cheer Tip: Cheer against TSM.

Cloud 9

Cloud 9 fans... There is still hope for worlds. No matter what, C9 will make the Regional Qualifiers. With only 7 teams with points between the two splits and Team Impulse playing DIG in Round 1, C9 is guaranteed a chance to win that third slot.

Cheer Tip: Wait for qualifiers.

Dignitas

Given DIG's loss to TiP, they are out of the running for worlds.

DIG fans will be cheering for Gravity to lose to ensure they have a shot at Regionals. Even then, DIG has to finish higher than 4th place to secure that spot with any certainty if Gravity doesn't lose in the first round.

There is a longshot that Dignitas could qualify for worlds as point leader. This would require them to get all the way to the championships and lose to TSM. As long as TL didn't secure a spot higher than 4th, then DIG could be the points leader.

Cheer Tip: Root against Gravity - for safety.

**Counter Logic Gaming **

New: CLG's path hasn't changed. They want to be facing TSM in the finals and TL to lose their match for 3rd.

Cheer Tip: See previous cheer tip.

Old: CLG can actually qualify as points leader providing they are in a championship match with TSM and TL doesn't win their 3rd place matchup given how the bracket fell.

Cheer Tip: Cheer for TSM if they manage to get out of the first round. You want to face them in the Championships while wishing ill things on Team Liquid.

Gravity

Gravity is guaranteed a spot in the gauntlet given Team Impulse's victory, allowing Gravity fans to have a bit of a sigh of relief. Gravity still potentially has a long road to Worlds, but the pressure to win at any cost against TSM (had DIG won) is off.

Gravity's position in the bracket limits their options. Unlike CLG, they cannot qualify as the points leader given that TSM is guaranteed 20 points from this split. Gravity fans want to root against DIG, especially if Gravity loses its first round against TSM. If DIG loses against TIP, no matter what happens Gravity has a shot at Worlds through Regionals.

Cheer Tip: Cheer against DIG... for safety. Cheer Tip: Gravity fans want to be able to take the Summer Playoff Championship to avoid having to run the gauntlet for regional qualifiers.

29 Comments

Mostly Janna7/27/2015, 3:59:22 AM3 votes

Updated to correct an issues with the C9 scenarios.

EDIT: I'm tired and may have a missed a few scenarios. Please let me know if I do.

NeoDeimos7/27/2015, 4:03:34 AM3 votes

Cheer Tip (for CLG): Root for TSM to win it all if TSM manages to get out of the first round.

Well, that's awkward.

TurquoiseYoshi7/27/2015, 3:59:06 AM3 votes

This is good. Have a cookie item 2054

Mostly Janna7/27/2015, 11:24:45 AM2 votes

That awkward moment when you second guess yourself, spent time correcting things, then realize you were correct the first time. Still updated a few things... for clarity.

Count Buffon7/28/2015, 3:34:37 AM2 votes

Took me a while to find this so I knew what you were talking about:

http://na.lolesports.com/na-lcs/2015/naregqualifier/about http://na.lolesports.com/na-lcs/2015/naregqualifier/standings

TL;DR: - 1st place NA Summer championship --> Auto-qualify for Worlds (AQ) Most championship points (see spreadsheet at end of OP) --> AQ Four remaining teams by championship points --> Winner of regional qualifier tournament goes to worlds. (One seeded into finals, one seeded into semifinals, two seeded into quarterfinals)

It's really funny that TSM has to play Liquid, because they don't need the points, necessarily - they just needed Liquid to lose the semis. If CLG vs Liquid had gone the other way, there would have been more ways for TSM to AQ.

coeurloyal8/6/2015, 6:38:23 AM2 votes

Beautiful analysis.

Count Buffon7/31/2015, 5:03:14 PM2 votes

I think if Liquid throws all of their matches, then TSM can qualify on points even if they lose to Gravity. But Impulse can't be allowed to finish in exactly 2nd place.

coeurloyal8/13/2015, 7:54:20 AM1 votes

Posted this on the LCS site because someone was asking about TL's chances if they come in 3rd given the current situation. Maybe some of it would be worth incorporating in your post ;)

It depends on who wins between TiP and CLG. There are four roads for TL to go to Worlds:

  1. If TL wins the series and places first (the obvious road).
  1. If TSM and TiP head to the finals, Liquid will not be able to auto qualify and will have to win the gauntlet to go (which they very well could).
  1. If TSM beats CLG in the finals, TL can beat TiP for 3rd and auto qualify based on points. (most likely scenario, imo). If CLG wins and TSM comes in 2nd, they will have to win the gauntlet.
  1. If TL loses in the finals (2nd place) and TSM places 4th, TL will auto qualify based on points no matter what happens in the finals (incredibly unlikely, imo).

No matter how you look at it, TL has a really good shot at going to Worlds this year and I'd be surprised if they don't.

As a TL fan, you really just want TiP to lose no matter what happens this weekend because they could potentially ruin everything in so many different ways.

As for the other teams, it's pretty clear cut. TSM is almost guaranteed to go because one more win (regardless of where they place) sends them directly to Worlds and they can always win the gauntlet if they lose both. CLG either has to win the whole series or they have to win the guantlet to go because they cannot qualify based on points no matter what. If TL loses and TiP wins this weekend, TiP is also guaranteed a spot at Worlds no matter what happens. If TiP loses this weekend, they can either beat TL for 3rd or play the gauntlet for a seat.

tl;dr TL needs to take it all, play CLG in the finals, beat TiP for 3rd, or watch TSM come in 4th. TSM needs one more win to auto qualify, regardless of where they place. Failing that, they need TL to take it all. TiP needs to take it all or beat TL for 3rd place after TSM gets 1st. If both TSM and TiP lose a match, TiP is out no matter what. CLG either takes it all or prays that TiP beats TL for 3rd. Any other scenario leads to the gauntlet.

Mostly Janna8/15/2015, 3:25:35 AM1 votes

Updated before tomorrow's matchups. :)

Mostly Janna8/18/2015, 12:44:08 AM1 votes

Will update tomorrow.

NeoDeimos7/27/2015, 3:53:27 AM1 votes

The matrix isn't exactly correct in its current state, as CLG and Liquid can't possibly finish 5th/6th in the Summer Playoffs.

rtbf477586288/24/2015, 12:31:40 AM1 votes

So can gravity make it, given the fact CLG won?

BUNNYFUFUU THE DREAM IS STILL A L I V E ! Thresh

PoisonedTea7/27/2015, 12:35:09 PM1 votes

This is just Wrong

Dig needs to win to move one win 3rd at least or win 4th with gravity losing.

Dig CLG and Gravity will never be point leaders!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Why the fuck are you saying CLG can be a point leader.

Mostly Janna7/27/2015, 4:29:54 PM1 votes

Added an additional matrix with color coding and such.

DeynaTaggerung8/5/2015, 7:24:29 PM1 votes

Thank you for actually taking the time to do all this, there were many points that I doubted but you were right. Seriously though, this should be in "Meanwhile in Top lane", it's so useful.

Figure It Out8/5/2015, 8:56:36 PM1 votes

Holy sh*t that's helpful. Time to find an EU one! >.>

Mariner8/6/2015, 7:39:00 AM1 votes

... there is still hope. I'm amazed that after a really rough split C9 still even has a chance. There isn't much, but I hope that they still somehow make it.

Mostly Janna8/9/2015, 6:09:02 PM1 votes

Updated given conclusion of TiP vs DIG.