Lancer Zero Hecarim hype. Actually jk. There's probably like a 2% chance that you get that skin shard out of a Mega Orb.
https://thumbs.gfycat.com/IdenticalFirstBats-size_restricted.gif
I think it will be way lower than 2%. 2% is the normal drop chance for Gemstones I think. This Skin is worth ten, so they're going to make it ridiculous to get.
No doubt about it. I was just joking when I said 2% but it likely is far lower than that. It's probably a decimal percentage like maybe a 0.1% chance or something. I wouldn't put it past Riot to do something like that.
I watched a couple of videos where streamers were on the PBE opening up the Order and Chaos orbs during the VS Event. Most of the time when they got an extra drop, it was almost always 20 bonus Order/Chaos tokens. Hextech Crafting is a straight up scam that's advertised under the guise of rewarding sportsmanlike players with free content. I watched (Richboy) RedMercy open up about $300 worth of Hextech Chests and he only ended up with like 7 gemstones, I believe. I wasn't the one who spent $300 on those Hextech Chests but I still somehow felt like I was the one who got robbed by the time I made it to the end of the video. I don't know how to explain it.
I don't personally see a point in the Mega orbs, considering how low your odds at getting the new skin will be anyway. I think on average a regular skin shard is actually worth more than a legacy shard.