[{quoted}](name=Pi Xel Moloto V,realm=NA,application-id=cIfEodbz,discussion-id=rMUypWuv,comment-id=00020000,timestamp=2016-07-05T23:42:33.002+0000)
I thought the chances went down each day. Not each time you got a key. (As a guess it's like 50%, 35%, 25%, 16.5% for the first 4 days?)
No I am pretty sure the Reds said it was based on each time you got a key. The whole reason they did this was so people who played less were rewarded at about the same rate as someone who played more often. If it was based on the day then people would just spam games those first 4 days.
For those that play often it amounts to those first 4 days because after a reset you will get most of your key fragments right after a reset.
BTW I think you only get a bonus to your chance % if you are grouped. It was another one of those thing Riot put in to force people to play in premades.