Let's talk Illaoi Win-Rate

NOVAKza·Dec 9, 2015·3 votes·2,943 views

Champion.gg - Illaoi Top Stats, Builds, Runes, Masteries and Counters

This is really interesting to me. Not saying that the champion is broken nor underpowered, just find this interesting:

When playing for the first time, Illaoi has a 42% win rate.
When playing 5-15 games, her win rate is around 50%.
When playing 15-50 games, her win rate is over 75%, higher than any other champion in the game. (all values obtained from diamond+ ranked games on 5.23)

Thoughts on this?

16 Comments

GoosetardDec 9, 20153 votes

I'm not sure there's enough games for those stats to be really accurate/meaningful... that graph with the winrates is really, really eye popping. But, the category with 15-50 games played only accounts for 0.44% of the games played. In the categories above she's exactly in line with her (overall low) average winrate. Given the smaller number of Diamond+ games compared to other games, and the very small fraction of those games containing Illaoi, and the very, very small fraction of THOSE games that fit into the 15-50 games played category, I think it's extremely likely you're seeing a statistical fluke, especially given that, if her scaling with experience was that broken, you'd see the trend continue.

ParoeDec 9, 20152 votes

Shes new. Dont do knee-jerk nerfs; give it a month or so before you start hitting her.

But.

Her E needs to be nerfed. Damage amplification is a nono and guranteed procs is a nono.

VexfulDec 9, 20152 votes

Her damage is high but we have plenty of high damage top lane champs already ( Rumble Jax etc) and she has a cool fight style with her tentacles. Her freaken E is the issue. You have to dodge her harass while you fight the curse to break it. ON TOP OF THAT, she can pull your soul out from under your tower, hurt it, and send you cursed fearing for your life. In fact, she can use her E WHILE you are still cursed. It's got a good hitbox size and range on it so something needs to give. If you get hit by the tentacles with her damage added though, you better have good sustain or durability or you will be pushed out of lane hard.

SquidblimpDec 9, 20151 votes

I think Illaoi is very strong when people don't know what to do against her. She can absolutely stomp her lane harder than almost any other champion I've ever seen if she gets ahead. However, as people learn to back off when she ults, and to kill her tentacles, and to hide behind minions so she can't pull you, or contest your spirit when she pulls you, then her winrate will drop a bit.

ChargeItDownMidDec 9, 20153 votes

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NemeBroDec 9, 20152 votes

{quoted}

Has this theory of "people will learn to play against x" ever held true? There hasn't been a single champion released in the past 3 years who's winrate has ever fallen after "people learn to play against x." In fact, every champion's winrate has consistently increased with time as players understand how to use them more. Whatever people learn to do against a new champion has never outpaced whatever people learn to do as a new champion.

I'm pretty sure at this point that it is safe to say a new champion will only do better as time passes. Kindred's stats only got better with time, tahm's got better, ekko's got better, bard's got beter, rek'sai got better, kalista got better, azir got better, gnar got better, braum got better, velkoz got better, yasuo got better, lucian got better. There is really no reason to continue to perpetuate the myth that champions winrates will drop as "people learn to play against x" because it never actually happens when you look at the data. Champions only do better and better until they are either nerfed or reach a plateau.

I fully expect Illaoi's overall win rate to rise with time.

I also expect her 15-50 games win rate to drop.

Kindred players had something absurd like a 90% win rate on her release after something like that many games or less. This hasn't been the case since.

ChargeItDownMidDec 9, 20151 votes

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NemeBroDec 9, 20151 votes

{quoted}

However, it wouldn't be a true drop, the 75% would simply shift over to the 50-125 category (and probably rise to close to 80 at that point) because the players have more experience.

Oh yeah? Even when the percentage of players in the 50-125 category is greater than the puny, statistically insignificant amount in the 15-50?

ChargeItDownMidDec 9, 20151 votes

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NemeBroDec 9, 20151 votes

{quoted}

How fast do you expect the 50-125 category to grow? The 50-125 catagory isn't all that big for champions not named lee sin or thresh. Also, by the time the 50-125 catagory does grow, the 80% will just shift over to 125+

Then why didn't Kindred players with 125+ games have a 90% win rate?

ChargeItDownMidDec 9, 20151 votes

[deleted]

NemeBroDec 9, 20151 votes

{quoted}

Why would they? It isn't like her earlier categories were legitimately all that high.

Yes, they were. On her first week of release Kindred's 5-15 or 15-50 games category had win rates of about 90% jungle or adc.

AsphodelNextDec 9, 20151 votes

4.When playing 50+ games, her win rate is back down to 42%

That means nobody has played her for more than 50 games (or whoever does plays very badly for having that much experience with her.)

SasogwaDec 10, 20151 votes

{quoted}

4.When playing 50+ games, her win rate is back down to 42%

That means nobody has played her for more than 50 games (or whoever does plays very badly for having that much experience with her.)

I have another theory. When you keep winning, your MMR rises. So basically you're automatically matched with better opponents. If we suppose Illaoi is overpowered when you mastered the basics, you'll grow in MMR until you reach opponents that are far better than you, and then you will lose and the winrate will stabilize, the fact you're bad compensating the fact you play an overpowered champion.

But that's just an hypothesis of course. And it should be more around 55-60 %, since it takes in account the games you won to grow your MMR. So yeah, the low winrate for 50-150 games is still weird.

KruchoDec 10, 20151 votes

nah ur just pointing out lucky cases or something, illaoi is garbage whether you play her correctly or not, her winrate should never even come close to 50%. Maybe she has a chance to be "decent" against really bad players that can't survive her gimmick but thats it. She cant win lane, gets easily ganked, cant roam and is useless to her team at all points of the game due to having no range no cc and being easy to kite.