I think the RNG of hextech is broken. I keep getting doubles of at least 3 skins now.

Hethalean·5/11/2019, 1:53:19 AM·1 votes·1,110 views

Maybe I should play the lottery with this sort of rarity.

7 Comments

The Ecdysiast5/11/2019, 2:16:36 AM1 votes

Not really broken, it was just never honest to begin with. The odds of getting a particular shard three times in a row are roughly 1/1,000,000,000 (there are around 1,000 skins in the game, so 1/1,000 x 1/1,000 x 1/1,000).

I'm totally convinced there's hidden aspect to the formula that increases the odds of duplicates by an insane amount.

DerMangoJoghurt5/11/2019, 7:27:06 AM1 votes

Duplicates are surprisingly common. The problem is called the birthday paradox in probability theory if you're interested. tl;dr: In a room of 23 people there is a 50% chance at least two will share a birthday. In a room of 70 people it's a 99.9% chance.

If we assume there are 900 skins you can get through Hextech crafting, you are more likely to have a duplicate than not, once you get more than 35 skins/skin shards. At 23 skins it's a 25% chance, at 14 it's a 10% chance. Skins you have bought outside of Hextech Crafting further increase that probability.

If anything it would be an indicator for broken rng if you weren't getting duplicates.

KFCeytron5/11/2019, 7:28:58 AM1 votes

The problem with randomness is that you technically can't tell whether it's broken through mere observation.