Breaking down Group D
Going into the NA LCS Summer Playoffs, most people assumed Cloud9 was the best North American team. And while yes, they were bested by Team SoloMid in a five-game brawl during the NA LCS Finals, they still remain one of the West's best hopes to achieve glory at Worlds. Except they are joined by Alliance, who finally dethroned Fnatic in a similar situation to their own with TSM, and Najin White Shield, who was the final nail in the coffin for defending World Champions, SK Telecom T1 K.
While Group D looks to be among the hardest to get through, it also remains the hardest to predict, with wildcard teams and players persisting throughout the Group. Who will emerge from chaos of Group D?
Teams
Alliance
Top: Wickd
Jungle: Shook
Mid: Froggen
ADC: Tabzz
Support: Nyph
Alliance was brought together as a Super Team after the separation of the legacy CLG.EU lineup. Froggen was given license to hand-pick his team and though it started with trouble, it has ended in glory. Alliance is the first team to win the EU LCS other than Fnatic.
Alliance received a bye in the EU LCS Playoffs by earning the No. 1 overall seed in the regular season. They dispatched SK Gaming in a reasonably close 3-1 series in the semifinals before meeting Fnatic in the Finals. They finally became the kings of Europe when they wrested the crown from Fnatic's hands by defeating them 3-1. Now as the best team in Europe, possible in the West, Alliance looks to have success on the international stage for the first time.
Cloud9
Top: Balls
Jungle: Meteos
Mid: Hai
ADC: Sneaky
Support: LemonNation
Cloud9 have been the undisputed rulers of North America for over a year. Until this split, Cloud9 had never lost a playoff game. Their reign was ended by TSM this split, but Cloud9 still look to be contenders to win Worlds. They had some struggles early in the season after mid laner Hai suffered from a collapsed lung, and that unfortunate event contributed to rusty team dynamics during the first part of the Summer. As the season progressed, Cloud9 founds its way back to top form--that is, the form they were in when they won a combined 49 games out of a possible 56.
Cloud9 managed to earn the No. 1 overall seed through their play in the regular season and by virtue of owning a tiebreaker against LMQ (who had an identical 18-10 record). The team began the playoffs by throttling the clearly inferior Team Curse 3-0 in short order, setting up a TSM vs Cloud9 final for the third consecutive split. The climatic series ended 3-2 in TSM's favor, though every game was extremely close. Whether the series showed a chink in the C9 armor, or it was simply an energized TSM overcoming their demons, remains to be seen.
KaBuM e-Sports
Top: LEP
Jungle: Danagorn
Mid: TinOwns
ADC: Minerva
Support: Dans
Kabum has been an underdog for the whole season. After having a rough time in the Brazilian Champion League, finishing 4th overall with a sub 50% regular season record, they came into the Brazilian Regional finals as heavy underdogs.
In the semifinals they were paired against traditional Brazilian power Keyd Stars, who had since acquired SuNo and Winged, two Korean players with OGN experience. They won 2-0 and went to the finals to play against CNB eSports Club - another team who upset a mixed Korean-Brazilian roster. But in the finals, KaBuM showed excellent team work and mechanical play to defeat CNB 3-1.
Finally, in the International Wildcard Tournament at PAX Prime, KaBuM proved they were stronger in every facet of the game and defeated the multi-national team PEX with relative ease 3-0.
Najin White Shield
Top: Save
Jungle: Watch
Mid: Ggoong
ADC: Zefa
Support: GorillA
Najin White Shield has shown consistency throughout 2014, in that they finished in the Top 8 of OGN Champions in each of the three seasons. They began the year by finishing 4th in OGN Winter, losing out to Samsung Ozone in the semifinals and KT Rolster Bullets in the 3rd place match 3-1 in both matches. After their disappointing finish to an otherwise solid season, jungler Watch transferred over from Najin Black Sword to help improve Shield after their previous jungler NoFe retired.
They improved dramatically in OGN Spring and finished 2nd to Samsung Blue, barely losing out in the finals. Unfortunately, in OGN Summer, Shield only managed to get to the quarterfinals where they lost to eventual champions KT Rolster Arrows 2-3. But this wouldn't be the last time the two teams played this season.
Najin White Shield had one of the most impressive runs through the Korean Regionals gauntlet in history. They began by dismantling a struggling KT Bullets lineup 3-0. Their next match was against the reigning OGN Champions KT Arrows, a team that had defeated Shield only weeks previously. Shield dominated the defending champions 3-0, with only one close game. Finally, Shield defeated the defending World Champion SK Telecom T1 K 3-1 in the last match of Regionals to make Worlds. While inconsistent in their third season of OGN, they come into Worlds as the hottest team in the tournament.
Group Dynamics
The ability for the three Western-based teams to adapt to Najin White Shield's playstyle, and rise above it, will define Group D. While Najin White Shield enters Worlds on a huge hot streak, Alliance and Cloud9 are spending time training in Korea before the Group Stage to try to adapt to the Korean playstyle - and learn a few tricks of their own.
It seems unlikely for Najin White Shield to drop many games to any of these teams, and it will be similarly unlikely for KaBuM to have much success in the group. The key factors in the group will be how Cloud9 and Alliance play against each other, and secondarily, their ability to take at least a game from Shield. It's likely that the head-to-head record between Cloud9 and Alliance will determine the No. 2 team in Group D.
Playstyles
This group matches all the different styles of the West against each other: South America's aggressive in-your-face explosiveness, North America's teamwork and Korean-influenced objective control, and Europe's mechanical prowess and lane dominance. Cloud9 has experience against extremely aggressive teams through their matches and practice against LMQ, but Alliance has limited experience against teams that put a strong importance over objective control; Fnatic is notoriously bad at controlling global objectives. They will get some of this experience training in Korea, but it's hard to tell how much this will prepare them for Cloud9.
Najin White Shield has the best basis for comparison of any of these teams, having played against all of these styles at varying points. Samsung White could be seen as a better version of Alliance, while Najin White Shield themselves plays similarly to Cloud9, and KT Arrows represent some of the most aggressive players and teamplay in the World.
Key Players
Watch
As the only player on the Shield lineup with Worlds experience, Watch's leadership - both in game and out of game -- will be important to the success of the team. His job is to set the pace and tempo of how the team plays, and to help direct their adaptations to the global metagame that develops during the World Championship. He also is likely the best jungler in the group, and has a huge chance to impact the game, provided he can out play his best competition, Meteos, in the games that Shield plays against Cloud9.
Froggen
As Froggen goes, so does Alliance. No player at Worlds is more instrumental in his team's success than Froggen is to Alliance. He has evolved his playstyle from traditional farm champions like Anivia and Orianna, to include Assassins such as Zed and Yasuo. This change has made him a more complete player, and given Alliance more viable strategies against international teams coming into Worlds. Froggen's ability to out play Ggoong will be the most important factor in this group, as he likely has an edge on all other players. However if Froggen struggles against White Shield, or only goes even with Cloud9's Hai, Alliance has little chance to succeed.
Balls
Balls has been hailed as one of the best top laners in the World by several Korean pro gamers, but domestically, he’s had a lot of trouble. He had his worst split in his career during the Summer, and in the playoffs, he had little chance to make his mark on the game, being put alongside a support for the first six levels in the bottom lane while Sneaky earned solo experience and farm. If Balls can resume his superstar level of play, Cloud9 will easily escape the group by virtue of him outplaying both Save and Wickd. Otherwise, Cloud9 is lacking for playmakers.
Minerva
As KaBuM's strongest mechanical player, Minerva has carried many games for his team. While his team will likely have inferior lanes and teamplay to the more experienced squads from developed regions, Minerva's individual play may be able to carry KaBuM to wins during the Group Stage. His team will only have success if he has a great tournament.
Wildcards
Ggoong
When Ggoong plays Ahri or Orianna, at times, he looks like the best mid laner in the game. When he plays Yasuo, he looks awkward and awful. Ggoong isn't as tied to the success of his team as Froggen or even Watch, but it is important he goes at least even against Froggen or Hai in lane. Ggoong will dominate the Group Stage if he has a great game or is allowed to play Ahri.
LemonNation
LemonNation has proven to be a liability for Cloud9 at times. However as the master of champion select, and their early game shotcaller, his contributions are extremely valuable. He has played well on Thresh and Braum in recent times, but on occasion he gets caught out or makes inexcusable mistakes. If LemonNation plays above his average ability, and at his peak, Cloud9 will have an edge on their opponents.
Meteos
While Meteos was previously thought of as a top-three jungler in the World, Meteos' stock has fallen this season. While he has performed solidly and consistently, his awesome play in previous splits has been missing in action, especially since the playoffs. Meteos is one of the few junglers at the World Championship who can single handedly win a game for his team, but it's been a while since we've seen him do it. If Meteos plays the way he did in 2013 or early 2014, Cloud9 could easily win the group.
Shook
Shook has been inconsistent throughout 2014. At times he looks like Alliance's strongest player, and other times he's just sort of there. If Shook can shore up his play, Alliance will defeat Cloud9 easily and they will give Shield a run for their money. But if he continues to just mail in his performances, Alliance's first Worlds trip will be short.
Group Prediction
It's hard to think of a scenario where Najin White Shield doesn't make it through the Group Stage. They are superior to most Western teams at every position, though that doesn't necessarily hold true at Worlds. They will still have to play well to advance, but considering recent history, that's all but assured.
The harder question is who gets through at No. 2. Alliance and Cloud9 are very closely matched, and the matches between them will come down to which of their players step up. Cloud9 needs top-shelf performances from LemonNation, Meteos, and Balls to complement the steady and high-quality play from Hai and Sneaky. Alliance needs Shook, Tabzz, and Wickd to match the consistency of Nyph and pristine play of Froggen.
No matter what, it'll be a close one. Cloud9 matches up favorably across the board with Alliance, with a small edge given to Froggen against Hai - but not enough to sweep the games between them.
- Najin White Shield
- Cloud9
- Alliance
- KaBuM
Frank Fields is a Senior Web Content Coordinator for Riot Games. You'll find him in solo queue on Ahri trying to DFG charm his way back into Diamond, or on Twitter where he'd love to talk to you about esports.