Do or Die for Cloud 9 - Part 2
With another week in the books, it makes sense to take a look back and see what we've learned from this past weekend's activities. C9 is starting to tighten their play and despite the game score, did a fantastic job of controlling the matches they won. The control/team style macro play is starting to return to form, and they reaped the benefits of that focus this weekend. I think one of the biggest questions ultimately is whether they can maintain that mindset game in and out. If so, they have the potential to be a scary team come playoffs. It is way too early to board that hype train.
While we had a surprise loss of TSM to Dignitas 2-0, the path that would be required for TSM to drop a seed would likely include losing to P1, CLG, and either Team Envy or RetirementFlyQuest. Now I'm not saying it is not possible, but I'm not putting any money on that conclusion.
So focusing on the rest of the playoff field, the relevant discussion is how the remaining 3 teams will jockey for position, with Dignitas and Team Envy at 8-6 along with C9. Cloud 9's remaining schedule consists of the following.
vs. Team Liquid
vs. RetirementFlyQuest
vs. Team Envy
vs. Echo Fox
Combined Record: 20 - 36
If Cloud 9 wins out, Cloud 9 secures the #4 seed. Dignitas has both IMT and CLG on their remaining schedule, so money has it that they lose at least one of those games. Team Envy has CLG, TSM, IMT, and Cloud 9 as their four remaining games. I would be surprised if they won more than one of the first three games, which would give Cloud 9 some cushion if C9 lost a second time to Team Envy. This means that unless Team Envy plays out of their expected range, Cloud 9 can go 3-1, losing to Envy, potentially 2-2 if DIG loses to both IMT and CLG, and maintain that #4 seed.
Expected final standing/pairing for Cloud 9: 4th place, probably playing against Team Dignitas in the Quarterfinal round, which with a win likely puts them against Immortals in the semifinal round. If this happens, even if they LOSE that game, they will earn 40 Championship points for Worlds, which IF TSM WINS Summer Split will lock them as the NA #2 seed, avoiding a regional playoff for Worlds 2017. Ew, this C9 fan may have to root for a TSM win . . . the prospect of that just made me choke a bit.
Team consistency starts with solidifying Top lane. My personal view was that Impact needs to be the permanent second chair, supporting Ray and perhaps coaching Ray in how to play early game more successfully, but Ray needs to be "the guy" in top lane. However, Coach Reapered took a different approach, favoring Impact to start consistently the entire weekend. I really, really hope the call has been made and that Ray from here on through the end of the year is on the bench. It freed up Contractz up to truly jungle, which allowed other advantages to form in objective control and team fights.
Sneaky needs to take a break from Solo Queue. He has these pangs where his positioning reminds me more of Imaqtpie than of C9 Sneaky in top form. This is not a talent thing - it's just a focus thing, but that focus thing is causing the team to get turned on fights it has no other reason to lose. I think the bad habits stem from the late night jamming games - play PUBG on the stream or something - but put the solo queue down because the bad habits are showing.
As always, I appreciate the feedback and comments on here. Please check out my Gold-tier Support stream www.twitch.tv/TurnDaBeatAround for a positive, energetic, and fun time together on the Rift!