Riot, the numbers you give for banned players just don't add up (Math inside)

DrCyanide·10/9/2017, 6:24:19 PM·36 votes·4,068 views

What Riot says:

0.006% permabanned
1/2 of players reform at each punishment tier

Working the math backwards:

0.006% permabanned * 2 = 0.012% get 14 day ban
0.012% 14 day ban * 2 = 0.024% get 25 game chat restriction
0.024% 25 game chat restriction * 2 = 0.048% get 10 game chat restrictions

If we round up to 0.05% to make the math easier, then you end up with:

1 player chat restricted for every 2,000 players
1 player chat restricted for every 200 games
1 teammate chat restricted for 500 games

Now tell me. Do you honestly believe that the negativity in League is so minor that only one teammate in your last 500 games deserved a 10 game chat restriction?

One of the numbers Riot gave us is wrong, and my money is on the 0.006%

55 Comments

ARAM ZooKeeper10/9/2017, 6:33:54 PM5 votes

I see more than 0.006% of players that have a perma-bannable new troll account name with some misspelled racial slur in it.

ModUlanopo10/9/2017, 6:35:50 PM3 votes

I'm not familiar with a "0.006%" number. The last number I was aware of was "0.5% of players have received some sort of punishment."

DarkRitual10/10/2017, 11:49:08 AM3 votes

Do you realize how many people play and don't even bother to chat or say anything? No you don't, because they're nearly invisible and you tend to instantly forget about them.

It's memory bias, which is completely natural. You rememeber the loud, the toxic, and negative players, as well as those awesome players that pull the team together. But those other 195 players are nonexistant in your memory.

Then you also factor in the fact that being negative or slightly toxic in one game won't get you punished, as it need to be either very bad toxicity or a pattern of behavior.

ModDaenrysTargaryen10/9/2017, 6:30:39 PM2 votes

riot has not updated that number in a while, when riot first made the bans and stuff it was at .006, i do not think riot will update the number much maybe 1 time a year. also your math is a little wrong, it would be higher chat restrictions because people do just have bad days and only do it once, and out of a million people i can see about 1/3 of them getting a chat restriction

DuskDaUmbreon10/9/2017, 8:44:52 PM2 votes

The number you have wrong is the 1/2 reform. That's not right at all, and I actually have no idea where it comes from. And, even if that number is right, you're ignoring mere warnings, which would give you almost .1% that get warnings, which is the first "punishment" issued.

Most people reform after a warning or a chat restriction. Arguably at least 90%. 50% doesn't even make sense, given that most toxic people aren't inherently toxic, they're just tilted, and had a bad day. Even the best of us have bad days. More than half of people would reform after a warning. And then a lot of the remaining are toxic because they don't believe anything's going to happen to them. That's 99% removed, right there.

Telephone Booth10/9/2017, 11:50:28 PM2 votes

Does that math really work? Is it really as simple as starting from .0006 and working backwards from there? Like, it doesn't seem like it would be that simple, but to be honest I don't think I have the intelligence to argue it. I'm thinking like... permaban is the most rare, so why would the amount of chat restrictions correlate to the amount of permabans? Aren't you oversimplifying the math? Honest question.

Just because .0006% get perma'd, and half reform in each tier, that doesn't mean that it's just .0006 x2 for each tier going down. Right? It doesn't always go from 10 CR, 25 CR, 14 temp ban, permaban. A lot of people skip tiers, so it automatically makes your math irrelevant right?

Rand0mH3r0X10/9/2017, 11:52:50 PM2 votes

Okay... math... I think I've got this by now....

If we round up to 0.05% to make the math easier, then you end up with:

1 player chat restricted for every 2,000 players 1 player chat restricted for every 200 games 1 teammate chat restricted for 500 games

Somehow you messed this up.

OppsYourDead10/10/2017, 1:23:33 PM2 votes

dont you guys think even if you got prema ban you deserve a second chance ? my account got premaban while my friend was playing. yes i was stupid to let him play. but i was away for half a year so i didnt mind. when i got back i see my account is premaban.. i contact riot and they say nothing can be done and they treat every player "equally" and its not true. i saw lot of people being toxic on pourpse and getting prema ban than submiting ticket and gets ban lifted. now im playing since 2012-13 and i invested lots of money and time on this game [700games per year] and they wont help me. what can i do ? why its so harsh.. people make mistakes. after all we are all human we make mistakes. but punishing for so samll one is just wrong.

Shadòw10/10/2017, 8:51:48 PM2 votes

the number probably only means 0.006% of all accounts get permabanned, including smurfs and inactive accounts, and accounts that were instantly dropped.

GigglesO10/10/2017, 4:15:53 AM1 votes

I report alot of players in plat... and I think I get one instant feed back out of about every 4-5 games.

EvilDustMan10/9/2017, 6:34:23 PM1 votes

If I remember, the has been punished statistic is 5%. So 1 in 20 get a chat restriction once, which is reasonable.

themachamp10/12/2017, 5:48:57 AM1 votes

the .006% works because they actually go by "active" accounts...not players. even if the message says players. Accounts can remain active for years after playing their last game. Hell, a permabanned level 30 acct will be considered "active" for roughly 2 years since the last game.

YerroFever10/9/2017, 6:49:19 PM1 votes

I'm not familiar with "half of each tier punishment reforms"

I'm familiar with nearly half the players who get punished once reform.

Where are you pulling your facts from?

NorthernRedStar10/10/2017, 1:56:05 PM1 votes

This is legitimate bullshit. Every, LITERALLY EVERY, ranked game there is someone - flaming / trolling / afking / inting / being annoying - and so on. There is NO WAY these numbers are accurate. Just no way. Do you trust - effectively - 3rd party -given statistics more than your OWN experience? Does ANYONE?

Yeah, thought so.

Rainfall10/9/2017, 9:01:37 PM1 votes

yeah riot has not changed the number in a while and imagine that** 0.006% was the number for permabans when the system needed 3 games of inflamatory behavior now it only needs 1** and 14 day bans are way more frequent than they used to.

Farm With Jayce4/17/2019, 2:33:31 AM1 votes

Its because there are millions and millions of botted account in League that Riot seems to forget when they do these studies.

Glory ln Death10/10/2017, 10:20:07 PM1 votes

Pretty sure the loading screen tool tip lists it as a much higher reform rate.