Why LP splashing is statistically trash, and how to fix it.

EDIT.) This post has been edited several times, most of what I began with has been updated, formatted, or changed for correctness.

Riot is removing positional queues because players aren't taking their off-role matches seriously.

In actuality, positional queues are being used as a scapegoat for people to vent their frustrations about off-role trolls.

There has and always will be trolls in league of legends, but statistically speaking, the incentives to dodge instead of trolling are astronomically greater than in the old queue.

This post is based on 3 assumptions (I think they're pretty good estimations of where most players are at) 1.) People only care about their main rank 2.) Players gain and lose 20 LP per win on their main role and off-role 3.) Players LP splash 3 LP per win/loss

So let's get down to it, what's wrong with positional queues?

I.) Tiny rewards. II.) Inconsistently effective at giving main rank a boost III.) Lack of choice

1.) When you gain/lose 20 LP per match from your main role, and splash 3 LP per match from your off-role, it takes 7 net wins to net 1 win for your main role. OR, you need to climb 7 divisions in your off-role, to climb 1 division in your main role. Find me someone who can do this that isn't on a smurf account. On average, when you play in your off-role, games are for most people going to be a coin flip as to whether you get winning/losing teammates -unless you're very comfortable in your off-role.

2.) Statistically, with a 50% win chance per game in the off-role (It's probably lower unless there's a big difference in rank between main and off-role), it's pretty damn unlikely you'll win more than 2 games in a row, after which point you're wasting your time trying to boost your main role. this pretty obvious through intuition (obviously people get better but in the short run skill doesn't change much) 2A.)The only time a player SHOULD ALWAYS play out matches in the off-role is from (17-19 LP, 37-39 LP, 57-59 LP, 77-79L LP, or 97-99LP, in the main role). In 9.375% of games, players can decrease wins in their main role to get a promo series, without having any punishment for losing (at the LP points above you would need 1 net win (50% chance to get) in order to achieve a benefit in the main role and 6-7 net losses in a row in the off role for it to hurt the main role.) 2B.) With the same assumption above, the only time a player SHOULD NEVER play matches in the off-role is at (20-22 LP, 40-42 LP, 60-62 LP, 80-82, 100-160 LP in the main role). In 7.5% of matches, a player can only put themselves 1 match further away from promo series by playing in the off-role (at the LP points above you would need 6-7 net wins in the off role for it to benefit the main role and only 1 net loss for it to hurt you.) 2C.) In another 37.5% of matches, you shouldn't play, because you would be in promos, and winning off-role games will NEVER help your main role in promos. So a total of 45% of matches you ALWAYS DODGE in the off-role. As for the other 55.5% of matches, these games ARE ALSO a waste of time to play. It's unlikely you can boost your main role at all playing these matches, so dodging is in your best interest. (UNLESS YOU ARE ALREADY REALLY GOOD AT YOUR OFF-ROLE/ DEDICATE TIME TO IMPROVING YOUR OFF-ROLE, IT WILL BARELY BOOST YOUR MAIN ROLE. 2D.) Basically you should only play 9.375% of off-role matches if you want to boost your main role (at most you will need 1 less game for promo series).

With positional matchmaking, you are able to dodge 100% of autofill games with no penalties but will play 9.375% of these matches because a win benefits you, where a loss doesn't affect you, in 9.375% of autofill matches). In 90.625% of autofill matches, you should dodge, because your main role will not be hurt by dodging. Without positional matchmaking

(All my numbers below assume that there is a completely even likely hood of a player being at 1-160 LP) (Without positional queues, roll a number, between 1-160, (100-160 is considered to be promo series, this number is your current LP).

There is a 46.875% chance where you roll between 0-2, 20-22, 40-42, 60-62, 80-82, 100-160 (rolls you can't dodge on) So you play the off-role match out, or you force your team to dodge 53.125% of 1st time autofill matches (53.125% of matches where you get autofill will hurt match quality) (You only dodge in your first autofill match 46.875% of the time, and the LP penalty doesn't hurt you).

If you get auto-filled a second time (or more), There is a 68.75% chance where you roll between 0-9, 21-29, 41-49, 61-69, 81-89, 100-160 (rolls you can't dodge on). So you play the off-role match out, or you force your team to dodge 68.75% of 2nd-time autofill matches (68.75% of matches where you get autofill will hurt match quality) (You only dodge in your second autofill match 31.25% of the time, and the LP penalty doesn't hurt you).

WHY SHOULDN'T WE REVERT POSITIONAL QUEUES?

The reason positional queues are good is that players don't get shit on for getting their off-role. Players that know how to use the positional ranked queue to boost their main role will see very small benefits. Players that don't understand the system can blame positional queues for teammates not trying in their off-role, but people that troll in their off-role instead of dodging are fucktards. It doesn't hurt them on their main role to dodge, it hurts them (-3 LP) to lose.

We shouldn't go back to the old queue because it fucked people for getting auto-filled ALL THE TIME.

1.) If you play one role, and you're very weak in all your other roles, you will get matched with players in your strongest role, putting you in a position where you lose by playing. (The more prominent autofill is, the more jack of all trades players will be higher elo, This is bad because one-tricks and role mains can produce a much higher level of gameplay if they don't have to focus on every role.)

2.) If you lose by playing, the next best alternative is to dodge. The problem with dodging now is that if you dodge, the penalty is to your main role. In the statistics I used above, players in this queue will dodge between 31.25-46.875% of the time.

In the other 53.125-68.75% of autofill matches, players have 2 choices. They can force the dodge upon their team by threatening to troll, or they can play the game out. If players are good at their off-role, they should play. But for the vast majority of players who are bad at their off-role compared to their elo, should force the dodge upon their team.

tldr; The number of trolls in positional queues SHOULD STATISTICALLY BE MUCH MUCH LOWER than the amount of trolls that would be in the old queue.

Assuming the majority of my statistics are correct, the only explanation for people not trying hard enough in their off-role are because 1.) they don't understand the quirks of positional queues, 2.) they are irrational, 3.) they are fucktards by nature, 4.) they are actually trying but just not performing great.

1-4.) Can all be targeted without removing positional queues, and are more likely BY STATISTICS, to create more negative matches for players. Removing positional queues is a big mistake.

Solution 1.) Remove autofill altogether, Replace it with bonus LP rewards for players who pick roles that would make queue times shorter.

Solution 2.) Increase the amount of LP splashing, so that people don't have to play 10 games to see a tiny boost in their rank. I'm Diamond 4, (demoted), but all of my off-roles are gold 1. I gain 3 LP per game, and as such, I would need to move up 7 divisions to get diamond 3 on my ADC role, probably less because my LP gains should go up, but with this estimate I would get diamond 3 on ADC by getting diamond 3 in mid role, (seems kind of like positional queues almost create the same effect as just having the old queue, but without the cancer dodge pentalties)

Solution 3.) Update dodge pentalties- I don't know how clear I have to make this. This game has had LP dodge penalties, in tandem with game timer penalties forever. Explain to me why this shit hasn't been updated, Theres not a fucking chance in the world that it doesn't negatively effect games and player morale more than it prevents people from creating an unfair advantage over others.

Yeah, it's fucking annoying when people dodge. Without any penalties it would probably happen all the time. Why not change the penalties so that they increase if you dodge at the last second, and they're very small if you dodge in the first second of champ select?

Wouldn't that prevent abuse (using this knowledge to create a significantly unfair advantage over other players), whilst lowering the damage to players that get their LP shit on by teammates banning their champ, teammates hovering 40% WR akali, auto-filled, HIGHLY undesirable teams (all AD, all AP, all hyper carries, all off-meta trollish picks)

Keep in mind, after 2 dodges in an autofill role the queue timer becomes 30 minutes, which players instantly weigh in their mind against estimated match time, and then decide to play/troll/not give a shit, because they can go next faster. I would suggest that the queue timer across the board gets dropped below 10 minutes, or removed.

Conclusion:

Through statistics, I have been able to determine that positional queues SHOULD lead to better match quality and competition than in the old queue.

Through intuition, It is very clear that autofill reduces queue timers at the expense of match quality.

Through statistics and intuition together, the biggest detriment to match quality probably comes from excessive dodge penalties, which create frustration for everyone. Dodge penalties are more than 5x harsher in the old system than they are in the current one.

Removing incentives to force dodges upon others, and increasing the incentives to dodge for yourself is the only way to fix match quality.

Jumping the gun because more reports are coming in about positional queues is wrong. It's not based on actual evidence, it's based on impulsive people quick to blame a new system for problems that have always existed.

Scrapping positional queues is a big step back, make logical decisions and empirical data, not an increase in players blaming positional queues.

Feels like positional queues are a scapegoat for an "increase" (statistically, there should be a decrease in trolls -So I'm assuming players are just being more vocal about trolls because they have something to blame it on)

EDIT.) tldr; a switch back to the old system will lower match quality, increase the amount of players trolling in champ select, and raise frustration among players trying to climb the ladder.

EDIT.) This post has been edited several times, most of what I began with has been updated, formatted, or changed for correctness.