I think the RNG of hextech is broken. I keep getting doubles of at least 3 skins now.

Hethalean··1 votes·1,110 views

Maybe I should play the lottery with this sort of rarity.

7 Comments

The Ecdysiast1 votes

Not really broken, it was just never honest to begin with. The odds of getting a particular shard three times in a row are roughly 1/1,000,000,000 (there are around 1,000 skins in the game, so 1/1,000 x 1/1,000 x 1/1,000).

I'm totally convinced there's hidden aspect to the formula that increases the odds of duplicates by an insane amount.

Hethalean1 votes

That could be. Ty

DerMangoJoghurt1 votes

Duplicates are surprisingly common. The problem is called the birthday paradox in probability theory if you're interested. tl;dr: In a room of 23 people there is a 50% chance at least two will share a birthday. In a room of 70 people it's a 99.9% chance.

If we assume there are 900 skins you can get through Hextech crafting, you are more likely to have a duplicate than not, once you get more than 35 skins/skin shards. At 23 skins it's a 25% chance, at 14 it's a 10% chance. Skins you have bought outside of Hextech Crafting further increase that probability.

If anything it would be an indicator for broken rng if you weren't getting duplicates.

Hethalean1 votes

I forgot the statistical formulas to calculate this for myself, but 50% chance seems high. However, once you open 35 hextech chests, is it 50% chance to get 1 duplicate?

DerMangoJoghurt1 votes

The formula is p(n)= 1 - 900! / ( 900^n * (900-n)! ) (Exchange 900 for the number of unique possible birthdays/skin shards/whatever fits your problem.)

It calculates the probability to find at least one duplicate in n number of tries. If you receive 35 skin shards there is roughly a 50% chance you received a duplicate somewhere along the line. That doesn't mean there's a 50% chance to receive a duplicate on exactly your 35th skin shard.

KFCeytron1 votes

The problem with randomness is that you technically can't tell whether it's broken through mere observation.

Hethalean1 votes

True, the only thing to do is report it when you have a suspicion. Especially with Riot, assuming they got RNG correct would be a stretch considering how much a lot of their other stuff breaks so easily.

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