My Normals Winrate is 30%

WildBoyJake·Feb 16, 2020·14 votes·8,945 views

Why is it like this? Will my mmr ever get lowered enough to where its 50%. Am i really in the bottom .0001% of people in this game. I don't know. Just sad that I'm this terrible.

11 Comments

MagicFlyingLlamaFeb 16, 20209 votes

Your profile says you are lv24, which is completely new. You dont really have a meaningful MMR yet.

Silent GravityFeb 16, 20209 votes

Of your most recent 10 games, 30% winrate. 30 games, 37% 48 games, 40% 68 games, 43% 88 games, 43%

In the short term, it's incredibly expected to have streaks of wins and losses. This is a property of probabilities.

Play more games to increase the accuracy of your MMR. (also have fun, and learn) Don't pay attention to small sample sizes.

Nea104Feb 16, 20201 votes

[{quoted}](name=Silent Gravity,realm=NA,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=4e1J3Ugr,comment-id=0002,timestamp=2020-02-16T05:12:53.658+0000)

In the short term, it's incredibly expected to have streaks of wins and losses. This is a property of probabilities.

False, when streaks are so common AND so suspiciously well distributed.

Plus, there's no statistical explanation about a fair system giving more stomps than close games. It's basically a reverse-gaussian distirbution, which cannot exist under standard conditions. Ie., their matchmaking is flawed, or rigged :)

Silent GravityFeb 17, 20202 votes

First, ask yourself what streak lengths you would expect to see in a set of 20 games that were perfectly balanced.

Then, watch this short video.

See if your expectations align with reality.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tP-Ipsat90c&

Nea104Feb 17, 20201 votes

[{quoted}](name=Silent Gravity,realm=NA,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=4e1J3Ugr,comment-id=000200000000,timestamp=2020-02-17T03:52:55.354+0000)

First, ask yourself what streak lengths you would expect to see in a set of 20 games that were perfectly balanced.

Then, watch this short video.

See if your expectations align with reality.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tP-Ipsat90c&

Thank you, but I'm a master's graduate with the highest grade in that kind of stuff, so more than a YT video I can repeat you this: there's no statistical explanation about a fair system giving more stomps than close games. It's basically a reverse-gaussian distirbution, which cannot exist under standard conditions. Ie., their matchmaking is flawed, or rigged :)

Bye bye!

edit: thank you to the smart guy who downvoted this for no reason: if you can't understand a topic, just ignore it or study more, don't act like a --- just because you've no clue about what's going on ;)

Silent GravityFeb 18, 20202 votes

Well, it's been a while since I studied randomness, but since you called the streaks suspiciously well distributed, I assume that you've at least done a run test on your record and are willing to share the results.

I'm not certain what you mean. Where in the process is this non-standard distribution occurring?

Toss a single coin. Oh my goodness, what a stomp! Tails totally dominated. Heads didn't have a chance! That must mean that the result wasn't random!

KFCeytronFeb 16, 20205 votes

Same for me in ARURF. I'm not sure why matchmaking struggles so much to put together reasonable, fun games.

JustA kleoFeb 16, 20202 votes

my winrate in normals arams and arurfs is VERY close to 50% and its not fun at all. in 90% of the cases its a total stomp on either side.

MagicFlyingLlamaFeb 16, 20202 votes

FGMs use a different MMR from normal blinds or normal draft, for some reason. Often if you play much of the others, you get matched with tons of really horrible players in FGMs by comparison.

WarmasFeb 16, 20201 votes

Normals don't have a ranked system so it doesn't pinpoint anything about your place among players. If you play ranked and you are iron4 then you will be there but I gurantee you won't because you have to be basically AFK to get to iron4

The23rdGamerFeb 17, 20202 votes

{quoted}

Normals don't have a ranked system so it doesn't pinpoint anything about your place among players.

Not entirely correct: normals games lack the LP progression system of ranked queues, but it still utilizes MMR (Match Making Rating) to create matches with other players.

MMR is gamemode specific, so your Ranked MMR is independent of your Normal, ARAM, ARURF, etc. MMRs.