100 Games of TFT

Number 1 Simp NA·Jul 14, 2019·8 votes·3,023 views

Just finished my 100th tft game (got first place with Void Assassins) and I have to say I don't think winning is as reliant on RNG as people say it is. I've recorded my placements on a sticky note and i've been fairly consistent in my results, with almost 50% of my games being in top 3. If RNG really decided games as much as people said it did, then i must have really good luck, or else my top 3 percentage would be closer to 35ish percent.

Here are my stats

1st-22 2nd-8 3rd-19 4th-10 5th-9 6th-11 7th-7 8th-14

Top 3- 49 Total- 100

21 Comments

True GarenJul 14, 20194 votes

Most people don't know how to play yet?

Your results aren't THAT different from what would be predicted. You made top 3 about half the time, and that's probably what would be expected given that it's the first time for a relatively high percentage of your opponents.

Lots of matches also have an afk...

Also, 100 matches may not be a large enough sample.

anjogrTestJul 17, 20191 votes

No, top 4 should be about half the time. Furthermore, the central limit theorem would apply if, as people are claiming, we only had to look at the RNG variables in the game (since all distributions here are finite, hence finite variance). So we could alpha test normality to get a sense of whether those claims had merit. The alpha test of a normal distribution about 4th/5th place with 22% of occurrences placing in 1st fails with any of the usual alpha values (10%, 5%, 1%) merely by inspection.

Furthermore, the very statement "people don't know how to play yet" contradicts the rest of your argument: if there is something to know, there is skill to be exercised, and the game is not just an RNG gamble of coin flips, which is the point of the OP.

True GarenJul 17, 20193 votes

Knowing the basic rules of the game, is not the same as "skill" or even strategy. I mean, that the game is so new, that a percentage of players simply stop playing after a few rounds because they are confused and don't know what is happenning. (And sometimes, it's weird to se that these guys actually finish 5th or so...)

Regardless of the reasons, a percentage of matches have players that abandon the game, or don't even start. (You know that you can currently farm tokens by just loading in - it generally takes more than 10m to wipe out, even with no input.) This would tend to push a winrate a bit above the straight percentage.

anjogrTestJul 14, 20192 votes

Thanks for posting this.

And, no, the sample is large enough that the deviance from a fully RNG run game is significant. Also, the notion that someone might not "know what hey're doing yet" contradicts the presupposition that the game is skill devoid, which is exactly what the poster is asserting.

People just need to learn that "skill" in this sort of game is interacting profitably with the RNG. Skill in LOL is more dynamic; for people who like that better, I can see why TFT is frustrating. But there are tons of people looking to exercise this sort of skill in a game (think Hearthstone), and TFT is Riot's way of introducing them to the LOL universe.

Devilreaper XIIIJul 16, 20192 votes

{quoted}

Thanks for posting this.

And, no, the sample is large enough that the deviance from a fully RNG run game is significant. Also, the notion that someone might not "know what hey're doing yet" contradicts the presupposition that the game is skill devoid, which is exactly what the poster is asserting.

People just need to learn that "skill" in this sort of game is interacting profitably with the RNG. Skill in LOL is more dynamic; for people who like that better, I can see why TFT is frustrating. But there are tons of people looking to exercise this sort of skill in a game (think Hearthstone), and TFT is Riot's way of introducing them to the LOL universe.

the data isn't complete yet, his/her data would have to be compared to others that played 100 games, and than a average would have to be made.

anjogrTestJul 16, 20191 votes

[{quoted}](name=Devilreaper XIII,realm=EUW,application-id=RaE1aOE7,discussion-id=MXcAH83p,comment-id=00010000,timestamp=2019-07-16T09:38:51.250+0000)

the data isn't complete yet, his/her data would have to be compared to others that played 100 games, and than a average would have to be made.

Testing a supposed distribution by assuming the distribution is correct then calculating the likelihood of finding a particular outlier is a generally recognized and indeed fundamental technique of statistics.

Devilreaper XIIIJul 16, 20192 votes

{quoted}

Testing a supposed distribution by assuming the distribution is correct then calculating the likelihood of finding a particular outlier is a generally recognized and indeed fundamental technique of statistics.

not if players affect it by picking from a limited pool, and either raising or lowering ones chance to win/lose, we are creatures of habit, he needs consistency to test it, 100 games with the same setup a 100 games with a different setup a 100 games by adapting, or comparing a 100 games with other players to find an average, and than determining if the factor for losing/winning are champions or items, and items are certainly random.

anjogrTestJul 17, 20191 votes

He's not bootstrapping the whole distribution, he's just threshold testing the sensibility of it. What is the level of your statistical education--how do you not know the difference between those two concepts? You are purporting to understand the subject, but the fact that you cannot see from the OP's data that the game outcome is extremely unlikely to follow a uniform or otherwise symmetric-about-middle-placement distribution (if we were testing normality, the alpha value would be shockingly small, for instance) suggests otherwise. It sounds to me like you are confusing some of the different methods that you learned in an introductory machine learning or applied programmatic statistics class with classical mathematical statistical hypothesis testing.

DARCKD00MJul 14, 20192 votes

hahahah with the high number of people who afk or surrender after krugs, idk if your test is legit!

maybe you did it on pbe? same issues+tons of bugs!

ty try again!

Number 1 Simp NAJul 16, 20192 votes

{quoted}

hahahah with the high number of people who afk or surrender after krugs, idk if your test is legit!

maybe you did it on pbe? same issues+tons of bugs!

ty try again!

I did this all on live servers, and i'm not sure about your experience but at most i have a leaver or someone who surrenders about once every 5ish of my games. Im also still playinng and keeping track of my stats so i am still trying! thanks for the encouragement!

hrooza dota Jul 16, 20191 votes

i barely see anyone at 0 after krugs, heck i only see them start dying after wolfs by 2+ fights and right now im seeing everyone alive during raptors sometimes

DARCKD00MJul 17, 20192 votes

they FF, SURRENDER, dont need to lose hp, can be at 100 hp and totally bullying everyone, if you want after krugs you can surrender, no need to be at 0 hp

hrooza dota Jul 17, 20191 votes

if they surrender this early they will be losing hard no matter if they had 100 or 1000000 hp they would be losing round after round because their comp wont be any stronger

DARCKD00MJul 17, 20191 votes

what comp? they dont even buy champs! what dont you understand?

hrooza dota Jul 17, 20191 votes

im saying if they leave they will di fast because of whatever bad comp they had left on board,

DARCKD00MJul 17, 20191 votes

their team vanishes when they FF have you played tft?

hrooza dota Jul 18, 20191 votes

ahh i played a lot, but i did not know that because NO BODY FFed in my games

i never seen a team vanish out side of dying

SwooshterJul 14, 20192 votes

He is not wrong. Yes, there is RNG. But part of the point of this game mode, is playing around it. You can't go in with a set squad and items in mind. You have to build around what comes at you. So yes, RNG will affect the game, but not nearly as much as you might think. The first few games I played I felt the same way, that it had way too much RNG, because I wasn't getting the items or champs I wanted. I rerolled away so much gold that could have been put to better use. My last game I was last place after a few rounds, but built around what was given. A few rounds later, I was able to win against the players in the top 3 spots and ended at around 5th place.