Recording key fragment drops
I only have records from after they stopped dropping for me, and after I got 4 chests. Not that Riot has said 4 chests has any effect on key fragment drop rates, or that there is some key fragment maximum.
Feel free to drop your own records.
I only queue by myself (solo) or with my gf (duo).
So far:
My records:
19 solo wins, 1 key fragments 3 duo wins, 0 key fragments
My records + records from comments(not necessarily under same conditions as my own):
43 solo games, 1 key fragments 6 duo games, 0 key fragments 2 trio games, 2 key fragments 1 quartet game, 0 key fragments
If the numbers get big enough, we can guess the current drop rates. Even if it is subject to change as the Rioters say, that doesn't stop me from wanting to know what the current odds are.
Also, all games are Summoner's Rift, normal, blind pick. All games are played with my owned champions (I've heard that free rotation champs cannot get key fragments).
Edit: I got a key fragment precisely on my 10th solo win after I started recording.
Current odds of getting a key fragment:
1 key fragment / 19 solo wins = 5.3% chance of getting a key fragment per solo win
Edit 2:
These quotes are missing important context around the sentences, but, nonetheless, they are definitely confusing and let me try to rephrase:
Within a player's month, keys fragments drop less frequently, as that player earns more fragments. However, this system resets monthly, so it doesn't get infinitely harder. There's a cycle of faster and slower periods throughout the year.
Rito finally explained what's going on and why it feels impossible to get key fragments currently. Monthly keys 1-5 are probs above 30% solo win drop rate, while keys 6-10 are likely below 30% solo win drop rate (based on my data and statistical analysis using confidence intervals for proportions). All drop rates are slightly higher in groups.
I'm not going to keep updating this post as I feel satisfied with this explanation, even though I disagree completely with the system. I understand that some players might complain that they have too many useless key fragments lying around if the drop rate were lowered, but right now players are complaining that they have too many useless chests lying around, and that's worse imo. Rito says that they want to consider both players who play infrequently and binge players, but neither will be satisfied with the current system. Infrequent players will only be able to open half their chests, because they will never reach the keys 6-12 (requiring around 10 solo wins for each of the last 3 keys specifically) needed for their final two monthly chests, and their unopened chests will just keep growing and growing, (if they regularly get S ranks). Binge players on the other hand will open all of their chests but it will take them the full month to do it, even though they can get the chests immediately as soon as they are off cooldown. Delaying the reward for getting the S rank reveals that the reward is not actually for champion mastery, but just for playing a lot and occasionally getting an S.
I get that Rito is a business and wants to make money, and this system is not going to lose them any players (i.e. potential customers), but given that the chests drop pre-owned champs, unwanted skins that can even be for unowned champions, and a Hextech Annie skin that requires 10 rare gems (10 chests containing rare gems? So like a year of grinding and praying for a rare gem instead of a shitty skin? I'm not certain), they could do to let people open their chests with less grief. Since the chests usually contain unwanted or useless crap, they should not require 40+ solo wins per month to open.
Please treat us as players rather than moneybags, even though we will still give you money if you disrespect us, as, at least for me, League is very addictive and I can't resist a good-looking skin on an attractive female champion. I reckon we will also give you money if you give us occasional free stuff and consistently output nice-looking skins and fun new champions that make our gaming experience more enjoyable.
One alternative I can think of is to link key fragment rates to post-game scores, but not to champions, so one champion can be used to obtain all the key fragments. Chests support champion diversity, which is something that is really fun and interesting and that I enjoy exploring very much, (although I think S ranks on free rotation champs should count for a chest, and also that notification at the end of every free rotation game is annoying), so players are pushed to go out and play more champs and get more addicted to your game which is really fun and great and has a lot of variety.
Key fragments on the other hand would support another very addictive playstyle: that of mastering a favorite champ. You don't need to choose one playstyle over the other. People can play 15 games on their main, and then branch out to 5-10 other champions in 15 different games, (especially games where they don't get the right lane for their main, or when their main is picked/banned by another player), for a total of 6-11 champions in 30 games. In those 15 fun games played on their main, they can get a lot of A-S ranks and rack in the key fragments. In the 15 explorative games played on other champions, they can get a few S ranks and obtain the chests they did not get with their main. This all occurs with just about 1 game per day for one month, allowing infrequent players to participate. It also ties free rewards to actual in-game achievements, which is a powerful motivating and addictive force for gamers. Ultimately, you end up giving out more free stuff, but players are also more satisfied and willing to keep playing and paying for champs and skins.
The biggest problem is what happens when people play greater than 30 games per month. Maybe decrease key fragment drop rates once 12 keys are reached in a month, which is what you already do. It's true that binge players could get 12 keys in 1 day but those players don't need as much incentive to keep playing. They're already addicted, as evidenced by their binge playing. To avoid key fragment stacking, I think I would allow players to turn key fragments into 50 IP each. Some binge players might have the maximum number of full rune pages and every champ in the game, but they can still use IP for their smurf accounts. The amount of IP needed to obtain all content in the game is ridiculous. Even after 1000 games, I still don't own every champ, and I only have 5 slightly varied rune pages. It's true that I haven't bought a champ with RP, but I have spent a lot of money on skins. If I had to guess it'd be between $200-400. That's $200-400 from a player who is still very interested in gaining IP and spending more money if you make content that I happen to like.
