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How much does rank really matter? An empirical investigation.

CupcakeTrap··4 votes·703 views

How much do rank differences really matter? Which rank differences matter the most? Are Golds and Silvers pretty much interchangeable, or would a Gold team absolutely wreck a Silver team? Would the outcome change if you gave the Silvers a couple Plats to help them out?

If you'd like to play a mixed-rank match or two to help us gather data, click here. You can also just join the in-client chat:

http://i.imgur.com/3Sar1So.jpg

Below, I share the results of an initial survey on player perceptions.

A hypothetical scenario

Imagine that you have 5,000 RP riding on the outcome of a LoL match. But you aren't allowed to play in the match: instead, you get to build a team, using a set budget of points. Rather than selecting individual players, you select ranks. Would you rather have a Diamond, three Silvers, and a Bronze, or a team of five Golds? How much more would you "pay" for a Gold than a Silver?

A little while ago, I conducted a survey on this topic. You can read the results here. Ultimately, though, that's just guesswork. Ever since, I've been wondering what actual empirical testing would show.

The experiment

I can resist the urge to science no longer, and therefore I seek your help in answering this question.

Here's how you can participate. Basically, you just throw together a custom match with any mix of skill levels, then send in the results.

The form is set up so that all results are fully public as soon as they're submitted. This will create a public dataset that anyone can use to perform analysis. I will also be running my own analysis, which I will (of course) share freely.

So, if you share a love for empirical investigation, or you just want to see how much rank differences really matter, or you're up for a bit of imba fun, please join in! Every bit of data helps.

You can think of it as an ethical alternative to smurfing to see how hard you’d stomp lower-ranked players, or as an ethical alternative to buying an Elo boost to see how you’d really measure up against higher-ranked players.

8 Comments

Sneak Dog2 votes

Interesting point, but I think you might miss a few things:

Roles. Different roles snowball more or less and have more or less impact in the game, could be interesting to see if a diamond mid player can just reliably carry by snowballing his lane then snowballing his silver level botlane over the enemy diamond botlane.

Leadership. Personal opinion coming: I think the main difference between gold and higher is teamplay, gold has the laning phase relatively well, but after that it's still shaky. A diamond level player with a team of gold players that he leads into mid/lategame would be mildly superior to a platinum team. However, if the diamond player does not take this upon himself, well, the end is nigh.

Knowledge. Knowing what ranks ones teammates and opponents are will influence behavior, in ranked you generally only know allies since opponents' borders no longer show.

CupcakeTrap2 votes

I definitely agree that there is a unique meta-game when you have a mixed-rank situation. It's a common topic in Factions — what do you do when you're a Bronze up against a Plat mid? What do you do when you're the lone Diamond on your team? Where do you send your best Summoners: do you spread out, or do you (e.g.) run Diamond/Plat bot and hope to snowball hard enough there to save your other laners?

Another topic you bring up which is much-discussed in Factions is the leadership angle. Some theorize that there's a reliable and consistent breakdown of skill progression, such as "you go from Bronze to Silver by improving mechanics, and from Silver to Gold by learning basic big-picture strategy, and from Gold to Plat by learning advanced strategy." If that's the case, then one might expect a big burst of utility from having at least one high-tier Summoner on the team. You can test this using the dataset we will (hopefully) gather: e.g., you might use a formula that gives a boost in predicted winrate based on the highest tier player on a team, modeling them as a "captain".

I think this is part of why the question of how much various rank differences matter is interesting: there are a lot of potential factors involved. The data I hope to gather here will, I think, shed some light on these questions.

As for the knowledge factor, with LoLNexus, your enemies' tiers are known to you when you head into game. And in modes like Factions, you generally will know the tier makeup of the enemy team as well.

skippersd1 votes

A few other problems:

  • Some ppl are silver 1 with 100 ranked games. Others are silver 1 with 1k. Does the two player have equal skill?

  • Main roles: I personally know some silver ranked players who can go toe to toe with a diamond ranked one if they get their main role/champ.

With this in mind, I'd recommend adding a few layers to the experiment.

  • Note every player's main role, and their best champ (both in their opinion, and based on a data site)

  • Note their worst role (in their opinion)

This way a fair comparison would be between two mid lane mains, when they are on their best champ (and compare THAT to the average of the matchup)

CupcakeTrap1 votes

Some ppl are silver 1 with 100 ranked games. Others are silver 1 with 1k. Does the two player have equal skill?

If the system places them both in Silver, it thinks so. But perhaps, for instance, players with more matches of experience, though they perform about the same in regular solo queue, will fare better or worse in mixed-rank matches. Maybe more games means more flexibility, and more familiarity playing against higher/lower-tier opponents.

If we see lots of variance — if, for instance, the performance of Silvers is really all over the place — this might be something to test later. It would require asking people to enter the number of ranked games for every Summoner in the match, though, which would be rather onerous.

Right now, we have a grand total of zero matches entered into the dataset, as the project was just launched last night and word is still getting around. To help ensure it gets off the ground, I've been careful not to place too many demands on the match-runners. I think entering everyone's tier is about as far as I can push people.

Main roles: I personally know some silver ranked players who can go toe to toe with a diamond ranked one if they get their main role/champ.

Well, that's part of what the game reflects: if I super-carry when I get my main (90% win rate) and feed with everyone else (20% win rate), then my overall win rate will reflect how often I tend to get my main.

Again, unfortunately, asking for everyone's mains/best roles would drastically increase the difficulty of reporting match results, and discourage data. But I do think this is also a potential issue for investigation that you raise: for instance, it might influence the application of the dataset to Factions, where the Champion lists are heavily limited. Maybe low-rank players do better when there's a more limited universe of Champions to learn to play as/with/against.

ratminer1 votes

http://www.lolskill.net/
Try using some data from lolskill, it'll help with the whole main roles, and you won't have to ask what each person's main role is

While it probably isn't perfect in showing how good a player is with a ceartain role, it does a relatively decent job at showing champion skill by comparing your skill with that champ to other people who play that champ

SherdDergin1 votes

Is that even a question? of course it doesn't. A person can only get as good as they are mentally capable of being. Your rank in game has nothing to do with that. If anything it just shows that you've spent a lot of time playing ranked. Not that it isn't fun to try and clime the ranks and makes you feel like you can compare yourself to others like a badge of honor. However, lots of people are actually scared of playing ranked, because it's more stressful and people are extremely prone to raging and reporting. So there is a lot of people that don't like to play it at all, but that doesn't mean that there not good.

CupcakeTrap1 votes

tl;dr: I do think it's a real question. I'm honestly not sure. If you held a gun to my head and made me guess at the relative magnitude of the rank gaps to save my life, I could make a guess, but I'm not at all confident I'd be right. There are lots of theories and hunches, but not much data (that we have access to).

This is one of the big questions that this data might allow us to investigate. It might show that there really isn't that big a difference, and it's really hard to predict whether a GGSSS team will beat an SSSSB team. Or it might show that even a small difference in rank significantly unbalances the match.

Why does this matter? Well:

  • Pure curiosity.
  • Factions and other custom game modes care about this a lot. Let's say Demacia gets DDSBB together and Ionia has PPPGS. Is that a fair match? Do we hit Start? Do we wait another 5 minutes to try to get a more even mix? If we play it as-is, how many points should Demacia gain if it wins: more or less than it would for a mirror match?
  • Duos. Sometimes you find yourself in a Ranked game with a duo. Let's say that it's mostly a Gold game, but the enemy has a Bronze and a Diamond plus three Golds, while your team is all Gold. You end up laning against the Diamond. How cautious should you be?

I want to emphasize that this isn't about beating up on people or winning bragging rights for high-Tier Summoners, or for taking those bragging rights away. It's just empirical investigation.

Your comment is a good one in that it gets at another point: not everyone plays Ranked. If it turns out that the Unranked population is a total wildcard, then that's something to keep in mind when setting up Factions matches or whatnot.

Maybe it'll turn out that Rank is just a terrible way to balance matches for Factions. We might want to start mixing in number of wins or something else. Who knows.

The "Gold Standard" would be to give each Summoner an ID and track their Factions MMR. That would be a huge burden, though, and it'd be hard to disentangle their faction from their skill level.

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