Key fragment drop bug

Plasmi·4/9/2016, 12:19:44 AM·7 votes·1,907 views

The equation: Plasmi plays 8 games a day for 8 days. Assuming he wins only half of those games, and assuming he has already gotten 1 key fragment this month (meaning there is a 40% chance to get a key fragment with each victory), what are the chances that Plasmi will not get a key fragment?

Today marks the 8th day of April. 8 days have passed since key fragment drops theoretically were reset. On the first day of April, I got a key fragment. But in all the games after, and the games since then to now, I have not gotten any key fragments. The chances of me not getting a key with 4 wins in one day are 12.96%. Pretty low. But the chances of me not getting a key with 4 wins each day for 8 days... are about 1/100,000,000.

So. In conclusion, I'm pretty sure there's a bug with key fragment drops - they aren't dropping.

That, or I'm terrible at math.

7 Comments

krypp4204/9/2016, 4:30:47 PM4 votes

If an admin sees this post please read carefully. Key fragments are an incentive to play the game and to ensure the player has motivation to win. Apparently, key fragments have become an issue, and not just for some. The fact that people are earning chests (3 key fragments) every time they earn an S-Rank or better, and people are only earning 1 key fragment every random win (which seems like <5% of the wins will drop a key). There is a flaw in the algorithm used to produce key fragments or there is an issue with the staff at riot. There is absolutely 0 reason for this. With all the intelligent people working at riot there should be at least 1 person to notice this issue (considering its been an issue plastered all over the boards) who can actually do something about it (talk to someone who can fix it or do it themselves). Its apparent that the Riot staff is either negligent to their customers concerns or oblivious on how to ensure the customers satisfaction (i think we all know which one is true). Please have the decency to make people who actually enjoy this game to continue to do so. Considering that majority of the people who play League of Legends have bought something from the store it would be considerate to show us that our money is not only going to our own satisfaction but also the satisfaction of the LoL community.

Thank You

Dehitay4/9/2016, 12:30:42 AM1 votes

where did you get 40% from?

II 3ntar II4/9/2016, 2:40:11 AM1 votes

i have the same problem key fragments stoped droping @ all since the draven update before it it was normal 1 each 3rd or 5th win but now it doesnt even drop a single 1

PoisnFang4/9/2016, 6:33:46 AM1 votes

I am having the exact same problem and so are my friends, not a single key fragment in over a week now...

BurningKarma4/9/2016, 10:23:55 AM1 votes

{quoted}

Hey all,

Just want to help clarify some things about key drop rates:

Key drop rates are NOT linear and only wins have a chance of dropping a key. So you will earn key fragments much faster in your earlier wins than you will in your later wins. Or said another way, each incremental key fragment drop is harder than the last (on average... there is variance). This resets on a monthly basis for each player individually. The goal is to create a nice ebb and flow.

Grade does NOT impact key drop chance.

Premades DO increase drop chance.

Chests earned has no impact on key drop chance.

There is variance and randomness (with limits). It's unlikely that what happened to your friend will happen to you.

Hope that helps clarify :)

Leaving this red post here, an answer to a similar question, hope it helps. I got my last fragment on 04/05 & i total had 9 fragments since the hexteck crafting started. I DID NOT do any math to prove it but it feels like it's working as described above