Round 1:
Gravity(4) vs TSM(5).
Prediction: Gravity edges out TSM 3-1.
Explanation: Gravity has looked shaky throughout the last few weeks of the split. They've made some questionable decisions and their macro-play has looked less sharp. However, TSM has been struggling almost the entire split. The meta certainly is not in their favor right now, as Santorin prefers tanky junglers; Sated Devourer is not his style. Personally, I think Gravity 100% win game 1 because they always manage to get a new strategy in champ select, throwing TSM off. TSM will probably adapt to this in game 2, banning out certain champions, but GV's overall strategy will remain the same; they'll just use different champions to accomplish this objective. In game 3, TSM pulls out a win due to sheer mechanical strength from Bjergsen and Lustboy, setting up nice engages and cleaning up GV. In game 4, however, TSM return to inconsistency and GV manage to pull out a win.
TIP(3) vs Dignitas(6):
Prediction: TIP sweep Dig 3-0
Explanation: Dig is certainly not a bad team. They have improved massively from the spring split. However, they still do hold certain key weaknesses, especially in the jungle as Helios has a shallow champ pool. While Gamsu is a great top laner, TIP arguably has the best top laner in NA in Impact, neutralizing the threat from Gamsu. Rush outclasses Helios, and I expect Rush to get his team early leads with his aggressive play. Gate vs Shiphtur is the only problematic matchup for TIP, as Gate is fairly new (although to me he looks almost exactly like XWX pls don't call me racist). However, from what we've seen of Gate in week 9, he looks like he's able to hold his own (even though he makes some macro-positioning mistakes). Bot lane is fairly even between the two teams, but Rush and Impact have a bigger presence in bot lane than Helios/Gamsu do. Adrian and Apollo are also very solid and consistent and know their roles on the team, while CoreJJ and Kiwikid look awesome one minute and confused the next. TIP should win this series easily 3-0, with a scary game or two that keeps them on their toes.
Round 2:
TL(1) vs GV(4)
Prediction: TL wins 3-1.
Explanation: TL is probably the best mechanical team in the NA LCS now that XWX is gone (though TIP with Gate gives them a run for their money). TL also have a bye week in which they're able to analyze GV's strategies and prepare for them. GV do not have such a luxury. TL will probably win game 1 through a good pick/ban phase and win handily. GV will probably be on red side on game 2 (their preferred side) and counter pick, pull out some surprising strategies, and use Move's presence in lanes to win game 2. In response to this, TL will probably flex their mechanical muscle in game 3, try to go for standard lanes, and win through leads built up in the early game. Game 4 will probably be a fun game to watch as i predict it will be back and forth but TL will probably win a fight near baron/dragon (one of their strengths) and snowball to a win after that.
CLG(2) vs TIP(3):
Prediction: TIP wins 3-2.
Explanation: CLG has always been a mystery to me. I have never really trusted them to win, as their playstyle is sort of one-dimensional (get Zion and/or DL hard carry champions, get them ahead in the early game, use that to advantage). In standard lanes, CLG won't be able to do that as Impact will neutralize Zion and Apollo/Adrian will at least not lose lane to DL/Aphro. CLG also makes some questionable decisions, so I expect TIP to take advantage of that to win. Rush also outclasses Xmithie (similar to the Rush Helios matchup) and Rush will probably be able to make plays on the map, getting his lanes ahead. In game 1, CLG will probably see what TIP did and prepare for that, winning game 1. TIP responds using their chaotic playstyle to win game 2. CLG wins game 3 by exploting Gate and getting ahead, snowballing to a 30 min win. TIP responds by putting Impact on a hard carry (Irelia/Gnar), getting great initiations and getting picks/crushing 5v5s. In game 5, CLG makes a stupid mistake somewhere and TIP capitalizes, leading to a TIP series win.
Final:
TL(1) vs TIP(3)
Prediction: TIP wins 3-2
Explanation: I'm probably going to get a lot of flack for this. TIP winning NA LCS without XWX? Blasphemy! However, TIP have all the tools to win against TL. TL will probably take game 1 through Fenix's lane bullying (leading to him getting ahead and snowballing). TIP will probably win games 2 and 3 due to Rush starving IWD/counterganking mid, leading to Gate getting ahead. Due to the fact that Impact will probably never fall behind unless IWD constantly ganks his lane (and by that i mean like 7 times in first 15 min), Impact will probably be both tanky enough to engage while doing massive cc and dmg to TL. TL will probably win game 4 as piglet gets massively fed and wrecks TIP's base. Game 5 will hopefully be a 70 min game where neither TIP or TL get a massive lead until a game-deciding fight happens, which TIP win through a beautiful engage from Rush and Impact.
3rd place:
CLG(2) vs GV(4)
Prediction: GV wins 3-2
Explanation: CLG has always been a team that just tilts really hard when it starts losing. CLG win the first two games, causing them to go 2-0, but GV pulls out a surprise win in game 3 through another Keane off-meta pick. In game 4, GV will win due to macro outplays and better decision making. In game 5, CLG completely tilts and keels over, leading to an easy GV win.
Overall:
- TIP (auto goes to Worlds)
- TL (50 + 90 points = 140) (goes to Worlds)
- GV (10 +70 = 80)
- CLG(10+40= 50)
- TSM(90+20=110)
- Dignitas(10)
7.C9 (70)
Gauntlet
Dig vs CLG
winner vs C9
winner vs GV
winner vs TSM
I'm actually kind of sad that TSM has 2 Bo5 chances to go to Worlds. GV/CLG rn deserve it more than they do.