Some fun maths.

rujitra·2/22/2019, 3:47:53 AM·9 votes·3,253 views

Let's say you consistently and without fail play two ranks above your current rank. Thus, you should climb. Let's also say that the chance any player in your current rank is a troll, afks, feeds their lane, whatever is 10% or 0.1.

It follows that the chance you have one of these players on your team is the following:

0.1*0.1*0.1*0.1 + 0.1*0.1*0.1*0.9 + 0.1*0.1*0.9*0.9 + 0.1*0.9*0.9*0.9 OVER 0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9

Or about 12.498%. This is because if you play consistently, then there is no chance you are a troll, thus we only have to consider your four teammates. We add up all possible outcomes (the chance 4 teammates are trolls, the chance 3 are, etc.) And divide by the chance that none is a troll to get the ratio of games you will have at least one troll in.

Now, let's consider the chance those players are on the enemy team:

0.1*0.1*0.1*0.1*0.1 + 0.9*0.1*0.1*0.1*0.1 + 0.9*0.9*0.1*0.1*0.1 + 0.9*0.9*0.9*0.1*0.1 + 0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9*0.1 OVER 0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9

This amounts to 12.499%. This statistical fact holds true no matter what the proportion of trolls is in your rank. The likelihood of a troll on the enemy team will always be higher than on your team, which means over hundreds of games, you will climb.

But we started off assuming that you weren't climbing - we assumed that you play above your rank and the only reason you aren't climbing is because of these trolls. We have proven that trolls have no factor on your rank, and that in fact you will win 0.001% more of your games simply because the enemy has a troll than you lost because you have a troll.

As such, there is a contradiction - we've proven that trolls actually make you win more games than they make you lose, which makes you climb, yet we assumed that you were not at your deserved rank and not climbing because of trolls. This cannot be the case, and thus one of three things must be true:

  • You are not not at your deserved rank, thus you are at your deserved rank.

Or

  • You are not climbing for some reason other than trolls (or afks whatever). Well the only thing other than your teammates that affects your climb is you... thus we must assume you are not climbing because of you...

Or

  • You yourself are a troll, and thus our assumption you are not in our maths is wrong, thus the maths failed. Though, if you're a troll, there's a 100% chance of a troll on your team, and thus that's the reason you lose so..

Quod Erat Demonstratum. Trolls are not a factor in your rank.


#Limitations:

  • Doesn't factor into account that this is statistics of infinity, thus obviously some players will experience differently, especially over 10s of games. However, the more games someone plays, the more closely this will approximate their teams, thus the less chance that trolls are actually impacting them negatively is.

  • Doesn't take into account that the player in our case, the one we said was consistently two ranks above their skill, is not consistent, period. No player plays exactly the same each game for a variety of factors. However, this is a again a reason that can only be blamed on the player, not others.

  • Does not take into consideration the chance another player in the game is playing above or below their skill. The math to prove this is exactly the same, but requires considering upwards of 2^9 configurations if we assume the player is constant or 2^10 configurations if we factor in the chance the player plays above or below skill. That's way too long for a post and honestly I can't be arsed to type it out, so I'll leave that to you to prove for yourself if you so desire. There are some neat tricks to control the number of cases you have to deal with in this analysis and make it manageable, and if you look closely, you'll see that the proof is exactly the same thus the result is the same.

Good luck on the rift!

28 Comments

PurpleYukari2/22/2019, 4:28:09 AM8 votes

But trolls are more visibly common on your team because enemy team trolls isn't directly visible often if they are on the enemy team, unless they take it to all chat or try to throw the game. Also as trolling is often directed towards teammates and not the enemy team, it doesn't feel as negative when you are on the trolls enemy team. That is why the misconception exists, in spite of rioters and others using logic to show that its not the case. The experience is why. Of course, some people who troll will claim the deck is stacked against them, but being a troll yourself changes the chances.

Leonerdo2/22/2019, 6:16:54 AM6 votes

Well, I came for the math and the math was wrong, so I'm a little disappointed. Chance of getting one or more trolls on your team is just the opposite of NOT getting any trolls on your team: (1 - 0.9^4) or 34.39%. And for your opponent it's: (1 - 0.9^5) or 40.95%.

Not that any of this is even relevant. The specific numbers are not important unless you're going to do a full statistical evaluation and tell people how likely it is to actually lose a significant amount of MMR unfairly because of trolls.

TrulyBland2/22/2019, 6:25:23 PM3 votes

Not that I disagree with your overall message, but your math is off.

For one: If you want to calculate the overall chance of getting 1 or more trolls on your team you don't have to divide by 0.9x0.9x0.9x0.9(x0.9). That division gives you, instead, the ratio of troll-games vs non-troll games as opposed to the ratio of troll-games to all games.

Secondly, you are not including the appropriate binomial factors. There is only one way for all five players to be trolls (or non-trolls), there are five ways for one player to be a troll, since that player could be the first, the second, the third, the fourth, or the fifth player. As a matter of fact that's another big factor in why the other team is more likely to have a troll, as the binomial coefficients are always equal or larger when doing the calculations for five players.

For four players, the binomial coefficients for 1,2,3,4 trolls respectively are 4,6,4,1. For five players, the binomial coefficients for 1,2,3,4,5 trolls respectively are 5,10,10,5,1

It's a bit of a mess to write all that in a readable format on these forums, but I'll give it a try.

Chance for at least one troll on your team:

1 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.1 [four trolls] 4 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.9 [three trolls] 6 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.9 x 0.9 [two trolls] 1 x 0.1 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 [one troll] sum it all up: 34.39%

Chance for at least one troll on enemy team:

1 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.1 [five trolls] 5 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.9 [four trolls] 10 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.9 x 0.9 [three trolls] 10 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 [two trolls] 5 x 0.1 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 [one troll] sum it all up: 40.951%

Now that we've done the complicated version, let's take a look at a much much easier way of calculating this: The chance that no troll is on your team is obviously P(0) = 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 = 65.61% Since you either have at least one troll or none, both of those need to add up to 100%: P(0)+P(1+) = 100% Therefore: P(1+) = 100% - P(0) = 34.39%

Same for the enemy team: P(0) = 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 = 59.049% Since you either have at least one troll or none, both of those need to add up to 100%: P(0)+P(1+) = 100% Therefore: P(1+) = 100% - P(0) = 40.951%

As you can see both chances rose significantly from what you put down... but the difference between those two has increased much more. The chance that you profit from trolls is significantly higher than the chance that you will suffer from them. Edit: For crying out loud… can't properly do asterisks anymore… one second while I replace them all with x's. Edit2: Done

Edit3: Since somebody has suggested the chance per player to be a troll is closer to 60%, let me do that, too:

Your team: P(0) = 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 = 2.56% P(1+) = 100% - P(0) = 97.44%

Enemy team: P(0) = 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 = 1.024% P(1+) = 100% - P(0) = 98.976%

Shleelpboy2/22/2019, 4:12:57 AM2 votes

When I'm on the rift It's either I lose lane or top lane gets gangbanged.

Hemulen Magi2/22/2019, 5:30:23 AM1 votes

I am a troll, but I've always accepted that instead of claiming others are holding me back. ; ) I'll keep on taking Shaco support and Yorick support and Rammus support and many more into ranked, and I won't worry too much about climbing. It's nice to hit gold for the victorious skin (which I have done despite being a 'troll'), but otherwise, I don't really care what division I am in as long as I can keep experimenting and have fun. I'll keep on coming up with new strategies in normals and testing them in ranked, because that's my prerogative and the reason I continue playing.

By the way, I came up with the aftershock Lissandra last year before discussing it on the boards and subsequently watching it become meta last year. I also played a lot of Fiddlesticks support early in the season before it became "too meta" so I moved on to find something new to experiment with. It's funny how 'troll' strategies become meta. People should recognize that the first people to experiment with anything new are usually labeled as trolls, so we trolls are actually the people generating all of the new emergent playstyles and strategies. It is kind of ironic though that my teammates blame my 'trolling' for holding them back when I often have higher MMR with a more upward trend. Sure, I could probably carry them harder more reliably with something meta, but I play off-meta enough that my MMR is accurate and results in fair matches when I am playing off-meta.

Tele II2/22/2019, 6:16:43 AM1 votes

Nope not true. Also, the earth is flat.

Nadiri2/22/2019, 4:44:58 AM1 votes

Trolls are 60% for me. Start from people who says ''CUZ AM BOSS'' ended to people who likes to play support role without sup item. Or there are some people who likes to come and feed my lane just because I didn't answered to their salt and i put them in mute list. I don't blame riot it is people, can't really fix it just increase leavebuster bans.... pls.

Voldymort2/22/2019, 7:35:55 AM1 votes

you seem to have forgotten that your calculations are based on 2 initial assumptions

Let's say you consistently and without fail play two ranks above your current rank. Thus, you should climb. Let's also say that the chance any player in your current rank is a troll, afks, feeds their lane, whatever is 10% or 0.1.

Vreivai2/22/2019, 8:00:55 AM1 votes

{quoted}

  • You are not climbing for some reason other than trolls (or afks whatever). Well the only thing other than your teammates that affects your climb is you... thus we must assume you are not climbing because of you...

Or you're consistently queuing into people ranked multiple tiers above you while losing more LP on losses than you gain on wins.

KFCeytron2/22/2019, 4:39:27 AM1 votes

The "limitations" section is much more practical and relevant than the rest of the post.

OctavGaming2/22/2019, 8:24:51 PM1 votes

Your math is correct, but it stands true just in chanp select, in game there is another story. You have a 12.498% of having a troll and if that happens when entering in the game it will troll by being afk which doesnt really do much or by feeding and here is what happens. If you get a feeder the enemy will get more kills and gold as we all know and then will get ahead in items and because your team doesnt have mr, armor etc. or anything to help them stay alive and not die constantly the rate of winning starts going down. That is why the win rate is low. So the math is made just in case of an afk.

Kha Trix2/23/2019, 4:30:13 PM1 votes

The only reason this post is getting down voted is because of some people's fragile egos. And perhaps because they also understand that "bad" or "inexperienced" players are trolls (inexperienced is a metaphor for like how Yassuo ints and doesn't think he did it.). Their ego happens to be too big. Such happens the higher elo they are and the less time they've spent on it. To error is human, but these kind of people "do not have time to lose due to it". Yeah, I understand it's tilting that you lost because of him, but winning/losing that single game isn't a synonym to "unable to climb". Even Yassuo stated it himself: "You will lose games because of your teammates, but it's not because of them that you can't climb.".

So far, I only ever found 1 real Troll in my team, who picked Teemo with Ghost and Cleanse as soon as I banned his Lee Sin accidentally. I dodged, thankfully, and it used to be on bronze elo. Several weeks later, I saw that same motherf*cker at bronze I, while I was II. This motivated me to climb a heck of a lot faster, and just surpass that triggered Troll, and I made it into Silver II.

Side story apart, there is also data about how people usually hate losing 2 times more than they like winning. In the climb, a person is focused on gaining LP, however, if you break it down to the simplest (at least on my side), when I play ranked, I win so I don't lose LP. Winning LP happens to be a side-effect to that (since you can't draw).

Due to this "hate" for loss, the human nature of players force them to find something to blame even amidst the game. While I don't see myself as a flamer, when I see bot dying twice, I think to myself "Our bot is going to cost us the game!". cost. As in "losing the game", different from "losing the win". I know they sound similar, but to me, they're different, at least try to see it from my point of view. Even as I type this, whenever I try to make premises and conclusions, these are the two that I first I thought: "If I don't win, I lose"; "If I lose, I won't win.". These were accidentally the same for me, but were what I was most worried about.

I know all this I am saying seems basically just one side with its one argument, but it holds true in terms of dominance of my thinking behavior, and I am sure I am not the only one.

Heh, if you actually think about it, we blame others so we don't blame us in order to feel decently good and still be able to play.

Going back to topic, as a "what-if scenario" where you use the 10%, this is an amazing work of math. Obviously, the percentage of Trolls in the literally sense of the word is significantly lower, and as a conclusion to my arguments, some of the "trolls" are just bad players, or players having a bad game.

Imma be real sad if what I'm saying turns out to be super uncoherent between sentences, lmao. Hope you all understand what I am saying.