I'm finally answering this question from TDeadFather:
I've done the math around the deffensive runes against physical damage (AD) taking the effective health as the variable of comparision and how armor works in LOL (link).
Given the options, having 1 slot for armor quint in all cases and swapping between scaling/flat HP/armor seals end up with 8 different combinations (just the ones that make sense to me):
Case 1 98 HP
Case 2 91,33@lvl HP
Case 3 9* 1 AR
Case 4 90,16@lvl AR
Case 5 58 HP +41 AR
Case 6 51,33@lvl HP+40,16@lvl AR
Case 7 51,33@lvl HP+41 AR
Case 8 58 HP + 4*0,16@lvl AR ---> From the guide
In this image, I've listed the effective health for each level of Lucian, for each case.
I've taken in consideration the base ratios and stats of him for the calculations.
Now, if I'm right, we can know the best runes for early, mid and late game. BUT each stage isn't more important from the other two, so we need a well balanced runes if that is the case, we have that compared with the base E. HP, as a mean for all the levels, this is the % of E. HP you gain each case:
Case 1 9,29%
Case 2 11,31%
Case 3 8,99%
Case 4 10,18%
Case 5 9,33%
Case 6 11,02%
Case 7 10,71%
Case 8 11,01%
So, case 2 would be the best one, in which you have 1 armor quint and 9 scaling HP seals.
Now, taking in account that the damage you could get from enemies latter in the game would increase enormously (as the damage you'd be doing alone ). With that in mind, you'd need a balanced runes, but with a slightly better early, in that case the runes from the guide are the way to go.
I don't know if my analysis is right, or my English so crappy that none understand me but if anyone have something to say, I'd like to read it.
TL;DR According the images and the %, is the 2nd case a better option than the 8th?
Thanks for your time!
-TDeadFather
The first thing I did was recreate your spreadsheet with a few slight differences. I included a "below average" shading in addition to your 1st 2nd and 3rd shadings and rounded every number to 2 decimal places.
Here's the result. Notice how the 8th case (the one recommended in the guide) is the only case with no below average entries.
That aside when we compare it to your original spreadsheet you can tell that your analysis was accurate in what it covers. Unfortunately, it fails to cover every detail. To be thorough we need to include 70 HP from your D-Blade and the 36 HP + 3% HPp (Health Point Percentage Increase) from masteries.
With starting items and masteries accounted for the spreadsheet looks like this. Truth be told, that doesn't really shake things up. Notice however that the 8th case is still the only case with 0 below average entries. It's not flat out better than the other cases, but it holds true to the balance that it was intended for.
Hopefully that answers your question. Thanks again for such a well thought out question. Sorry it took me so long to address it.
P.S.
There's actually a better way to calculate Effective Health than what is currently on the wiki.
The wiki gives you these formulas:
In short the formula is:
Physical Effective Health = Max Health × (1 + (Armor / 100))
Magical Effective Health = Max Health × (1 + (Magic Resist / 100))
Effective Health = Max Health / (1 - Total % Damage Reduction)
While accurate, it's a bit impractical to have a separate formula for damage reduction. So I derived this one:
HP × (100 + R) / (100 × DM)
Where R is the resistance (either AR or MR) and DM is the damage modifier which is all direct damage modifications added multiplicatively.