Promos = luck based progression

TheLegendaddy··47 votes·5,738 views

Does matchmaking pair you up with people your mmr? As a silver tier player I'm playing all gold II's and III's to get out of silver, yet my team will wander with no ward coverage. Then dc's before even 5min into game after dying one time in lane. all this seemed to happen as soon as i got into promo haha. Welp, gg riot. Elo should be what determines your rank, if im gonna play golds every game, shouldn't i be gold? just an obvious question idk

79 Comments

Ulquiorra9959 votes

In theory, as long as you have 50%+ win rate you should rise, at least slowly.

Problem with promos is that you are required to achieve a very high win rate in a short time. While promos are 2/3 wins for divisions and 3/5 for tiers, in reality it is 3/4 (4/6) wins, since you are required to win a game before promos and then win your promos.

So, to rise, you need a 75(66%) short-term winrate. If I could maintain that win rate consistently I'd be in LCS by now.

Legendari5 votes

This is what I've been saying for a long time... I'm not sure why Riot thinks it's such a good system. It is an arbitrary roadblock that keeps people from climbing in rank, even if they are winning more than 50% of their games. I was at a 54% winrate the first time I hit gold promos and got trolled all the way back down to Silver IV before I started winning games again.

Drogmyre4 votes

Put it another way: If any champion had a winrate that was even CLOSE to the winrate you need to get past a promo series, they'd be hotfixed.

Kurado2 votes

Put it another way: If any champion had a winrate that was even CLOSE to the winrate you need to lose a promo series, they'd be buffed.

(To lose promo series your winrate needs to be 33% or lower)

Drogmyre1 votes

Even Olaf and Eve during their time in dumpster tier weren't THAT bad.

Kurado3 votes

Exactly. So looking at short term winrates makes no sense. It's like argueing you need a 100% short term winrate to win a game. At least allow us to win a single game with a 51% winrate!

Kurado3 votes

This is a misrepresentation.

If you have a 50% winrate you have a 50% chance to win your best of 3 and best of 5. And of course you are required to win to enter your promos. That win is part of climbing so it doesn't count as a part of promo series. You need to climb to reach your promo series, any other way would be stupid and make promotions essentially worthless. Once you climbed to high enough MMR you can actually enter promos on a sub 50% winrate, because you'll gain more LP per win than per loss.

It makes no sense to look at a short-term winrate either. You could phrase it otherwise saying that for winning a best of 3 you need to have at least a 34% short term winrate. That doesn't sound too difficult right. Any outcome above 33% winrate will make you win your best of 3! If you look at the 'short term winrate' winning promos seems easy. In a best of 3 theres only 4 possibilities. 0% winrate, 33% winrate, 67% winrate, 100% winrate. With half of these possibilities you will promote.

GqSkrub1 votes

Perhaps they should let you choose your champion a la teambuilder if they are gonna put that much weight on a few games.

TheLegendaddy6 votes

it makes sense, but it still doesn't really make sense to play ppl divisions ahead of you to advance. If i were in gold playing golds, with 50/50 influence i have no problem with that challenge of getting better to impact a game more, but to be silver going against high golds and occasional platinums, seems silly. especially in a promo where every game not everyone is in a promo, so the effort isn't balanced within the team, could be just another game for some

SonyUSA2 votes

Here is something you aren't grasping about the system. Let's say the match-maker pit you against people your own rank. Do you know how many points you would get per win? Probably 4-6 points. How many would you lose? 10-15. You would never advance if the system matched you against your 'ranking' versus your MMR. When I play ranked it places me against people in high plat and low diamond, but when I win, I get 25-26 points, which let's me climb ranked VERY quickly.

Tilomentry3 votes

Except that's exactly how the system works when you get to your appropriate rank for your skill level. Promo matches test your ability to play against people of your skill level but the people of your skill level may not be the people you are ranked with.

Example:

You are in your promos for Silver 2 to get to Silver 1 You are matched with Gold 3 players You now have to prove your abilities against Gold 3 players to get to Silver 1

Problem with promos is that you are required to achieve a very high win rate in a short time. While promos are 2/3 wins for divisions and 3/5 for tiers, in reality it is 3/4 (4/6) wins, since you are required to win a game before promos and then win your promos.

This makes the problem even worse.

A better system of promo matches might be if you have to win X number of points in X number of games (with a minimum of 1 point per game) that way you could take into account that difference of MMR versus rank

SonyUSA1 votes

You're forgetting that you are getting the same MMR folks on your team as well, so the point that you are ranked against higher folks is irrelevant, those folks are also your skill level, according to your MMR, so ranking can be ignored.

TheLegendaddy1 votes

the problem with that is, let's say your friend silver I (1450mmr) gets to gold, and you silver I (1670mmr) are struggling for weeks possibly months at a time, (unless you live on league). It makes no sense to test you at a silver level if you're gold from the start.

Z Statistic1 votes

the problem with that is, let's say your friend silver I (1450mmr) gets to gold, and you silver I (1670mmr) are struggling for weeks possibly months at a time, (unless you live on league). It makes no sense to test you at a silver level if you're gold from the start.

I'm not sure you understand how much of a difference 100 mmr is in terms of expected outcome. A difference in 100 mmr is basically a 3:1 odds of winning.

Kurado1 votes

That's only true if you play 1 game every week at most. Else you are just blaming your lack of success on the MMR system rather than yourself losing games.

Tilomentry1 votes

No that's the entire point. If your MMR group is higher than your rank division, then why do your division's promos reward you the same for winning a game as someone who has lower MMR than you?

example:

Why do both a gold MMR player and a silver MMR player get "1 point" for winning a match in promos when the gold player gets 30LP and the silver player gets 15LP in non promo matches.

Kurado3 votes

You now have to prove your abilities against Gold 3 players to get to Silver 1

If you are that far above your division the system will make you skip promo series and skip whole divisions. And remember that gold 3 might have Gold V MMR because he's on a loss streak and can be in duoq with a Silver V MMR player. The confirmative bias in these type of complaints is highly prevalent

Problem with promos is that you are required to achieve a very high win rate in a short time. While promos are 2/3 wins for divisions and 3/5 for tiers, in reality it is 3/4 (4/6) wins, since you are required to win a game before promos and then win your promos.

If you have a 50% winrate you have a 50% chance to win your best of 3 and best of 5. And of course you are required to win to enter your promos. That win is part of Climbing. You need to climb to reach your promo series, any other way would be stupid and make promotions essentially worthless. Once you climbed to high enough MMR you can actually enter promos on a sub 50% winrate, because you'll gain more LP per win than per loss.

Tilomentry1 votes

If you are that far above your division the system will make you skip promo series and skip whole divisions. And remember that gold 3 might have Gold V MMR because he's on a loss streak and can be in duoq with a Silver V MMR player. The confirmative bias in these type of complaints is highly prevalent

First of all I believe the conditions for skipping is you have to be a whole division about your rank (e.g. plat 5 MMR but gold 5 ranking)

And i don't see how the second part has anything to do with my argument. If you are gold 3 MMR you are playing with other gold 3 MMR players for your silver 1 promos

If you have a 50% winrate you have a 50% chance to win your best of 3 and best of 5. And of course you are required to win to enter your promos. That win is part of Climbing. You need to climb to reach your promo series, any other way would be stupid and make promotions essentially worthless. Once you climbed to high enough MMR you can actually enter promos on a sub 50% winrate, because you'll gain more LP per win than per loss.

This part takes my words completely out of context. I made no complaints about LP gains, only promos. And as argued by someone else in this thread, you have to win 3/4 or 4/6 games in order to beat promos. You essentially need to be on a win streak.

Kurado1 votes

First of all I believe the conditions for skipping is you have to be a whole division about your rank (e.g. plat 5 MMR but gold 5 ranking)

Not sure on this but I do think it's lower.

And i don't see how the second part has anything to do with my argument. If you are gold 3 MMR you are playing with other gold 3 MMR players for your silver 1 promos

Ah okay then never mind about that.

This part takes my words completely out of context. I made no complaints about LP gains, only promos. And as argued by someone else in this thread, you have to win 3/4 or 4/6 games in order to beat promos. You essentially need to be on a win streak.

I did not completely take your words out of context. As you said you need to achieve a very high winrate in a short term. I'm just pointing out that that's easy to get. You only need a 2 game winstreak to enter your promo series and win them.

Example: Start at LP 99: LWLWLWLWLWWLWLW.

As you can see if you keep alternating wins and losses on a 50% winrate the first time you get an extra win you promote. (Assuming that your MMR is high enough so that you recieve more LP per win and less per loss)

Z Statistic1 votes

As you can see if you keep alternating wins and losses on a 50% winrate the first time you get an extra win you promote. (Assuming that your MMR is high enough so that you recieve more LP per win and less per loss)

Except that's not how randomness works. At all.

wwwwlllwlwllwlwlllww is just as random as wwwlwlllllllwwlwwlll

Kurado1 votes

?

TheLegendaddy1 votes

yup, the biggest problem with promos. it really is a test based on chance. I've hardly ever seen alternating win losses, it's always in 3's and 4's

Kurado1 votes

I'm not saying you need alternating win/losses. Having streaks of 3s and 4s doesn't make promos more difficult. What I'm just showing with this pattern is if you win more you will promote.

Tilomentry1 votes

Yeah but you are still spending like 10+ games in your promos because you constantly jump right back into one as soon as you lost the previous one. I mean if you are constantly in promos then it should be clear as day that you deserve to advance. Current promos impede your advancement unless you are lucky early on or until you've gone through enough promos to get a large enough size for statistics to kick in.

TheLegendaddy1 votes

yeah this game is like a coinflip unless your mmr and skill as an individual player is that of a diamond plat to carry consistently every game

Kurado1 votes

If the outcome of your game is like a coinflip (50% chance to win) you are at the MMR you should be. That just means the system rated you perfectly. If you have gold skill you will reach gold.

Tilomentry1 votes

Win rate is a statistical chance of success and any statistic over a small sample size is extremely poor. The results will always be luck. Take flipping a coin for instance. We all know that flipping a coin is 50/50 chance. However if you do only 10 flips you could get something like 7 heads and 3 tails. This does not accurately show the chances of getting heads vs tails. It isn't until you flip a coin an extremely large amount of times, that the statistic starts to over take luck and shows that 50% of the time you will get heads and 50% of the time you will get tails.

Like with the coin, it will take a large amount of promo matches before you start accurately win half the time. But then there is still the crux of the problem. Winning in promo matches just proves your ability against your MMR group, not your ranking.

You may have the MMR of a gold 4 but succeeding in promo matches for silver 1 will only reward you with a silver 1 ranking.

Jenova Synthesis6 votes

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

The MMR system is very complicated, mostly due to the fact that it is technically a "hidden number." So far what I've discovered (both through hopeful guessing and some higher-level friends) is as follows:

Your MMR is basically a second rank that depicts how much LP you get/lose per win or loss. If you're doing well as an individual player, but you consistently get stuck with bad teams, your MMR will still increase but of course your actual rank won't. The point of MMR is to basically balance the good and bad players without relying on your wins and losses alone. If you have the MMR (or for this example, the "second rank") worthy of a high gold player, but you're in Silver IV, then you're going to be playing against and with players of similar MMR, as well as you gaining more League Points for wins and losing less for losses.

From what I've gathered, it's just evening out your actual rank with your "Second rank." If you have a lower Second Rank than your Actual Rank (ex. Silver V, Gold II, Diamond IV), then you're going to lose more League Points for losing matches, while gaining less from winning (and vice-versa), and once those two ranks get evened out, then you're not going to progress very much, and once your Second Rank surpasses your Actual Rank, then you should start gaining more LP than losing for wins/losses...

I'm in Silver V, and I'm gaining about 28-35 League Points from winning a single match, and only losing about 10-18 LP for losing, due to the fact that my "Second Rank" is higher than my Actual Rank... So pretty much, do well individually in your games and eventually you'll start gaining more LP per win.

** Again, a lot of this is guessing and I could be 100% off, so please correct me if I'm wrong. **

Tilomentry3 votes

That's pretty much right. If your MMR is higher than your rank, LP gains will be high. If your MMR is lower than your rank, LP gains will be low.

Problem is promo matches completely ignore this relationship. Promos act on win rate over a incredibly small amount of games and because of the nature of match making (trying to make all games 50/50), promos have a tendency of being incredibly luck based.

They might say something about your skill level after several attempts but I don't really know what that could be.

Jenova Synthesis1 votes

I figured it was about the same for Promo matches as it was for regular.. How does it decide Promos differently?

Pinker 101 votes

You can climb normal matches with a 50% win rate, albeit slowly. That's 1w/1l For promos, you need a W(qualify) W/W/L to graduate a division, or a W(qualify)W/W/W/L/L

Neither of which accurately reflects the rest of the ranked system.

Onegarion1 votes

Honestly I think Promos are overall bad with the system in place. Riot is basing advancing on a hidden MMR that affects LP gain regardless of W/L, but promos are completely about W/L and not about MMR. Last season it was really easy to get through a promo because you could tank your MMR to play against people who were lower and just stomp them gaining a ton of LP overall with little affect to your MMR. This would make it easy to get through a promo. The more personal case is when you succeed in a promo and instantly lose the 5 games in a row (happened a ton in silver and last season) without being demoted. Losing the 6th demotes you and then you turn to playing with "bad" players and instantly advance through your promo again. I did this as well many times

I think the overall system is good, but the promo system is like a monkey wrench. It goes against the way the rest of the system works, but right now its an evil that we must deal with and work around.

Tilomentry1 votes

Promo matches don't care about the difference between MMR and rank. If you are in silver with gold MMR, you will be matched with gold MMR players. Normally you would gain something like 30LP per win and -5LP per loss. But in Promos you gain exactly 1 win and 1 loss and you need 2/3 (3/5) wins to win promos (plus the 1 win to get into promos)

Now take a Silver MMR player in silver. Normally he would get 17LP per win and -15LP per loss. But in promos he gains exactly 1 win and 1 loss.

Promos treat all players equally regardless of their MMR while LP takes into consideration the difference between rank and MMR.

Rinky Dinky3 votes

Even if that is right, that is still an awful system. If I'm silver 1, and the game knows I deserve to be in Gold 2, then why should I have to suffer? That makes it waaaaaaaay harder to actually complete your promo's as you are playing with more skilled players, and is also just demoralizing.

"Welp lets match this guy up with gold 3's but make him stay in silver, even though he has proven that he should be placed in gold. Genius."

And I have heard of games where someone will go into promo's, and the entire enemy team will be 2-3 tiers ahead of him, while his entire team will be 2-3 tiers under him. Something just doesnt add up, and promo's seem to be the only place this happens.

TheLegendaddy4 votes

That's the point im trying to make, the placement system is severely faulty. especially if you look at your elo and it's well above the average for silver and you keep gettin bad luck in whatever case with dc's or ppl just not caring as much cuz they're not in promos. Climbing the ladder and improving is great, but unless you're a diamond/platinum player that can climb easily due to their influence on the game, a person that is CAPABLE of hitting gold or mid gold might get the shaft and be stuck in silver all season. That is a major problem.

67chrome5 votes

Promos = luck based progression

Ranked is about ranking your skill level **against **the skill of everyone else.

It's not about rewarding players that simply put in time. Ranked isn't your typical RPG where grinding for a few hours will turn difficult challenges into mediocre and easily winnable battles.


If you get to a point where you have so little influence over the game it's 50/50 and almost exclusively based on luck, you're specifically at your skill level and, for the purposes of what ranked is and means, you shouldn't advance.

Your only real option to advance is get better so you have a lot more influence on being a deciding factor.

Ruloh2 votes

I think that this is both reasonable, yet blindly oblivious to the matter at hand here. We're talking about fairness and equality compared to just going for the throat all the way up the ladder every single time. I'm currently bronze 1 in my promos, but it's come to my attention I have a consistent match up against silver 4 and higher. Whether I'm in my promos or not, this can be very frustrating because while you can say it's great to be CAPABLE of playing with betters, it's something else entirely to have to consistently fight them and lose because you actually -aren't- on their level.

Bronze players should fight bronze players. Silver against silvers, so on and so forth. Because until you're actually better than your current division as a whole, you shouldn't have to fight against people in higher tiers, who may or may not be CAPABLE of being part of higher tiers than where they are because, like me and everyone else, they get trolled into lower tiers. So thank you for the compliment, but no. I want to fight against people in my own division and beat them first, before biting more than I can chew only to get trolled further into eternal oblivion.

If LP is a problem, then you'd think RIOT would give a set amount for wins and losses depending on the division you're currently in. 20 for wins, 10 for losses in Bronze, 18 for wins and 9 for Silvers, etc. Something like that if all theory comes down to is winning more than half your games. It's depressing to think winning games comes down to complete luck on what kind of teammates you get stacked on top of what division you're facing. If I'm playing silvers, I should be in silver. That's what Matchmaking is telling me anyway.

EDIT: http://matchhistory.na.leagueoflegends.com/en/#match-details/NA1/1615477165/203325248 Look at this crap. So what if it was a win? The Draven I supported kept rushing into harassment range for Cait and Sona early on. Our mid -AP- Shaco should've lost to enemy Veigar, but he turned out to be the best out of everyone and carried. The Darius on my team was playing in a competitive scene "for fun" instead of having any actual drive for success. The Lee Sin jungling on our side was helpful, but bossy. This is what every player ends up going through in ranked, and for the sake of argument here, I'm inclined to agree with the description of this topic until reasonably talked into believing this BS is actually fair. Promos = luck based progression.

Legendari4 votes

I recently lost a promotional series where everyone in the game, except for my duo partner and me, was an unranked player in PLACEMENT matches. We had people in solo lanes building jungle items and all kinds of ridiculous nonsense. A smurf playing Akali on the other team got fed off all the noobs and wrecked us. It was game three of my promos to go up to Silver II.

My duo partner had just won his promos the game before that (we were winning a lot of games), but I hit 99 LP the game he went into promos (a result of losing 3 LP to dodge a troll earlier in the evening). The extra game I had to play to get 1 LP ended up not only costing me promos, but also set me on a path to drop a division after a bad streak of afks, DCs, and trolls that followed, whereas many of those bad games were absorbed at 0LP for my duo partner.

I've since got back on my feet and have climbed two divisions in about two days worth of games, but this is a perfect example of how the crappy ranked system can screw over good players and keep them from climbing. I've won 75% of my last 20 games (90% when I get the roles I main) and avg a 5.5 KDA and I'm still trying to grind my way out of a league that people can place into after 10 games... it's disgusting.

Diljic2 votes

I recently lost a promotional series where everyone in the game, except for my duo partner and me, was an unranked player in PLACEMENT matches. We had people in solo lanes building jungle items and all kinds of ridiculous nonsense. A smurf playing Akali on the other team got fed off all the noobs and wrecked us. It was game three of my promos to go up to Silver II.

My duo partner had just won his promos the game before that (we were winning a lot of games), but I hit 99 LP the game he went into promos (a result of losing 3 LP to dodge a troll earlier in the evening). The extra game I had to play to get 1 LP ended up not only costing me promos, but also set me on a path to drop a division after a bad streak of afks, DCs, and trolls that followed, whereas many of those bad games were absorbed at 0LP for my duo partner.

I've since got back on my feet and have climbed two divisions in about two days worth of games, but this is a perfect example of how the crappy ranked system can screw over good players and keep them from climbing. I've won 75% of my last 20 games (90% when I get the roles I main) and avg a 5.5 KDA and I'm still trying to grind my way out of a league that people can place into after 10 games... it's disgusting.

Mid Silver is not at all unlikely a place to run into people who are in placements as that is around the MMR that they start at and they will gain/lose/or maintain from there. If you are having to grind your way out of there it means that earlier in the season you placed lower.

Salidfingers4 votes

Everyone should start as bronze 5, This will end the debate of luck

Boswick3 votes

The promo series were a dumb idea from the get go. It basically means all your other games don't matter except for the 5 game streak you need for a promo.

Feathermane3 votes

You should really stop checking your opponents' tiers. They are purely cosmetic anyway in terms of matchmaking.

Freljordan3 votes

As a player who is currently experiencing the same issue, I think Riot should put a cap on how far away in division a player who is matched with/against you can be. For example, If I am silver 1, there is no way I should be matched with anyone higher than gold 1 for sure, and really I probably shouldn't get matched with people even lower than that. This will do two big things:

1. It will make it easier for good players who deserve to climb do just that. By putting a cap in of say 3 divisions, I wont have to fight Gold 2's every game If I'm in Silver 1 and I deserve to be getting Gold, instead they would all be around Gold 3 or 4, and I should have an easier time climbing.

#2. Bad players who have through luck, paying someone to climb for them, or otherwise have made it to a higher rank will no longer be facing people of significantly lower elo. Even if someone is a bad Platinum V, there is still a big intimidation factor there when they are playing against someone who is Silver 1 (And yes this does happen! It has happened to me personally). This means that the plat v will play with people closer in elo, around gold 3 or 2 and will simply continue to lose until they are placed more closely with people their skill level

Please upvote if you think this is a good idea!

Tilomentry1 votes

The division skipping mechanic was implemented to do just this. If your MMR is gold 1 but your rank is silver 1, then you will skip up to gold 4 or 3 (presumably)

I don't know the specific numbers on it (i thought it was a whole rank difference) but if essentially does what you suggest. Inversely, if your MMR is severely below your rank (gold 5 rank silver 5 MMR) you will drop but the difference has to be pretty sever to drop ranks.

TyrantCelestia2 votes

Riot MMR system is so bad its been like this for a long time!

Konidias2 votes

Not only do you need to win a game to get to promos, you have to win enough games to win promos, then you have to win enough games after to not get quickly demoted again.

You could win promos and then get an unlucky string of games and you're instantly demoted. (lose first game at 0 LP, then dodge a troll champ select for -3 LP, then lose a game to an AFK... hey look, you're demoted!)

doviende1 votes

If promos are based on luck, then how did this happen? http://on.fb.me/1tPjze5 "Just got master´s on my smurf with a score of 68-5, i didnt lose a single game where i got jungle!" -- Svenskeren.

Even with only a 50% winrate, it's highly likely that you'll pass promo within 3 tries.

TheLegendaddy1 votes

this thread is meant for players that are capable of gold+ but may never make it there due to faulty system, not a master tier player that has no problem with climb or has the time rofl, but congrats, you tooted your own horn. humility ftw.

Onegarion2 votes

this thread is meant for players that are capable of gold+ but may never make it there due to faulty system, not a master tier player that has no problem with climb or has the time rofl, but congrats, you tooted your own horn. humility ftw.

Can you prove you deserve it? Some people are capable, but it doesn't mean they deserve it. I'm capable of wing a CEO, but it doesn't mean I deserve to be it now. 2 different quantities.

You describe potential as being what should be and not what it is, potential. Just because you fail out doesn't mean that the system is gaming you. I've made it into gold earlier in the season and its because I was more than just capable, but that I actually proved it. Did you every think maybe you are just high silver material atm?

Tilomentry1 votes
  1. Because that's climbing and climbing is skill based and no one has argued against it. The argument is that promos impede climbing unnecessarily and that the logic behind them is flawed

  2. His smurf's MMR probably didn't accurately reflect his skill because it had so few games behind it. He effectively pub-stomped inferior players most of his way back up. I bet those losses didn't even happen till he got to at least diamond.

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