Season 8 and IP conversion

So, as I'm pretty sure everyone knows, once Season 8 comes up all IP will be converted into blue essence. What's interesting though is that your current blue essence will also be multiplied by 6.5. This got me thinking that there might be a possibility that, by converting your IP into blue essence (via buying champion shards), you will actually get more than what you started with. With that in mind, this post is not directed at the players who have massive amounts of IP, but rather those who have smaller numbers.

After doing a few calculations (which will be listed below) it came down to:

• a 75% chance of getting more blue essence
• a 25% chance of getting less

Let's take an example case: you have 17000 IP You will have 17000 blue essence at the start of the season.

Alternatively you could buy 10 champion shards, roughly gaining 1470 blue essence (also explained by the calculations below) by doing so. You will now have 17000 18470 blue essence at the start of the season.

My point is that, theoretically, it is beneficial to buy as many champion shards as you can (!) . (!) if you think that a 75% chance is good enough for you. !!!Also make sure to actually disenchant your shards into dust, since it would be a waste otherwise. Keep in mind though that nothing is set in stone and that 6.5 ratio might change, but if things stay as they are it is worth giving it a shot. Thanks for your time reading through a wall of text and the best of luck with the shards if you decide to follow this idea

Math

Cost of a champion shard = 1700

Rough essence value of champions (by IP cost): 6300 - 350 4800 - 303 (293 +10 essence from the champion shard) 3150 - 283 (263 +20 essence from the champion shard) 1350 - 235 (195 +40 essence from the champion shard) 450 - 197 (87 +110 essence from the champion shard)

Multiplied by 6.5: 6300 - 2112.5 (favorable) 4800 - 1969.5 (favorable) 3150 - 1839.5 (favorable) 1350 - 1527.5 (unfavorable) 450 - 1280.5 (unfavorable)

Total champions = 138 Number of champions with favorable results: 32+47+24 = 103 (74,64%) Number of champions with unfavorable results: 22+13 = 35 (25.36%)

Average gain from a favorable champion = 283.63 essence Average loss from an unfavorable champion = 264.26 essence (those numbers come from multiplying the number of champions with their rough essence value and the 6.5 ratio and then doing an average gain/loss which is then compared with the initial 1700 cost of the shard)

The 17000 IP example: 10 shards out of which: 7.5 are worth +2127.225 2.5 are worth** -660.65** adding up to +1466.575 ~1470