Popularity vs win rate. Here are my thoughts.

So i was thinking about the link between pick rate and win rate and i came up with this opinion:_ if a champ is more popular, the less accurate its win rate will be._ Let me explain. If we consider the fact that most people use a champ,most of the times it means that that champ is strong and may have a higher than normal win rate which makes the champ much more appealable, so we must assume that not everyone knows how to properly use that champ and so it contaminates the win rate sample. If we consider instead a champ which isn't used by many people, which means that in large scale ( keep in mind this term), the champ isn't very successful and may have a lower than normal win rate, this means that we can assume that most of that people know how to properly use that champ. So the win rate sample will be acceptable and accurate. Now you may ask, why fewer people would mean that those people know how to properly use that champ? Then i want to remind you the Azir desperate balance scenario. For most people, sorry for the following term, Azir is a terrible champ, maybe he has the lowest win rate ever among all other mid laners, if not overall. But there is one aspect of this scenario. He has indeed the maybe-lowest win rate, but in the hands of a main azir, he can achieve good if not high win rate. Now lets consider the aspect of low popularity/pick rate. Why we can assume that almost always, a champ with low pick rate means that it has a relatively low win rate? To answer this i'll ask you then: why would you pick a champ when there is another one which is better and fits most the current meta? I think the reason behind this relation can be pretty obvious. So back to my main thought: the less it gets picked, the more accurate its win rate will be. The more it gets picked , the less its win rate will be accurate. This can be explained by this main logic. People who tend to keep playing least popular champs, are most of the time people who main those champs. If we want to get the true win rate from a champ you want to observe people who know how to play that champ, not those who play it for the first time , right? So if a champ with one of the highest pick rates gets picked, most of the times the player who plays it isn't a main of that champ because the number of people with 125+ games is a lot smaller than those who casually play a popular champ (not everyone is a true boxbox..). Most of the people picks a champ with high win rate because they find out that winning with that champ doesn't require lots of experience (like azir) or because it is generally strong even if you don't know how to properly use it. So we can assume that we can only truly balance the least popular champs and not the most popular ones. Thanks for reading this post. Feel free to share your opinions too! [slayer-pantheon-thumbs]