a rusty theory

hello every one, I'm new to the game but have been a big fan of the lore for a long time. I have theory regarding the threat of Vladimir to Swain's ambition.

Swain has shown himself to be charismatic and gets results in all he does, even when it looks detrimental at first. we also know that he is playing a game of intrigue with Leblanc with the coups and assassination attempts and has kept his cool. so what does ol'Vlad bring?

a direct approach. Vlad has centuries of experience (rough estimate, considering he would disappear after a time) and as his color story showed, very high charisma and finally a cult of personality. Vlad is basically an outside context problem for Swain, as the black rose is not known for doing something so...loud. with the influence Vlad has, he very well may prove more than a mere thorn to Swain (and Vlad too has been playing the great game with Leblanc)

that's all I have, and I will admit, considering how reckless Vlad is to appear at a time history has not forgotten him, Swain could end his possible success in an instant if he finds enough proof. I hope this theory is interesting enough, but please spot all the problems in my theory, since I dont want to sound like an idiot for the rest of this