Some of it does seem pretty suspect. Look at a number of top-tier champions, or champions that have received recent buffs just before getting new skins, or champions who have nerfs announced for them just after getting new skins. I feel like the skin design team and the balance team wouldn't talk enough for them to be able to balance champions so people buy skins for them, but it's not entirely impossible. Look at Ashe, for example. She's been strong for several patches now, and doesn't get nerfs announced for her until after PROJECT: Ashe drops.
I am a Twitch main, and I heavily agree that he needs new skins that aren't complete trash. But, I don't think he'll get a good one any time in the near future. It's just smart business to make the pay content based around what's strong or popular. Twitch is strong, but since people don't realize how strong he can be, he isn't popular. As such, sad to say, but it's unlikely he'll get a new skin until we're in a meta favored above these pick-type champions. With Jhin and Ashe being nerfed and the game becoming more late-game focused, Twitch could certainly see a resurgence in popularity - and with that, I'm hoping for a new Halloween skin for him. I remember the VU for him - they specifically said that they were doing it to get an easier model to make skins with - and then he gets 2 skins in the 3-4 years since, both aren't particularly good, and every other skin is retired.