Why the Swain nerf should be changed or not go through at all
Recently I've come to learn that there is a nerf planned for Swain.
> Nevermove (W) root duration reduced to 1/1.3/1.5/1.8/2 seconds from 2 at all ranks
I have a feeling that the main reason swain is getting nerfed is because of death fire touch. Not only is the nerf unwarranted but it also doesnt even hit the mark of the goal i assume the balance team is trying to achieve. Frankly speaking, I feel that swain is finally in a decent spot for the first time since his release and nerfing the w duration is going to put him in such an imbalanced state that I don't even think he'd be worth playing anymore. His whole kit revolves around having sufficient duration on his snare. Since I don't want to just complain about nerfs I'd like to give some arguments as to why I think what I do.
Danger of imbalance The main reason why nerfing Swain in this manner is so reckless is because his entire kit revolves around the duration of his Nevermove. Decrepify, Swain's "Q" is a 3 second tether that breaks off entirely if someone walks out of range. That means that when used at max range, you will effectively only apply 1 tick of the ability if the enemy walks away. Nevermove was used as a move to keep the enemy in Decrepify's range since you could get the full damage off. Note that it already takes about half a second to walk up to the enemy when you land a full range Nevermove so you only have a 1.5s snare duration to use your q on the enemy anyway unless you flash on your enemy. Effectively, that means that you only have about 2 ticks of your "Q" under good circumstances and a 3rd tick if they decide to fight instead of run. If the duration of the snare is reduced to 1s then it's pretty much guaranteed that your "Q" will only tick once since they will just walk away after. Swain's ultimate, "Ravenous Flock" works in a similar manner. Every second one raven would attack the enemy. With the way it is now, you can reliably get 2(and a 3rd if they fight) ravens off if you take the time it takes to walk up to the enemy into account. Again, nerfing the duration of the snare you only get 1 raven tick. If you take auto attacks into account, you could sometimes throw 2 auto attacks. Nerfing the duration of the snare brings this down to just 1 auto attack. To put all of that into perspective, at level 6 instead of getting 2-3 Q ticks you only get 1, instead of getting 2 ravens you only get 1 and instead of 2 auto attacks you only get 1. Since most Swains will have 3 lvls in e, 1 lvl in q, 1 lvl in w and 1 in R the damage you miss out on lvl 6 by having 1s snare is: Q(25 + 0.3 AP), R(50+0.2 AP), Auto(64 dmg) amplified by his E by 14% which amounts to 158.46 +0.57 AP. You can expect a standard swain to have about 20-35 AP at level 6(also take into account 2%/2,5%/5% damage amplifications from your masteries).
Eitherway, the damage lost will amount to about 180 mixed damage before resistances just by reducing the duration of the snare by 1s. Take into account that a standard level 6 champion has about 750 base health to 1k base health. 180 mixed damage is about 18-24% of those amounts of health. Losing that much damage on your combo just because Swain has moderate synergy with deathfire touch is absolutely ludicrous and will absolutely destroy the balance of Swain. It's already hard enough to hit a max-range snare but now there is barely any reward for landing it because you will probably lose so much mana for so little damage that it will not be a favorable trade in most cases.
Swain also has all-in potential at level 3 or 4, depending on when he takes snare. Again, damage is diminished by a ridiculous amount because of the snare duration but I'm sure I've made my point clear by now.
The current state of Swain With all that said, let's talk about the current state of Swain. Right now Swain is a mid counterpick with clear strengths and weaknesses with a strong midgame where he serves as a front line mage. He excels at dealing with melee mids(like katarina, zed) but fails horribly at dealing with longer ranged control mages(like syndra, lux, azir, xerath, etc.). Swain has abysmal waveclear and has trouble with anyone that can shove fast enough to make him farm under turret. I'm pretty good at farming under turret but control mages will make you miss at least half of your cs by zoning you out with skill shots and just the natural state of farming under tower makes you lose more cs. Losing more cs under tower means you won't get last hits, means you won't get mana from your passive. You're also going to be forced to use your e and q under turret to not miss cs. Combine that with the fact that his auto attack animation is one of the worst in the game, you can easily see how a game can snowball in the enemy's favor once you're stuck farming under turret. But despite all of that, he is currently fine. The cs you miss is offset by your good kill potential on lvl 3, 4 and 6. Landing a max range snare can turn the lane in your favor against a control mage(except if they take heal/barrier/cleans, you're pretty much screwed then). You'll need at least 3 snares(to burn through their pots) to guarantee a kill, though. Sometimes 2 is enough. Eitherway, against control mages these snares are super hard to hit since all their abilities outrange you and you can only get these snares off if your enemy severely missteps by greeding for a cs. Note that since W is a snare, not a stun the enemies can still use non-dash abilities. Against a syndra, for example, even if I were to land a full range snare I'd have to dodge syndra's q-e combo as I walk up to combo her or I would be the one losing the trade. Same thing happens against other mages, cassiopeia, lux, even assassins like zed have ways to deal with snare by ulting or whatnot.
My point is, Nevermove has an absurd amount of counterplay and nerfing the duration of it is going to put Swain in such a bad spot that he's going to be pretty much pointless to pick. And let's be real, there's already not that many instances when you actually want to pick him with the current meta. You mainly pick him for his lane bullying potential against melee mids and for his great midgame power spike with zhonya and roa. Zhonya/ROA has a combined increased cost of 800g right now so it's extremely hard to get a good timing for this power spike, especially since the average game time is much shorter now with all the preseason changes. With TP becoming less popular and ignite becoming more popular, grievous wounds is more prevalent than ever(especially with all the new items).
Deathfire touch synergy DOT-based champions like brand and swain definitely have synergy with deathfire touch but if that really is the problem then why not just solely nerf deathfire touch, or change it in a way that it doesn't give advantages to dot-based champions? Actually, if you really feel insistent to nerf Swain then I really don't know why you would do it through his Nevermove duration, since his torment(deathfire touch) is the main abuser of deathfire touch.
Lolking data If we look at the Lolking stats of swain:
As of nov 24, swain has: 53.18% win rate and a 3.33% popularity rate in gold. 52.69% win rate and a 2.93% popularity rate in plat. 47.88% win rate and a 2.83% popularity rate in diamond. Note that there is about 3% variance in winrate depending on the day. On nov 22 swain only had a measly 49.28% win rate, for example. This moderately sized variance can easily be explained due to the low sample size of swain players. With such an abysmal popularity rate I can only believe that the reason for swain's higher win rate is because the small handful of people that actually know how to play the champion inflate the win rate. While I am aware that Lolking stats are in no way definitive proof of the balance of a champion, I feel that we would have surely seen massively different data if Swain was truly unbalanced.
Proposed nerf/change I really don't feel like swain should be nerfed but if the dev team really is not satisfied with Swain then I have some proposed changes. I'm under the assumption that people are dissatisfied with Swain's trading potential via deathfire touch so I suggest toning down the base damage of E and increasing the scaling to make it feel less oppressive in laning phase. The only downside to this is that in a standard swain build you don't go heavy AP since you're forced to itemize into survivability to be a successful front liner. Alternatively, and ideally, just change the interaction of deathfire touch with DOT and feel out how it affects swain.
Links: http://www.lolking.net/champions/swain?region=all&map=sr&queue=1x1&league=platinum#statistics http://leagueoflegends.wikia.com/wiki/Swain