Data and analysis on Mystery Skins and Mystery Chests

Hey, folks, I wrote an article yesterday for Polygon about Mystery Skins and Mystery Chests, and I thought I'd share it here, since there is a fair amount of discussion and questions about these purchases on this forum.

The article goes into this stuff at some depth and includes some math, but here are some highlights:

• There are more 975 RP skins than anything else, so whether you buy a 490 RP Mystery Skin or a 790 RP Mystery Chest, the most likely result is that you will get a 975 RP skin.

• However, there are more than 250 total 520 RP and 750 RP skins, so buying the 790 RP chests, which cannot contain skins cheaper than 975 RP, roughly doubles your chance of getting a 1350 RP or higher skin.

• The expected value of a 490 RP skin is 918, and the expected value of a 790 RP chest is 1138 RP. That means you pay .53 RP for every expected RP worth of full price value for Mystery Skins, and .69 RP for every RP you expect to get back from Mystery Chests.

• However, 520 RP skins are a lot worse than 975 RP skins, and it may be worth paying extra not to get any of them.

The article also includes my results from purchasing 30 chests, costing a total of $158 US. I got 2 legendaries, 10 1350 RP skins, and 18 975 RP skins.