Probability question
I don't remember how to deal with negative binomial PDFs and I'm far too lazy/tired to look it up, so I'm hoping one of your guys knows the answer (with correct mathematical proof).
You're at a casino playing roulette. You decide to prioritize fun over attempting to make a profit like a responsible gambler so you split your X dollars into N bets of even value. You only play one bet per roulette spin. Because you're responsible, you will only play AT MOST N times.
You have come up with two strategies since you wanna win big money:
- Bet on Black 17 until you win once or lose N times.
- Bet on Black 17 N times
(Probability of winning = 1/38 with a return of 36*bet)
What is the expected value of 1 and 2 in terms of X and N?