So I have never posted here before, but seeing this got my jimmies
all rustled up thinking about doing some math. The question being:
What would be the estimated sales and return for the charities?
Because we have data from last year I figured it all could be extrapolated out from there.
So let us take a look at some numbers.
So last year the sales were focused around Championship Zed skin and Championship ward skin.
Both had some alternative ways of purchasing I.E. bundles or crates, but to save on the math I decided to do straight value posted by riot.
(RP to Money Calculations have been done using best value RP purchase in CAD then converted at current rates to USD there are most likely some inaccuracies)
Championship Zed: 975 RP/$7.22 USD
Championship Ward: 640 RP /$4.74 USD
This gives us an idea of the money on what players might have spent, give or take a bit.
Now to the fun part Prize Pool of 2016
Total of Prize pool was $5,070,000 USD
From What I found Riot funded originally $2,130,000 USD
That means that we the players raised a total of $2,940,000 USD
Cool right, but wait that was 25% of the sales
so we truly bought a total value in skins equal to $11,760,000 USD!
If using the rough estimations above and assuming that every player who bought the Zed and the ward at $11.96 USD
($7.22+$4.74)
That would mean only 850,836 players purchased championship skins.
( $11,760,000%$11.96)
I think that is a crazy number.
But why you ask?
Well, this number is tiny if we are thinking of how many players there are.
So some quick side math but just as important.
Curious about what the player numbers are, I did some searching.
What I found was that info really is kinda few and far between.
Within the last couple years, there are very few solid numbers from riot games.
What I did find was in an interview in 2016 that says there are 100 million monthly players. combined with what their website listing at
100+ million monthly players.
That give us some good current data, But not enough.
So if we pull some historical data from their other posts in the past, we can get a good idea of how many players there are now.
So grabbing the data and making a graph (heck yes!) and using that we can get a good guess.
This is my estimation for 2016:
-
Over 100 million players battle it out in League every month
-
More than 45.5 million people play at least one game of League every day
-
Over 12 million players simultaneously play League during daily peak
hours.
So with that in mind using the number of players that we estimated that are purchasing skins during 2016 fundraiser (850,836)
and using the let say the daily player numbers (45.5 million)
we get 1.9% of daily players bought the championship skins.
Pretty cool ehh
Now back to the main event estimating what we will be the amount raised for charity and the prize pool for 2017 world championships.
Taking the data we have gathered to this point we are now equipped to get the answer we have been waiting for!
(RP to Money Calculations have been done using best value RP purchase in CAD then converted at current rates to USD there are most likely some inaccuracies)
Championship Ashe: 1350 RP/$9.99 USD
Estimated players for 2017:
- Over 118 million players battle it out in League every month
- More than 56 million people play at least one game of League every day
- Over 14 million players simultaneously play League during daily peak
hours.
So the final number are drum roll
1,064,000 Players making purchases
(1.9% of 56 Million daily players )
10,629,360 USD in total Sales
(1,064,000X$9.99)
2,657,340 USD in prize/charity
(25% of 10,629,360USD)
Now wait this is less than last year.....
Hrmm there are more players buying championship skins but the dollar value is less ($9.99 vs. $11.96)
But by my reckoning, this should be pretty close.
Some things that are not accounted for and probably throw my numbers off namely:
Riot Games calculations for 2016 purchase amount could be
different than my estimation.
Many of the numbers were pulled from my own
estimations so this could throw number off a good ways.
lowballed some number for a safer estimation.
The conversion rate in 2016 vs 2017 for CAD and USD
could be impacting my data a fair bit.
There could be different purchase rates Zed vs. Ashe skins.
some guesswork could be done with using pick rates.
(Zed at 12.1% and Ashe at 11.6%)
The biggest thing not accounted for is the charity factor
and how it will impact the numbers.
I don't know how, but some question that comes to mind are:
Will players purchase more championship Ashe skins for charity?
Will we beat the previous year's numbers cause of the charity?
Sorry for the long post
Thanks for reading through all this took some time but I had fun
and my jimmies are satisfied.
Have a good one and see you all in the summoner's rift!