We have mixed messages, a HORRIBLE attitude from Riot(blunt statements like 'fix your connection' with no sympathy), and anecdotes coming in from all over of people being punished for having to restart the client, or for disconnecting twice, etc.
I'm probably going to get downvoted for this, but I really think people are blowing this way out of proportion. Bottom line, if you weren't affected by LeaverBuster you're unlikely to get affected by these new changes. The messages have maybe been a bit unclear, sure, but Riot isn't going to be punishing random people for a single leave in a four year period. My assumption is that it's intentionally obfuscated so that people can't try to game the system.
This whole system is a giant blunder, and it has made me lose most of what trust I had left in Riot.
If something this minor makes you lose trust in Riot, it seems there wasn't much trust there to begin with. I get that, I truly do. There are some things Riot does that are just weird and unnecessary from the perspective of the players, like the random chat room destruction that they were forced to revert (somewhat) a few days later or the fact it still hasn't been explained why the old forums had to be crushed into the Boards so suddenly.
Sorry, bit of a tangent. I urge you to just give it some time and see how things go. Contrary to what people seem to think, Riot has absolutely zero incentive to blanket punish their playerbase. If the system doesn't work properly, it will be worked on until it's at least passable.
The problem with your 'bottom line' is that it's not true. People already HAVE been affected by it who hadn't been previously. The new system is DESIGNED to be more aggressive... you can't be more aggressive without affecting people who didn't before. That's just impossible.
But I agree, that's why it's being obfuscated... but at this point I think they're sticking to that a little too hard. It's probably not worth keeping it obscure for the sake of that given how much trouble they're getting into OVER how obscure it is.
As to the second thing... I don't see this as something minor. This is probably, in my eyes, the least intelligent and least player-friendly thing they've EVER done. I rate this as being WAY worse than the boards, way worse than the communication over the DDOS issue, or any of the other minor things they've done.
To me this is a way of teaching your fanbase a horrible message and treating them like garbage.
The message it's sending: League is more important than everything else. If you disagree with this statement, if you think League should be just a game, or if you're not able to devote enough resources to ensure your situation is absolutely 100% ideal for playing the game: Find Another Game.
It's teaching people that there is no valid reason for leaving a game, which is a HORRIBLE misprioritization. A large part of League's playerbase ARE still impressionable teens or kids. Is this the message we want the game to teach them? Not that I'm saying it's Riot's responsibility to raise people(because it's not), but they could at least make sure of the message their system sends so they don't make parents jobs harder.
Right now it's sending the message that League of Legends is not just a game, it's more important than that. And if you treat it as less than that, you're in the wrong and MUST be punished for it - up to and including the complete removal of your ability to play.
It's also telling people that the low system requirements and accessible internet requirements they have are a lie. If you cannot devote the resources to have a backup power system, a very good and very stable computer, someone to maintain it to tip top shape if you can't yourself, and a top tier internet connection.... Find Another Game.
I mean hell, they even applied this system to BOT GAMES - you know, the game mode you're supposed to play if you just want a casual experience and don't even want to worry about playing against people... the game mode that actually ADAPTS around how many players are in the game(bots will go afk if someone leaves)... so they're literally telling people that if your situation isn't ideal, then we don't want you playing... regardless of how much money you've already spent on our game.
It's like they're forgetting why they kept their system requirements low for so long.
So ya, to me... this is a big issue. It's a REALLY big issue, and it's one I don't see them adequately caring about.