First of all, you can't stress it too much. It's not your future job decision, it's not you buying a house, it's not debating an abortion. It's a decision that should be fun and you need to feel good deciding to do it and not feel like "oh did I make the right call or should I have saved for something better".
Now, having said that, Passes can be the best value for money deals in League, because you can make the most out of them by playing a lot. So, if you have played more than you usually are going to play, just buy the pass and get all the 2200 tokens + the gemstones+ whatever else is in the bundle. If you have played your normal amount, I would suggest you wait for the next pass (since there isn't anything specific you have your eyes on from this event) and buy that so you have more time to make even more tokens.
And again, don't overthink it, you should feel like you are getting yourself a present, and it's nice to do once in a while.
P.S. If you are looking to get very specific skins the pass is not a great deal. If you are open to getting many skins that might not be your first choice pass is great. For example, since I play a lot of aram, passes are the best for me because I need skins for all champions so I am bound to hit something I am excited about.
