I don't understand how someone could find themselves in the second scenario of more keys than chests given how the key drop rate works.
People can get pretty much a guaranteed 4 chests per month (even if they're bad themselves and have trouble getting S ranks, they could get via premades...and even bad players can get an S occasionally in stompy matches). Meanwhile, the key fragment drop rate diminishes with every fragment you get, and is apparently capped at 12 per month so only the most hardcore will be able to open all their chests in a given month, and many people would only get enough fragments for 2 or 3 chests rather than 4.
Adding a way to turn fragments into chests feels like it'd just be a trap to set people further behind on their chests.