On AD Burst Assassins.

So I've run into Zed and Talon snowballing in a number of games, as in that there seems to be little that can be done in lane to counter them till mid game if you are using most traditional mid lane mages, and I wondered what was going on here. Rather than just QQ about the whole thing, I decided to look into the math to see what was happening. Go math. Ultimately this does not mean they win games automatically, both of their win rates drop off significantly in longer games and neither of them has a win rate of "auto win", but it does signal that the counter-play potential in a certain phase of the game may be off.

It seems that, in pug games where organization isn't top notch, one of three things is happening: Either the items they depend on cost too little for what they do, the numbers on their abilities are too high, or they are too easy to get themselves rolling early game from non-kill sources. In order to look at this logically, we must find a way to compare different characters with different kits so some baseline must be established. For this I'm going to look at characters who deal the majority of their damage in 2 seconds or less, have the extreme mobility needed to initiate under tower and escape at will, and also look at the numbers on the items that currently seem to be giving them all the highest win rates. The next paragraph explains why I picked those two requirements for "similar champions". The significance of using the top win rate items for comparison is due to the fact that those using these items obviously know more than me about what works and what doesn't and I'm not going to pretend I know better than the experts. Simply put, looking at what works tells us a lot about what a champion is capable of and needs to succeed. After that we will look at what tools these characters have to get themselves rolling (apart from assassination potential, and the lane bully ability it affords): particularly farming, poking, pushing, sustain, and gank escape tools. The last paragraph will examine conclusions and attempt to wrap everything up.

In order to accurately compare different characters the first thing to understand what needs to be compared. Both Talon and Zed are melee, but have some of the highest base movement speeds in the game (350 and 345, respectively, out of base movement speeds ranging from 325-355) and have ranged jump(s) that out range any normal auto-attacks and most abilities (Talon: Cutthroat=700 range; Zed: Death Mark= 625 Range, or Living shadow-> Death Mark=700+625=1325 range) and both have abilities to exit combat immediately after their combo (Talon: Shadow assault move speed, Zed: Living Shadow/Death Mark reactivation): therefore only champions with similar personal mobility that does not depend on the opponents actions will be examined. Champions as Viegar or Brand who cannot ensure that their entire kit hits the way that melee champions can when they are instantly on their target nor do they have the mobility to slip away as successfully will not be compared, because of the evasion counter-play that is present. Other champions with conditional mobility will also not be compared, such as Lee Sin or Yasuo who must hit a skill shot to initiate their mobility. Furthermore these examined champions do everything to assassinate their target in a full combo in about 1.5 second's time (talon: Noxian Diplomacy->Cutthroat jump-> Rake-> auto attack for Noxian Diplomacy proc-> Shadow Assault escape and eventual or triggered proc; Zed: Living Shadow creation-> Death Mark jump-> Razor Shuriken-> Shadow Slash-> auto attack for passive proc-> Living shadow Switch, eventual Death Mark proc), making many counters ineffective (including hiding under tower), therefore any character who has to expose themselves to danger for longer than 2 seconds for their combo will not be examined. This includes all auto-attack based champions, non-burst champions, etc.

In the end only 3 champions made the cut: Ahari, Akali, and LeBlanc. Depending on play style and skill rotation others might be examined, such as a Kennen who decided not to stick around for his entire ulti, but these three will be what I will be using. For ease of calculation I also did not use champions with attributes that are particularly difficult to calculate, such as Kassadin with his Mana scaling on his Riftwalk. Other champions of note that did not make the cut were Vi (too long attack rotation and no escape), Diana (too long attack rotation and skillshot required to have an escape), and Rengar (too long attack rotation, auto-attacker). Fizz was also close and could easily have been included, but too much of his potential damage was based on sticking around and auto attacking which would have pushed him into the "too long attack rotation" category and the calculations on cost/benefit for extra auto-attacks was not something I wanted to deal with (30-36ap ratio per attack plus dot was too significant to ignore, after-all).

Respectively for Ahari, Akali, LeBlanc, Talon, and Zed in their mid-lane role these 5 champions first major items are Morello, Gunblade, Ludens, Yumio's, and Yumio's . Second was Luden's, Hourglass, Rabadon's, Black Cleaver, and BoRK. All had boots for one of their first three items. In terms of bonus AD/AP/penetration/cost for the first item the numbers are: 0/80/0/2550, 40/80/0/3400, 0/100/0/3200, 65/0/20/3200, and 65/0/20/3200. Adding in the second item brings us to a total of: 0/180/0/5750, 40/180/0/6900, 0/297/0/7000 120/0/20+5%-30%/6700, 90/0/20/6600. Boots cost 1100 for all but Talon, who uses swiftness, and grants the mages 15Mpen for a final total of: 0/180/15/6850, 40/180/15/8000, 0/297/15/8100 120/0/20+5%-30%/7500, 90/0/20/7700. Additionally Ludens, Hextech, and BoRK add damage through unique passives/actives for an extra respective 100+10%ap, 150+40%ap, 10% target max health+6% current hp on hit. Many of these items have other stats, such as Life-steal and Mana Regen which will become important when examining the character's potential in non-assassination contexts, but do not add to their 2 second burst.

From the above numbers we can see that the average cost for items between the other champs and the two we are examining (not including boots) are 6550 compared to 6650, so the base cost isn't really lower and the unique active/passives of the AP items are actually better. The AD items give a bit more penetration, but not so much as to make them imbalanced compared to what other champions have access to. While the items obviously help, it is not item scaling that is giving them their early game power.

So then lets look at their abilities, both at Lv6 and Lv10 to see if their early game power is due to the ability's base numbers. Unless otherwise noted we will assume that everything hits. Ahari 279%ap+444, one spirit rush to escape Akali 230%ap+60%ad+400 +passive +1 AA, 2 shadow dances hit, one to escape. LeBlanc 300%ap+515 no secondary Ethereal Chains proc Talon 412%ad+440, +1auto at +13% power Zed ~456%ad +380 +1AA at +30% power +13% enemy hp. So at lv6, especially if you account for the extra AA and any AD built, they are well ahead of the curve even after remembering the lower value of AD ratios. That first item gives 65 AD, plus the auto attack deals at least 60 by itself. The average ap for one item is 90, compared to the AD of 65; a difference of about 75% ad to AP, but the extra AD ratios are higher at around 65% ap back to AD. This means they are getting about 10% more damage out of their items than the AP characters are at LV6. The additional Armor Penetration then more than balances out the AP item's passives, since the passives stack additively to the ability damage while the penetration (that the AD champions have while the AP champions do not) stacks through multiplying the damage. Lets look at everyone at lv10: Ahari 279%ap+624, one spirit rush to escape Akali 230%ap+60%ad+540 +passive +1 AA, 2 shadow dances hit, one to escape. LeBlanc 310%ap+695 no secondary Ethereal Chains proc Talon 412%ad+638, +1auto at +13% power Zed ~456%ad +613 +1AA at +30% power +13% enemy hp. At lv 10 the AP characters still don't catch up in base ratios or in AD ratios, but the different item selections show that the ratios more valuable to the AP characters than for the AD assassins. Even so, the difference is such that, with the exception of LeBlanc who rushes Rabadon's, the AD champions are still not behind (and may even be ahead) when penetration and item unique passives are taken into account. And that isn't counting aspects of the champions or items that don't show up during an assassination.

Despite the fact that their items may not be particularly more powerful, the characters can use them slightly more effectively in an assassination, but how much of this actually translates over into the rest of the game and how much is that power deserved due to the fact that they are Melee? Specifically I am asking what about farming, poking, pushing, sustain, and gank escape tools; those things that allow characters to get to the point where they can attack.

As for Farming Ahari and LeBlanc both have ranged abilities and ranged attacks, with the abilities being AoE and given leveling priority, so they are good. Zed is energy with a long rang pass through ability with leveling priority and an AoE ability that can hit most of the wave. He also has the option to use his shadow for multi-hits of his abilities or to force his opponent to back off, so he should be fine despite the increased difficulty of farming. Talon must watch his mana, but his leveling priority skill also hits entire waves and his in-your-face poke potential is extremely high. His mana costs are also extremely low, especially compared to the others above. His farming might not be perfect, but he can still do it. Poor Akali, despite using energy, has no ranged AoE abilities and prioritizes an ability that really is not suited for farming. All that said, you can shut down Akali by denying farm but not so much for Talon or Zed, but them getting ahead isn't due to their spectacular farming abilities either.

Poking is where Talon and Zed really shine. Their Melee status may make AA pokes difficult, but their jumps and the ability to continue attacking after using their cool-downs is not to be underestimated. Furthermore their above-average movement speed lets them walk away or walk into a battle without their opponent being able to stop them without ability use. The ability for others to hit them as they walk away is a major disadvantage, but their slows ensure that the enemies cannot follow. By Lv5 Talon can poke for almost over 160 damage instantly before AD ratios while farming, or he can all in for twice that damage before counting in AD ratios or extra auto attacks. Zed has the option of poking at such range that avoiding it requires being outside XP range. Let me say that again: he can be in the middle of his wave and still poke at such a long range that staying outside of it requires being outside of XP range, and that isn't his only poke combo. His energy status also means that he will never run out of abilities. Zed also has the option to safely attack someone who is well behind their tower with no repercussions. Ahari's abilities allow her to poke and stop the enemy poke efficiently, Charming and fox-firing anyone who tries an all-in and using her Orb to poke straight through the lane. Her poke completely counters Talon, but Zed can still deal with it. Leblanc's poke is on a high CD with high mana costs, or is barely more powerful than an AA if she uses her other abilities without AP. Both Talon and Zed can easily outdo her and should eventually push her out of lane. Akali, pre lv-6... She has her shroud and an ability that doesn't do enough without its secondary proc... lets try not to embarrass the ninja too much and just move on...

Pushing, again, can be done by everyone in the group other than Akali... Talon actually takes first here, as his ability is a better size and shape to hit large waves and his ability’s AD ratio is MUCH higher (Ahari 70ap, Talon 120ad). Ahari, with her long range orb and low cool-down takes second. But the AD nature of Talon and Zed means that auto attacking to push is powerful, and both have aoe abilities to help with it. Akali's dual nature, being both AD and AP along with her Crescent Slash on low cool-down seems to help with this (when she isn't being bullied out of the lane) and actually gives her better tools than Leblanc has. For once Akali isn't last.

Sustain, both in terms of HP and ability resources. Ahari is the only one of the five with any heal in her kit, and she has low mana costs on her main ability she uses to do everything, but both Talon and Zed build it into their items. Meanwhile Talon's mana costs are very low while Zed uses energy. Akali is also energy, so she will be able to use an ability within the next few seconds, but her ability costs are too high for her to spam stuff useful for powerful poke or safe wave clear early game (pre lv6). LeBlanc's main skills just cost too much, is it any surprise that she is recommended to take the Meditation mastery? The three melee characters also have higher defensive abilities, allowing them to take poke slightly more effectively, though not enough that they can simply ignore basic auto-attacks.

And finally Anti-gank potential. Akali, Talon, and Zed often simply have the option of outrunning a gank with their superior move speed, which Ahari and LeBlanc cannot do. Zed and LeBlanc have the best escape ability, which amounts to an extra flash. LeBlanc's ability has more juke potential and lower CD (due to levels) but is more likely to be on cool-down due to its other use as the main source of damage. Meanwhile Zed's ability is less likely to cause issue if he uses it haphazardly and costs a lot less. Third is Akali, who's shroud gives MS, a slow, and stealth for a good amount of time. Ahari has a good anti-initiation in her Charm, who's stun and forced movement can turn a gank into a kill. The worst of the group is Talon, who has a couple slows pre lv6. Post Lv6 everyone gets excellent escape tools... except poor Akali... (is there any question by now of why her win rate is so low?)

In conclusion it now makes sense why Zed is #1 pick and #3 ban. Or why Talon's win rate drops off so sharply once his ulti is no longer an untraceable escape. Zed's kit has everything you could possibly need, short of hard CC, plus it has invulnerability. Talon is simply an overly effective lane bully with exceptional clear but a less than effective late-game escape. Could they use some rebalancing? Talon: maybe a bit, or possibly not depending on other factors. Item and mastery changes could be all that is needed. Zed: hell yes. There are literally no /major/ weaknesses for counter-play in his kit other than his being melee, but even that is impossible to use in lane due to his many ranged abilities and unlimited resource.

PS: Numbers were taken either from the LoL wiki or Champion.gg so if the numbers are off than blame them, not me. :p