why do i get placed in unfair matches when i am on a winning streak

GHOST1331·Jun 20, 2019·1 votes·1,069 views

so i start my day off good winning three games, but i notice something weird in the third game. game one and two i gain 23 then 22 lp resp. then game three it goes down to 20. usually the average tier of my games is silver 3 ( slv2 slv3 slv4) but fourth game i notice in the loading screen that my team has two bronze 2 people from bronze one and one slv 4 and two slv 3 me included( one of the brnz 1 is on a huge loose strack feeding like 5 games). we got stomped and i check the enemy team and they are three slv3 one slv 2 and one slv 4.

so to recap a team with average tier slv4 at best against slv 3. how is this fair. why do they do that to me like that is not fair for me so why did this happen to me??? plus i lost 19 lp for that game so my mmr isnt even high like how can i climb like this???

3 Comments

Kai GuyJun 20, 20193 votes

Its pretty simple. You overvalue 3 games as a streak. The time your most likely to lose is when you have mismatched teammates. Any game you have weak teammates your more likely to lose. The assumption the system has it out for you.. but randomly does not for other players is kinda… bad imo. Also you counted some of that other guys Flex loses as his solo losses. only a 3 game "streak".

There is nothing weird about it. 3 games is just a terrible number to use for a Elo or MMR system. https://www.random.org/coins/?num=128&cur=60-usd.0100c-anthony I took the 128 as the # of flips to represent how many ranked games you played and put them into a string of Coinflips. Go ahead and look at how many times you see "streaks" Last time I did this the result was over 50% of all coins where part of a "streak" And this is at "fair" 50% odds.

I think 7 is an ok number to count as a streak thou personal I use 10. 2^3 is 8. Only 1 result is 3 heads. 2^7 is 128 and 2^10 is 1024 to 1. But...that's only for out of the streak. out of 3 games out of 7 and out of 10. The total # of games impacts how many times you see combinations which drops those odds down. Its grows exponentially for some number values that require a massive top end number to just generate the results once. Which is what i am trying to show with my x to one odds, out of only 3 flips there is 8 possible outcomes only 1 is 3 heads. Now. Lets take a look at 2^4. 16 to 1 How many times could I see at least 3 heads? HHHH THHH HHHT. Of the 16 outcomes 3 of them are a streak.

I am not the best with this kind of math but it should be more or less accurate for you to get a basic idea here.

Also streaks don't matter. Consistency does. Its about overall win %. The order is meangless to your MMR. Its the sum of all games + various modifications like K factor and We. I don't want to have to explain those unless i need to because the basic concepts pretty easy to show.

Wins = adds mmr. Losses = Subtracts mmr. so WWWLL is the same as WLWLW or LWWWL. Your still getting the value of 1 W worth of MMR regardless of the order they show up in.

Now the actual MMR per match might not be the same But if you just reorder a game after its played the MMR from that game is going to be the same value.

GHOST1331Jun 20, 20191 votes

Ok that is a very good point illustrated in a great way. One comment is that my problem is not with my "streak", which I agree is not a real streak, being stopped. My problem is being placed in an unfair game. This is not only from my perspective. Let's say I am the bronze player in my team going up against all those mid silver players. That's not fair. One may argue that this bronze player has high mmr because he is good but I looked at his past 20 games and there are about 4 wins so that doesn't make sense. I'm not saying riot is out to get me, I'm saying the system that keeps me at 50/50 is not fair. Place me in fair games where both teams on average are equal or my lane opponent is higher and if I win then good for me and if I loose then that's how I drop games. I don't want to win every game but don't place me In a game I can't win.

Kai GuyJun 20, 20191 votes

One of your bronze teammates is 1 win away from promoting to silver. more or less seems like its fair for him to be in a s4 game. But One of your bronze teammates is indeed a weak player. Looks like complete deadweight for his teams in his current MMR this season due and I expect they will keep losing until they are low bronze or high Iron.

That players starting point is not in bronze thou, I expect they had a silver MMR because of the soft reset, having been silver 3 and 80ish LP last year. They have some champions they can play decently enough to not be losing teammates a majority of games but the dudes not playing them. Not good enough to climb but enough to not cripple their team like they are right now by maining champions they underperform on constantly.

So it looks like the opposite. he was not in that game because he is climbing the ladder but because he is actively sinking from his prior season.

Also... its harder compared to other years to try and grade skill comparing last season and the current one because Riot made changes to the Tiers and Ranked system this season which kind of fked everything up. Now its my opinion that they downgraded the ladder by overlapping old tiers with new ones. Theres 27 options for a "title" starting at B5. This year there is also 27 options for a Title. Starting at I4. A title is rank and division, its got zero meaning until its accurate off enough points of data but overall the entire LP systems a distraction to make players engage in the game more and feel better about the rating system.

Part of Elo and MMR systems is they expect to be wrong. There is no way around this. It requires data so low # games on an account mean it is basically just in a calibration period where you see the results from it vs your average players and move them around in response. Thing is... still the best system because its objective and will properly sort players by skill. The reason its solid is its dam hard to manipulate. The benefit for players is that it will Always aim to self correct so if you get better your raiting improves. If you get worse it goes down... and in a game like league with constant patches and balance adjustment. Some times a player gets worse, not because their skill dropped but their champions power has decreased. Or been removed completely from the game via a rework and they now have to learn a new kit that they might not be any good at. Why I don't recommend being an OTP, better to be able to adapt.

There's going to be some awful one sided games. Players need to not use Titles to gauge skill because its not inherently going to provide good expectations for a match. To be blunt...Its pretty fucking frustrating when you get back to back garbage allies. But that RNG luck is never going to cripple any ones ability to climb because the odds are skewed to favor you to win form mismatched baddies then lose. 9 other players. 4 slots for your team 5 for the enemy RNG distribution will put baddies on the other side more often.

Its difficult to remove yourself from the equation some times. I want to ask you if it would it really be a fair system if it only put you vs a lane that's equal or superior to you? Is it fair your opponent only have to vs some one equal or weaker then them? What impact should that make on teammates and how should it be sorted? Which players deserve to only get equal or weaker enemy's and what ones need to fight equal or stronger?

Imo,it needs to be universal for all players to be fair and that means not giving a dam about any individuals experience. Blatant manipulation of MM is never going to be healthy imo. RNG is frustrating but it is fair, just ask Thanatos.

I am a huge nerd, I really like Arpad Elo's Elo system and all its MMR derivatives thou I don't always like Devs implementations of it. (Riot's Duoing is something I hate.) They are made of probability theory and self correction which are things I find awesome. I have Tried to not go off to much on the topic because my post tends to be about double the length of this wall when I do.

Feel free to hit me up if you wanna learn more about them. Or alternatively if you just wanna chat about playing league and are looking for help improving. Id say add me but we are not on the same server. Your Twitch looks solid btw. Please feel free to box quote anything I said you need clarity on or you disagree with then show your logic. I can/have be/been wrong and enjoy the opportunity to adjust my viewpoint.

TLDR. One players making bad calls on their picks and losing hella. Had a higher starting MMR. The other looks to have started off badly, but has a low # of games and is currently correcting their start and closing the MMR deficit they have. Neither has enough games for me to treat their current division or rank as accurate.