WHY is new BE system is good on paper but not so good in reality. (Math inside)

Hello, I would like to share my notes with community and maybe give some feedback to Riots. Yes, it's BE again, but this post is not emotional response to inevitable changes, but rather cold calculations. I made a table to make it more ease and clear for everyone to perceive. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13HL0sRxqPHTVcE-cGSYHNR4ursTeHzCrXqDMK6Pupdc/edit?usp=sharing

Here I will compare 4 types of player:

• Regina, the Regular (2 games a day)
• Trevor, the Typical (4 games a day)
• Harold, the Hardcore (8 games a day)
• Ivan, the Insane (24 games a day)

Given conditions:

• They play games average of 27 min and resting for 10 min between games.
• Win ratio is 50% as standard.
• For calculations I will use data for 51-75 levels (because since 51lvl experience for level will stop growing constantly and there is "staircase cycle" start).
• New BE system actually doesn't reward you for playing games directly, instead you get reward for reaching level mark where you can get a capsule with BE worth loot. So player gains would be divided to: minimum reward (810BE), average (it used to be 910BE according to Riot Mortdog but as they raised minimum reward that number should be ~920BE now), and maximum (1240BE). Also each 10 games loot is doubled for milestone reward.
• FWOTD grants 400XP (for 7.23 patch)
• They all start at 50 level with 0BE and their goal is to reach 75 level and buy Jinx asap.
• Result is compared with old IP system.

Following chart is representing my maths https://i.imgur.com/Byju3pY.png[/img]

What do we see here? Trevor is the typical player who spend 2,5 hours every day in his favourite game, he will reach 75 level for 73 days and with average luck he will be able to buy Jinx in 16 days with 64 games played (32 win - 32 loss). If he is super lucky, he will buy her in 14 days (54 games) and if he is super unlucky - 20 days (77 games). And if he owns Jinx shard it will be roughly 20% faster. While old IP system were not so dependent on player's luck, Trevor would need to play for 16 days (59 games) to get enough currency for purchase.

Now we can do some conclusions:

1. FOWTD is a huge part of new system. It's a bless for less dedicated players and absolute bane for powerfarmers.
2. New BE system is RNG based, 5 people in same premade will get different reward depending on their luck. If compared to old IP system, yes, you can get even more, but you also can get less if not lucky enough. Since capsule drop rates seem to be skewed to less worthy shards to compensate their lower % amount (450BE champs are only 10% of total), you will get unlucky very often.
3. Champion shards can screw you up. While shards are represented to players as an equivalent of game currency and also a bonus for content purchase, they can't execute both roles simultaneously. In this example Jinx shard reduces amount of games required to buy a champion by ~20%, but only if we assume that Jinx is sole champion we need to buy. Lets assume you main ADC role and get, for example, Jhin and Kalista shards while farming for Jinx. These champions are also very popular and expensive, so you would prefer to save shards for future discount instead of disenchanting them for BE worth amount. This pushes us way behind at our goal, now we need at least 2 more capsules and have to farm extra 4-8 days. Thus, while giving you huge boost in long perspective, Champion shards steal your resources and leave no other options to obtain BE ingame.

At season 7 shards used to be an alternative to IP, secondary way to obtain champions via crafting system and it was fine. Now these two systems merged and secondary is stated as main for some reason. Probly 90% of the time you will be rewarded with Shards to disenchant them into currency, but as I said, these Shards are also discount so they have extra value and by disenchanting you cut its worth. You can buy Jinx from example but you will have to pay more for Jhin and Kalista next time. This phantom profit can be very tricky and misleading, and can bring some players into frustration when they have to chose. Also it makes entire system even more RNG and feels even less rewarding.

I would say new BE-Shards system is very interesting but also very unbalanced. It favours more new players who has no clear goals in game. I can see a newbie disenchanting not interesting (to him) champions like Garen, Fiddle, GP, Volibear and saves his BE to upgrade some randomly dropped Heimer: "Wow, this champion looks fun, I'd love to play it!". But as he progress he would want to obtain not random but particular champion pool for his role, say, Darius, Fiora, Maokay, Gnar... Which is gonna be harder, as system encourages random purchase, but punishes purposeful farm.

P.S. My grammar is bad, sorry.