I don't believe it will be Targon or the Shadow/Blessed Isles. First of all, the monks of the Blessed Isles didn't really practice imprisonment. Thresh's runic warlock is an exception of course, because he embedded the ancient, dark magic directly in his flesh and thus couldn't be allowed free to share that magic with others. The monks were generally peaceful protectors of the world by safekeeping ancient evil magics, they didn't imprison people because their society doesn't generally have a lot of disorder or war like Demacia or Noxus does, so I don't know why people keep thinking that a prisoner might hail from the Blessed Isles.
From a design standpoint, that prison and the chain design aren't Targonian - they utilize far too bright of a stone with smoother, crisper edges and polished surfaces, and the chains are very angular and geometric, which are design elements Targon doesn't favor.
It makes the most sense for it to be Demacian, considering it's been a LONG time since our last Demacian, and there's been surprisingly little lore from the region.