The Next Ultimate Skin

EDIT: PLEASE READ BEFORE CONTINUING

It seems as if these posts of mine continue to get traffic even long after they were made. I suspect some people Google the next Ultimate skin, and are sent here. If you are one of these people, just know that some info might be a bit dated. This thread is the first I made on this topic, and, as such, is very dated, so much so, that it doesn't even have our most recent Ultimate skin, that being Elementalist Lux. Almost all of the info in this thread is now irrelvant, and I highly suggest you read my most recent thread on this topic, which can be found here. Thanks for reading!

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Hello Everybody!

So, its been about a year and half since DJ Sona came out, thus, I think its about time we start speculating who could be the next recipient of the next Ultimate skin. However, this shouldn't be just some random shot in the dark. You can't vote for your favorite champion, because chances are, the champion you want isn't viable for a skin at all.

No, no, Riot does have a method to their madness, and to make a solid guess as to who might be the next recipient, we have to try and take a peek under the hood of Riot's operations.

Before I begin, I would like to state that I am not affiliated with Riot in anyway, except that I play League. Everything in this article is nothing but speculation, and I could be completely wrong on all of it. So, take everything you read with a grain of salt. But now that we have that out of the way....

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Skin Selections

First, We should take a look at how Riot selects champions for certain skins. Now, there are several variables that go into this, from how long the champ has gotten a skin, to if they fit the thematic well enough. There never really is a strict set of rules that Riot follows when choosing champs, except when a certain champ is up for a VGU (Like Sion, Yorick, etc.), for it just saves them a decent amount of work.

However, if you happen to look at release dates for skins, there is a slight pattern. I won't go into the details of the pattern, since this article will be long enough, but just trust me when I say that a champ is viable for a skin around 6 months after its most recent skin or release date. At the time of writing this, any champ that received a skin after release date is currently unviable for a new skin (yes, this does mean Sol could be viable for a new skin). However, do take note that this doesn't mean any champ who is selected for a certain skin will get a new skin soon after their chosen. It takes a REALLY long time to make a skin, from anywhere of a month or less, to well over a year or more.

But, we aren't here for any regular skins, NO, we're here for the Ultimates! So, how does Riot choose a champ for an ultimate? First you have to remember that Riot considers Ultimate skins as glorified Legendary skins, so, any rules that apply to Legendary skins, also apply to Ultimates. What are these rules? Well... I don't have a concrete list, and I don't think Riot really has one, though, I'm sure we can safely assume there are a few that they try their best to stick to. Here they are:

1 - Try not to give a champ more than one Legendary. Only one champion in the game has more than one Legendary, and that's . I think Riot may have realized that giving champs more than one Legendary shows favoritism, and if there are any rules Riot would stick too, they would stick to this one the most.

2 - Champs should be more than 3 years old. The new Dark Star Thresh skin gives us a pretty good glimpse into how old a champ should be before receiving a Legendary. Yes, you're thinking right....... is 3 years old (He'll be 4 in January). Now, one could easily argue that Thresh's popularity was quite a large factor into deciding this skin for him, and I would agree, its a good business move. But if that were the case, why was it that Thresh only got one skin prior to Dark Star (that being Blood Moon)? Wouldn't Riot want to release more skins for Thresh if they were releasing based on popularity? Just another facet proving Riot really doesn't want to show favoritism.

3 - The champ has ought to follow the 6 month rule. This rule is really more just of a guideline. If they have an awesome skin idea that they know will take forever and a day to make (like DJ Sona), they may say to themselves "Meh, it'll take long enough to make anyway."

These rules, when followed, at the time of writing only makes.............57 champs unviable for a legendary. Sure, that's a little less than half the roster, but, it still leaves us with far too large of a list to choose from. In order to find a far more suitable list, we need to add in at least 1 more rule. This rule only applies to the Ultimates, and has nothing to do with Legendary skins:

4 - Finish the team.

Now, what do I mean by this? Well, Riot likes to release skin lines that have the capability to host a full, real team in League. This means a Top, Jungler, Mid, ADC, and Support. The first batch of Pool Party skins follows this rule perfectly (Top-Renek; Jungle-Lee Sin; Mid-Ziggs; ADC-Graves; Support-Leona), and even the second batch does as well. If Riot does not release a full team of skins dedicated to a single theme, they will eventually finish it in the future. This is evident in the PROJECT skins, and the recently teased Star Guardian skins (though, due to the theme of the Star Guardians, its hard to see how Riot could flesh out a full team).

The Ultimate skins already have an ADC

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/kuYzHw7nkrE/maxresdefault.jpg

A jungler

http://orig07.deviantart.net/0cf9/f/2013/203/0/a/spirit_guard_udyr_walpaper_by_patweiss-d6eojel.jpg

and, most recently, a support

http://orig00.deviantart.net/c11e/f/2015/034/1/4/dj_sona_by_dwindlekin-d8gk451.png

Thus, due to Riot's history, we can safely assume that the next Ultimate skin will go to either a Top laner, or a Mid laner. When we consider the rules above, this leaves us with a list of champions only 33 champs long. These champs are:

- - - -

Now, mind you, this list changes over time. It could shrink considerably, or grow. Also, notice, I did add in champs that have recently gotten reworks (i.e. Yorick). A rework keeps a champion from getting a skin, but once the rework is released, they are immediately put back on the list (just look at Mecha Zero Sion). There are also champs I left out for that very reason (i.e. Galio and Urgot).

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The Prediction

Now, here comes the fun part. This is where we want to try and dive into the minds of the Artistic team over at Riot. Now, remember that the list above is nothing but speculation. Riot could easily throw us a curve ball, and give the next Ultimate skin. Its HIGHLY unlikely, but they can do it.

In order to make my prediction, I actually looked at how the past 3 Ultimates were designed.

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/kuYzHw7nkrE/maxresdefault.jpg

Pulsefire Ezreal could more than likely be considered a Legendary by Riot's current standards, however, the unique tech of it changing its model when you level up allows it to keep its Ultimate status. Riot has even stated that trying to update the skin to their current standards will be a nightmare, due to the amount of unique tech and coding this skin has (not to mention, its 4 different models in 1).

http://orig07.deviantart.net/0cf9/f/2013/203/0/a/spirit_guard_udyr_walpaper_by_patweiss-d6eojel.jpg

When Riot designs a champion, one of their main goals is clarity. They want both the player playing the champion, and playing against the champion, to be able to understand just what the hell is going on at any given time. Udyr does this by having a small cut out picture of an animal pop up above his head whenever he changes stances, not to mention his model shifts to the specific stance.

Well, with Spirit Guard Udyr, they took this clarity, and cranked it up past 11 until the knob broke off! Not only do you have FIVE different models (at the start of the game, he starts with an idle model), these models also transform into more dynamic models once you max level a particular stance. Oh, and lets not forget that the animals HAVE MODELS OF THEIR OWN!!! There is SO MUCH packed into this skin, it is more than well deserving of the Ultimate title, and more than likely Riot's baseline as to what the Ultimate skins should achieve.

http://orig00.deviantart.net/c11e/f/2015/034/1/4/dj_sona_by_dwindlekin-d8gk451.png

And lastly, but certainly not least, our most recent Ultimate skin. This was more of an experiment than anything for Riot. They incorporated the dynamic leveling of the past 2 skins (the music becomes more pronounced and dynamic the more you level certain abilities), and added in more than one model (essentially, this skin is 3 in 1). But what makes this skin obviously stand out is its music.

Never before have we seen something able to change the music of the game. Its always been the same, and we've listened to it enough that it has become nothing more than background noise, lost within the noise of battle. But DJ Sona changed that for the better. Its too bad we don't have other similar tools in game like DJ Sona, because, lets be honest, who still truthfully listens to the in game music? It's not that its bad, its just that its been around for so long.

Now, looking at these skins does give you a slight idea as to what kind of champs Riot looks at for an Ultimate skin.

Ezreal is the only outlier here, because he, as a champion, doesn't bring very much to the table. This, makes sense, however, since Pulsefire was the very first Ultimate skin. It was, more or less, an experiment that happened to work out.

Udyr, however, is very unique in that his stances make him unlike any other champion. I believe it was Phreak who once said that learning certain champs is easier than others due to how they perform. ADCs perform very similar to each other, essentially learning one means you've learned them all. A champ like Ryze, however, has no comparison, and thus, is more difficult to pick up. Udyr is a champ similar to Ryze in that there is no real comparison to him. Also, his stances laid a very good foundation for Riot to build off of.

Sona was chosen from a very simple fact about her: she is the only champ in the game directly associated with music (and no, Bard doesn't count). Making a DJ version of her was just easy! So easy, in fact, that they took the idea, and ran with it. The end result was being able to change the music in game.

So, the champ we want to look for is both unique, and has a potential idea that is easy enough for Riot to take off with. So, after all of this, I have compiled my top 5 champs for the next Ultimate skin ranging from least likely, to most.

5: Riven

http://i.imgur.com/DNg0s0Th.jpg

Riven is one of those champs that simply deserves at least a Legendary. Being one of the most popular champs ever created, and also being one of the most divisive, AND being very unique, making a Legendary, or even an Ultimate for Riven is a given at any time. Unfortunately, with the recent release of Arcade Riven, its highly unlikely she will be getting a legendary any time soon.

4: Karthus

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6-GfIenUFJA/VvXBLfUM70I/AAAAAAAA5PM/NwZSQD98NNsUlfY3of5gCy8aoHGreym-A/s1600/Karthus_Splash_0.jpg

You know, it's somewhat surprising Karthus doesn't already have a Legendary under his belt. Who knows, one is probably in the works as I write this. Anyway, being one of the oldest champs in the game, but also being one the most unique, there are several ways Riot could go with his theme. What exactly those are, I'm not entirely sure. Hell, they could make a Ruined King version of him (don't lie, you can see it too!).

3: Cassiopeia

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-qLa3rkLckXM/VAi-xfqkOEI/AAAAAAAAXjA/BzF9erB-LTk/s1600/Cassiopeia_Splash_0.jpg

Anyone else notice that Cass has been lacking in the skin department lately? Sure, its probably because her model and theme isn't the easiest to work off of or the number of reworks and tweaks she has gotten, but still, her most recent skin was the Jade Fang skin, which was released before Spirit Guard Udyr. But, besides needing a new skin in general, her theme may provide some interesting avenues Riot could go down, being League's poison mage and all (at least........trying to be).

2: Irelia

http://i.imgur.com/lMVYUuI.jpg

Another champ that has surprisingly stayed out of the skin spotlight for quite some time. Yeah, yeah, she recently got the Order of the Lotus skin, but before that, her most recent skin was Frostbuttblade Irelia, which came out before Pulsefire Ezreal. That is a REALLY long time to go without a new skin, and, Order of the Lotus, as pretty as it is, doesn't really act as a viable apology if you ask me.

But ooooohhhhhh ho ho, are there SOOOOO many things they could with Irelia. Her theme is simple enough that I am actually amazed she hasn't gotten more skins than she has, and the telekinetic blademaster thing is something they could take and run wtih.

1: Orianna

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-O9b7N-DXWIA/VAYVQr8StZI/AAAAAAAAEd4/TVJz96w8WKk/s1600/Orianna_Splash_0.jpg

And finally, we have my top prediction for the next recipient of the next Ultimate skin. Why? Firstly, Orianna is one of the most unique champions the game, where her abilities do not come from her, herself, but instead come from a ball floating above her head, which is, more or less, seperatley operated from Orianna (Its as if the ball is the real champion, and Orianna is just a pet). Secondly, her theme is so straightforward, Riot could easily come up with an idea as easily as they did DJ Sona.

What kind of idea could they take off with? Well, one thing I left out about the Ultimates is that they are all future versions of the champions. Ez gets fancy new gear from Jayce; Udyr finds enlightenment, and learns to work with the spirits; and Sona gets a MASSIVE upgrade to her etwahl. But what if, Riot were to turn the tables on us, and go back in time for Orianna? Before she died, and before her dad became ridden with grief? She becomes the dancer/fighter she always wanted to be, and the ball is built anyway in order to help in her journey, except, instead of her commands being jerky and mechanical (as they are now), they are fluid, dynamic, and beautiful to the point where she is creating a work of art on the battlefield! Riot made a skin dedicated to music, so why not they make a skin based on the one thing that always comes with music?

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Conclusion

And there you have it folks! Please remember, that all of this is just speculation. I could be right, or I could be dead wrong. Either way, it will certainly be interesting to see what Riot cooks up next.

Feel free to give your own ideas to who might be getting the next Ultimate skin, and why. I'd love to hear your guys' reasoning.

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TL;DR

I predict that Orianna will be the next champ to receive an Ultimate skin. There are plenty of reasons for this that I won't go into since I just stated them all above in the article.

EDIT: A lot of people are talking about an Elementalist Lux skin being the next Ultimate. Technically, under the rules I stated, Lux is viable for the next Ultimate, though, it would be quite surprising to see it.

In my opinion, it sounds more like a Legendary than an Ultimate, despite its price being floated around. But, who knows, this leak comes from quite a viable source, apparently. We'll just have to wait and see.