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So why consistency is a sign of balance?

Mecha MaIphite··13 votes·813 views

A consistent winrate of around 49-51%, sure. That's probably balanced. But what about winrates that stray out of that range?

Yes, this is about Ahri; or rather, a specific argument people keep bringing up. I've seen some people claim that because her winrate never really changed, she's completely fine and shouldn't be nerfed. But to me, the only thing consistency shows is that she isn't as affected by meta shifts. Is that indicative of good design? Maybe. Of balance? I'm not convinced. A champion with a consistent 60% winrate is obviously broken, and a champion with a consistent 40% winrate probably needs some help.

"But her winrate isn't 60%, it's ~53%!" Yes, but (most) people aren't suggesting she be gutted entirely. The most common nerf I've seen is a Q MS nerf, and that seems pretty reasonable.

I'm open to hear any arguments as to why consistency = balance, and I will accept it if they make sense, but at the moment, I'm pretty skeptical.

24 Comments

Oleandervine8 votes

A consistent performance is indicative of a level of balance that supercedes the meta. If Ahri continuously manages to hold onto a ~53% winrate season after season, and patch after patch, that means she has incredible, enduring stability. It means her kit is in a healthy place that isn't overbearing or underwhelming, and it means that even due to her massive popularity, players new and old alike have managed to display a consistent skill level with her. It may err on the side of a little strong, but all champions should strive to maintain winrate consistency like hers over the years.

Mecha MaIphite6 votes

I agree that stability is something Riot should strive for in terms of champion strength, but stability in a good position. Ahri's isn't broken, but I think most of us can agree she needs a safety nerf to push her into a better spot.

INoble KnightI1 votes

A "safety nerf?" She's fine the way she is and if you nerf her you'll just ruin the balance. There's a saying, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."

Limmie3 votes

I think the whole point is that she's already broken to begin with...

INoble KnightI2 votes

How is she broke? Explain.

Limmie1 votes

She's got a winrate of 53,76% whilst having a pickrate of 21.36%. You can have a high winrate with a low pickrate (Rammus), or a low winrate with a high pickrate (Ezreal). But having both a high winrate and playrate spells broken.

INoble KnightI1 votes

What about her kit is broken? Details please.

Limmie1 votes

Tbh, I'm just looking at the play stats. But if you press me I'd say she's too safe because of her high range, mobility and reliability. She's a champion that is good at both poke and all-ins, and has innate sustain. It's hard to punish her too because of her mobility (3 dashes on ult, and the ms bonus with q) and self-peel, so it's possible to do well on her even playing poorly.

Ultimately, I'd say she needs to be a little less reliable.

INoble KnightI2 votes

She has a bit of a high skill floor to do well but I do think her sustain is rather low in my opinion. When I used to play mid a lot I never seemed to have an issue with her but I usually played poke and cc mages against her. She can get rather annoying though I will grant you that. Also thank you for the actual response with details, gives me some hope on these boards.

MissingKayo3 votes

Except she's not fucking fine which is why she needs the nerfs to fix it lmao

INoble KnightI1 votes

Care to explain?

Eedat13 votes

It is mathematically impossible for every champion to maintain a 53% winrate. The argument that "well shes been overtuned for so long now that we should just leave her that way" is bullshit

MissingKayo2 votes

You realize 53-54% is very high to be holding for literally every single patch ever since release?

Viktor Von Lazer3 votes

I don't think Ahri is broken. I think she has a safe relatively balanced kit that is REALLY good for soloQ. She's a winlane win game champion without too many drawbacks and a kit versatile enough to played in many styles depending on her opponent. She's not oppressive, she's not broken (although her windows for punishment are a bit too short) but most people, myself included just feel she's in too good of a spot. That a small nerf to bring her in line with all the other mid laners that just flat out get gutted or nerfed indirectly (ryze, leblanc, azir, viktor etc) would be a good a change. Is Ahri balanced? Maybe... But how balanced can you remain if all the competition is getting nerfed directly or indirectly..

Mecha MaIphite3 votes

Yeah, she isn't broken, and I think we can all agree her safety needs a small change.

But isn't being too good mutually exclusive to being balanced? Maybe I'm just confused about the semantics, but for me, a balanced champion doesn't need changes to be in a healthy spot.

PrinceOfStorms4 votes

The issue with Ahri is that she has no real weaknesses.

NGNL Asian2 votes

[{quoted}](name=Mecha MaIphite,realm=NA,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=Ej1WLek9,comment-id=00010000,timestamp=2017-03-30T22:28:45.723+0000)

Yeah, she isn't broken, and I think we can all agree her safety needs a small change.

But isn't being too good mutually exclusive to being balanced? Maybe I'm just confused about the semantics, but for me, a balanced champion doesn't need changes to be in a healthy spot.

Honestly just get rid of her Q ms I dont care about how people complain about her ult mobility.

Viktor Von Lazer4 votes

[{quoted}](name=Mecha MaIphite,realm=NA,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=Ej1WLek9,comment-id=00010000,timestamp=2017-03-30T22:28:45.723+0000)

Yeah, she isn't broken, and I think we can all agree her safety needs a small change.

But isn't being too good mutually exclusive to being balanced? Maybe I'm just confused about the semantics, but for me, a balanced champion doesn't need changes to be in a healthy spot.

Not necessarily. A champion can be a good generalist like Orianna who is an excellent blind pick. She has shields, speed ups, slow downs, 1 shot potential with items, AoE damage for teamfights, zoning and a game changing ultimate. When you pick Orianna, you're definitely not picking a champion that great in any one of these categories but almost all options are available to her and she can hard carrying choosing the right ones at the right time. She's a good champion atm with a slightly above 50% winrate. Now if you nerf her competition to the ground some more... say a couple assassins, ahri and anivia.. her winrate will probably shoot up 2 points and take Ahri's spot. That's not to say Orianna's kit isn't BALANCED, but balanced is always RELATIVE to other champions. If she's doing comparable damage to a nerfed assassin but has THAT much ultility then there's no point in picking the assassin. So Ahri's it isn't too bad. But only very minor changes need to be made so she doesn't crowd out the other midlaners. EIther that, or buff those that have been hurt the most by nerfs, which i think is the better solution.

NGNL Asian2 votes

How about we fucking nerf graves first, it's unhealthy for any champ to have that banrate and damage and tankiness. Seriously riot, I dont give a shit about anything butt if you nerf his tankiness, keep the damage. If you nerf the damage, keep the tankiness. I honestly think that would be fair because it's a equivalent trade.

Mecha MaIphite5 votes

Graves is not ahri nor is his winrate consistent. He may be a problem but that's not really relevant here.

Mannny1 votes

Would be fine but the fact that her playrate almost tripled and it's still the same brings up worries.

ABlueQuaker1 votes

She's no more deserving of a nerf than Caitlyn or Janna or Orianna or Fiora. They're balanced champions with high potential strength.

WalkingInACircle1 votes

Having made this argument myself, "design" is a suitable substitution for "balance" but I don't think of balance as straightforward win/lose chance. Eg "balanced gameplay". Each piece of the game needs to have relevance. Ahri endures changes of metas, of comps, items, game length, etc., without much difficulty. Meaning a player can adapt her as needed. Her kit is very generalist as one might expect.

As to winrate, its the main argument for nerfing her which was previously stifled by being nonexistent in LCS. Shes there now, but nothing has changed about the champion. Certainly nothing to justify the main nerf people ask for, removing her q move speed which is quite a powerful mechanic and therefore quite a nerf.

Anyways, I wouldn't balance around winrate. A couple things people don't usually think about the stats:

  1. The match making system: There is a system in the game designed to bring players to a 50% winrate. A onetrick will be brought to it eventually regardless of their champion choice. People who play multiple champions usually get results that reflect their practice with that champion.

  2. The FotM players: whenever a champion becomes FotM, their winrate, playrate, and banrate all go up. I've watched this happen many times. The boards run an argument that higher play rate = more noobs but at high elo ranked where the stats are drawn from I tend to think it's tryhards. It does not take them long to grasp how a champion functions, and Ahri is not particularly difficult.

Sozan52 votes

There is a system in the game designed to bring players to a 50% winrate.

This ain't completely wrong, but by your phrasing of that I think you misunderstand how it works.

You are brought to 50% winrate because once you reach your skill level you will face enemies that are about as good as you - that means you just won't be able to win more than 50% of games until you improve (and a lot of players just try to grind ranks instead of trying to improve themselves - this has led to the belief that something like "Elo Hell" or a system that actively tries to put you in 50% winrate exists).

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