I understand your frustration, and I agree with your point about carry top laners, jungle influence will definitely swing that lane. But as a jungler, I will say I don't just start anywhere. My start is specific to the answers to three questions.
Firstly, what level is my gank strongest? If I'm playing Skarner, Cho'gath or Shyvana, unless the enemy is stupidly pushing ahead/trying to proxy farm, you really want to wait for level 6 and the fastest way to get to level 6 is a specific path starting Blue and ending on Red jungle. So if you are playing with these champs, you will have a top lane gank about 50% of the time at level 6 and you should know to let the laner push into your tower to make the gank easier for your jungler. That level would be different for champions like Warwick, Kayn, Maokai, etc.
Secondly, does the champ I are playing have to start at a specific buff? Hecarim for instance can't complete a level 3 clear without starting Blue buff. If he starts at Raptors, then goes to red and to blue, he has to either wait with his thumb up his butt while he regens health and mana, back and waste more time than waiting, or go clear scuttle while waiting for the blue buff, all of which result in him getting behind in levels and being unable to effectively countergank his enemy jungler. Skarner for instance has a very strange but specific clear which is Blue > Gromp > Wolves > Raptors > Red > Scuttle > Back > Gromp > Wolves. This gets him his fastest level 6 and allows him to clear the camps with highest efficiency because he doesn't have to leave his Spire-Zone.
Finally, once I have figured out what the answers to those questions are, then you look at I look at my lane match-ups. Sadly, in this meta, many junglers set themselves up to 2:35 gank at level 3 either mid lane or bot lane. 9/10 times, it is just safer, players don't expect it so quickly, and it can be very effective. Normally, top laners get wards in around 2:10 so we know we are going to be stepping on a ward, and the match up normally isn't a carry vs a carry. Often it's carry vs tank or enemy carry vs tank. If it's my carry, I assume you can hold out until level 4-6 for me to make my gank, since the enemy tank isn't dealing too much damage to you/you should be able to kite him and since bot lane is such a stomp lane in this meta they need a level 3 gank priority. If it is carry v carry though, I absolutely will be looking to gank your lane at level 3 but it depends on the other lanes.
I haven't even gone over my enemy jungler and what I have to do against them to predict their movements and the way lanes are pushing (like if you're pushed up and want me to tower dive at level 3 that's really not smart and hopefully they've been warded up or they'll be getting ganked), but effectively (and sadly for you as a top laner, I top secondary so I know where you're coming from), it's a statistic. It should be 33% of the time you get first gank in a fair world. But due to the meta, the snowballiness of the current game, and general speed at which games are ending recently, Bot gets pushed up to about a 60% level 3 gank necessity, mid gets knocked back to about a 25% gank priority, and top because of the versatility of the role (being carries or tanks and never being 100% chance of always being the same type of match up about 25% of games will have carry v carry, 25% with tank v tank, etc.) it really knocks you guys back to 15% of games you will play getting first gank priority.
Don't get me wrong, I play carry top laner's like Quinn, Yorick, Kled and Camille, but in the meta as it is now, in my mind, my ideal team comp would be an ADC, a tank support, a tanky top laner, a strong AP mid, and a strong AD/tank mix jungler who can take towers himself. You have two front line champs for team fights, a mid line champ who can still defend his carries, and an AD and an AP carry to DPS the other team. When not team fighting, You can split 2-1-2 with the two carries with a tank to protect them or 2-1-1 with Tank top bot side splitting, and the rest of the team pressuring baron or dragon depending.
Just the thoughts/reasonings of a jungler who really hates the role but doesn't trust other players in my ELO to know what they're doing and make better judgement calls from the role. Again, sorry you're in that situation and had that happen in your games.
is normally the solution.
