This years pickem for worlds is hard :S

Keylight XD·Sep 29, 2017·2 votes·1,859 views

Every group is a mess for second place :S There's really no safe bets except for the Korean teams. I don't think fnatic will make it out, and I dont think c9 will make it out.

thoughts on group A and B?

29 Comments

Miror BSep 29, 20171 votes

When in doubt pick china, as they technically have the 2nd-best worlds record of all regions.

Keylight XDSep 29, 20171 votes

True that but team WE doesn't look too convincing in my eyes(the rest do). I actually have team WE placed 4'th right now.

Miror BSep 29, 20172 votes

Really? I have'm placed first only because the rest of their group looks so massively underwhelming. Misfits are the third-best EU team in a region that hasn't really amazed anyone since the origen/fnatic days, FW are coming off of a split in which the entire region looked like one giant mess, and TSM is probably the luckiest team of all time as they not only avoided being stuck with any korean teams but also avoided ALL of the quality 2nd/3rd seed teams available. Out of that group, I have WE/TSM/FW/MSF in that order with my final two spots open to change should I get second thoughts about how bad the LMS looked this split.

Keylight XDSep 29, 20171 votes

team WE has maybe the perfect macro play and execution by the book but why I have them played 4'th is because they have no early game what so ever. They lack ganks to get them ahead (actually i think their strategy is to play it safe to mid game and then win).

So in my opinion I think the other teams in the group, especially TSM will gank early, and roam more. This is what will break team WE. Not saying TSM will make it out of the group but they seem more adaptive to playstyles than team WE.

Miror BSep 29, 20171 votes

You saying this shows that you have clearly not watched any LMS games and/or haven't watched misfits that closely. In the case of FW, like 90% of their early game was decided by swordart as karsa's ganks were weird to say the least (I have vivid memories of one he did with gragas where he did an entire loop around the enemy's blueside jungle getting spotted by 3 wards in the process, only to then flash/bodyslam and die under the enemy's t2 tower). With misfits, they oftentimes like to play more of a controlled style anyways so I can very easily see WE go a bit unpunished unless they shift things drastically.

Also, TSM ganking early? Are you sure? Unless sven gets his hands on lee sin, I can very easily see them focusing more on the whole "win lane win game" approach that they've done for most of the year, with the occassional gank toplane should sven not be dying to condi near WE's inhibs. Literally the only way TSM stands a chance vs them is if they focus entirely early game, as if they're ever even in a teamfight then they're sorta all dead.

Keylight XDSep 29, 20171 votes

I agree that TSM has been inconsistent this year but they finished strong in playoffs. And yes sven might be a problem in their early game execution, especially against condi. I guess I just remain hopeful that they will do their homework this year.

You are right, I have not been watching much of the LMS and FW could potentially flop.

Miror BSep 29, 20171 votes

I would heavily reccomend watching some of the LMS games just as a refresher then, as it could give you a better idea of how things will go in the group stages. Rest assured, I have AHQ finishing last in their group and am still torn between misfits and fw due to both teams being so ridiculously one-dimensional. The word "could" is also funny, as I'm entirely expecting at least one of them to go 0-6 with the other being either 2-4 or 1-5.

warpenguin555Sep 29, 20171 votes

http://pickem.lolesports.com/share/series/4/user/288522/my-picks

Coin toss for 2nd place in groups ABD, unsure about WE, but I really dont feel good about putting FW or TSM 1st

Keylight XDSep 29, 20171 votes

I feel confident in FW as they have a good world record, but when it comes to TSM? not a clue.. They always seem prepared and then they fail miserably at worlds.

BlueThingamajigSep 29, 20171 votes

I decided to go super hard on my NA bias in my selections, and made picks based on the following predictions:

Everyone > EU. EU teams last, because I want G2-8 to lose spectacularly, and I don't think Fnatic or Misfits are very good.
China is sloppy and will fail to show up (like TSM). Despite this, I still have RNG and WE making the bracket.
TSM, for once, WILL show up and win their painfully weak group. If only because I am a masochist and enjoy disappointment from my eighth-favorite NA team. This extends to my hopes for Cloud9, and Immortals, who have a 2nd-placeable group.
H2-What? H2Korean teams in finals.

Edit: My picks, as follows: A: SKT, C9, EDG, AHQ B: Longzhou, IMT, GAM, Fnatic C: Samsung, RNG, Fenerbahce, G2 D: TSM, WE, FW, Misfits

I'm not convinced by 1907 over G2, that one is a bit of wishful thinking.

Keylight XDSep 29, 20171 votes

yeah similar to my previous predictions too. Remain hopeful with TSM, but put korean teams first :P

Problem tho is that there is always upsets. Last year may have seemed like the easiest of predictions but then you had a wildcard making it out?

I guess the question is: what team is going to make an upset this year?

BlueThingamajigSep 29, 20171 votes

In hindsight, knowing CLG's counter-logical record when it comes to facing IWC teams, as well as G2-8's 2016 MSI performance, Albus Nox Luna making it to the bracket isn't that much of a stretch. But that's all hindsight. Most people weren't predicting G2 to pull a TSM or ANX to take a game off ROX.

I would look to C9 (whom I am predicting to upset EDG) and LMS teams (who haven't made a splash since MSI 2016). Maybe Gigabyte over Immortals, because I really like GAM and Levi, but who knows?

On a vaguely related note, I was thankful that C9 beat CLG in the gauntlet, because CLG would've lost to all those IWC teams.

Keylight XDSep 29, 20171 votes

{quoted} On a vaguely related note, I was thankful that C9 beat CLG in the gauntlet, because CLG would've lost to all those IWC teams.

Yes, I feel the same. C9 plays with a heart at worlds and always has a surprise in their pocket at group stage. Overall they look great this year although coming from the play-ins.

GeminiRuneSep 29, 20171 votes

Well I just did the same as I did last year: wing it! And then hope I don't need the 34 Points that badly by Knockout Stage. I'm not going for a perfect.

Keylight XDSep 29, 20171 votes

Thats what I'm saying, I dont think this year is going to be that easy on the predictions because teams look really good this year and meta allows for snowballing and faster games. I got my 34 points last 2 years but im struggling to put the pieces together this time.

Ale non è maleSep 29, 20171 votes

Group A is very easy actually to predict ON PAPER, EDG should easily get 2nd unless they sh*t the bed hard...allowing AHQ to get through in that situation

Group B is slightly harder, but depends all on how much you trust FNC players in their ability to show up on the big stage (and in FNC staff ability to get decent team comps), as anyone but Rekkles and sOAZ is a guarantee on international stage. If you think FNC can perform up to their talent, they get through easily at least as 2nd as their individual talent is superior to IMT/GAM, otherwise you go for IMT (GAM is feared after last season ANX and this season MSI so I don't think anyone will underrate wildcards and 2nd place is unlikely imho)

SlaynSep 29, 20171 votes

My opinion:

Group A - SKTelecom T1, Edward Gaming, Cloud 9, ahq e-Sports Club

Group B - Longzhu Gaming, Fnatic, Immortals, GIGABYTE Marines

Group C - Samsung Galaxy, Royal Never Give Up, G2 Esports, 1907 Fenerbahçe Espor

Group D - Team WE, TSM, Misfits Gaming, Flash Wolves

Those are the teams I chose for my Worlds Pick'ems hopefully you enjoy :)

KabraxisSep 30, 20171 votes

My Picks.

Group A - SKT, C9, EDG, AHQ

Group B - Longzhu, Immortals, Fnatic, Gigabyte

Group C - Samsung, RNG, G2, Fenerbahce

Group D - WE, TSM, Flash Wolves, Misfits.

Keylight XDOct 1, 20171 votes

oh that's cool, you went with immortals on group B for 2'nd. I thought Gigabyte was better than 4'th place? they not performing this year?

Hardstuck G4Oct 2, 20171 votes

GAM is a monster team, but FNC and IMT are both great as well. Regardless of what team is 4th, it's going to be a disappointment for them, since every team is strong

KabraxisOct 2, 20171 votes

IMO, if both IMT and FNC show up, while they won't beat Longzhou barring an act of god, they should beat GAM. From what I've seen and listening to the casters/analysts GAM hasn't been that great and basically got lucky to be shooed in to the main tournament.

Either way highest I'd have GAM is 3rd and FNC 4th if I were to change anything up.

Linna ExcelSep 30, 20171 votes

For me groups A and C were the easiest.

Group D is the one I'm having problems figuring out because it seems like it's the weakest one. I don't see any team getting past the knock out stage.

KabraxisSep 30, 20171 votes

They were all easy for me...not sure what was so hard for people :|

EronSKSep 30, 20171 votes

A-i pick SKT/Cloud9 B-i pick Fnatic/Immortals C-i pick G2/Samsung Galaxy D-i pick TSM but i dont know what to pick for second.

Dr PoroSep 30, 20171 votes

That's REALLY optimistic for the western teams. Group B you picked both western teams over the number 1 seed of KOREA? Come on. Predicting any korean team to not finish first is bold, but saying that their best team doesn't even make it knock out? I'd be surprised if they lose a game in that group.

AiliekpaiSep 30, 20171 votes

My pick-em's logic went something like this:

A: SKT, EDG, C9, AHQ - appears like a standard group with a possibility of C9 leapfrogging EDG for second. From what I hear AHQ doesn't look all that good and they're the only team I haven't watched this year.

B: LZ, FNC, GAM, IMT - other than LZ at first, this one could end up being totally different. GAM is good at BO1s and FNC is FNC. You never really know what you're gonna get with them. If they pop off they take 2nd easily. I'm not sure how IMT will perform on the big stage. They looked really good in NALCS, but this is totally different. Like I said, this group is muddy.

C: SSG, G2, RNG, FB - for me it's a battle for 2nd. There's a distinct possibility that the top 3 teams can all play well and take games off one another, but it's hard to bet against Koreans. FB are likely to go 0-6 unless someone completely disrespects them. This group is all about who is most consistent. G2, I'm looking at you. Don't fail ... again.

D: WE, FW, TSM, MSF - this one is probably the hardest to predict. WE didn't look as dominant in play-ins as expected. It's to be determined whether that's a sign of things to come, or whether they were just warming up. FW is very unpredictable and I think the group shapes up according to how they perform. I was tempted to give TSM the benefit of the doubt, but that came back to bite me last year when I picked them to top their group. The problem I have with TSM is that they don't seem to have another gear. They go hard all the time and what you see is what you get. I think other teams have an easier time preparing for them. Speaking of, preparation is what MSF does really well. I think them being overlooked plays into their hands. I'm looking at this group and see TSM splitting with FW and MSF and losing both games to WE, while FW splits with all 3 teams to edge TSM for second. Or it could be another tie breaker scenario for second. I seriously wouldn't be surprised with any way this group ended up.

So, yeah, don't have a lot of expectations for NA teams, but at least I won't be as disappointed if/when they don't do anything.

Keylight XDOct 2, 20172 votes

great analysis, I've reasoned the same way about WE and originally placed them as an underperformer for this worlds but, I've come to realize that they are a very consistent team in comparison to the others and so I'm also placing them first now.

FW I must also agree. This team is like wtf. Generally does well during worlds but has had problems (apparently) during the the split, although I've not watched them play. I think they can either show up or finish last. I guess it all comes down to bo1 like you said, and anything can happen. If TSM is smart they will prep with a surprise move and explosive wins for each game, but they would need to have something down their sleeve for every game. This is not exactly what TSM normally does. Like you said, what you see is what you get. Couldn't be more true about this team. I guess the question is, are FW and MSF better at bo1 than TSM? this isn't na lcs where slow, coordinated games matter as much as having the element of surprise. This is something that definitely is worrysome.

generally agree with you on group A and B.

curious on group C. Although we expect G2 to show up, are you sure that they can best RNG? Looking back at LPL playoff. all games involved WE, EDG, and RNG were won 3-2, and so I think that they are all really strong and even teams. Just a thought.

AiliekpaiOct 3, 20171 votes

It's a little less about expecting G2 to show up and more about hoping they do. Can't help but think it's their last chance to prove they're legit internationally. MSI was nice, but still shaky as hell. If they fall on their faces again it's hard to imagine this roster staying together for another full year. I think any one of SSG, RNG and G2 playing to their potential can end up tops in that group. It's just more likely that SSG will do that. Plus I think they don't need to be at their best to do it. The pressure is on all 3 Chinese teams, G2 and TSM the most IMO. In that respect groups C and D are more interesting to me personally.