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TFT probability

I am Bluey·12/30/2019, 11:04:16 PM·1 votes·1,201 views

So I thought it would be cool to do my math IA on TFT since it would be killing two birds with one stone, playing games and doing homework. The gist of it will be " The probability of 3 staring a white tier champion " or something like that. I've recently returned to league only to find out that TFT was release, and at best, I have a basic understanding of how it works. As you all know, the % of getting a white tier champion in the first round is 100% and as the game progresses, the % slowly goes down. For all I know, the round after clearing Krugs ( round 9 i believe?), the % for a white tier is 50 %, and then it drops to 35% for the next. From my experience, I've been lucky to 3 star my nasus or vayne ( Light team ftw) by rerolling right after krugs. But if multiple people are also aiming for the same team as you then how does the percentage work? I was wondering if there is a maximum pool of champions on the board? For example, u need 9 copies of vayne to get a 3 star her, but there is a limit of 15 vayne per game, and if one player is holding onto 7 copies of vayne and you have the other 8, then no matter how many times you reroll you won't be able to 3 star her. If there is a RNG cheat sheet that would be a god send [sg-zephyr]

4 Comments

Kei14312/31/2019, 3:06:04 AM2 votes

First think about your assumptions so you can keep your math simple and consistent;

  • How are you assuming people buying their units?
  • Are people buying the same units as you? If so how many are buying them?
  • Are they rolling for it?
  • Are they leveling up?
  • Are they keeping units on their bench?
  • Do other players have any champs you want in their shop?
  • Are you just doing your calculations on one instance? Or is it a rolling calculation?
  • are you holding any other T1s?

Once you have defined your restrictions, then we can talk math.

Also, you'll need to know about the rolling chart and how many champs are available within each tier (see the number after the tier for how many champs are availabe).

If you are just doing 1 instance of calculation, the easiest way is to take notes (or screenshot/video) of everyone's board and do your calculations based on that.

Once you have your assumptions, you just need to calculate the probability of you getting the champ you want.

So for example, if we assume:

  • you have a 2☆ Vayne (need 6 more to 3☆)
  • everyone is level 4
  • there are 90 T1s on the board (including your bench and other people's shop)
  • there are no T2 or T3 units in the game
  • no one is rolling
  • no one has any Vaynes.
  • you are not buying anything other than vayne.

Then your probability to roll vayne would be:

P(T1) and P(Is Vayne) x 5

Where P(T1) = (number of remaining T1 x roll chance) and not T2 and not T3

P(IsVayne) = percentage of Vaynes remaining and not any other champion.

Remember to change the number of T1s and Vaynes remaining everytime you successfully roll a Vayne.

ThunderCraft12/31/2019, 12:40:09 AM1 votes

What i have noticed is TFT assign a seed or card set. So if you want to play berserks and you have assigned woodlands you are screwed.

Heroboy101/1/2020, 2:39:34 PM1 votes

Don’t re-rolls for Vayne if you don’t have at least 5 Vayne otherwise you have big chance to fall behind and lose.